Week 3 Plays...........

[Scott4USC]

YTD Results
+ 6.05 units ($500 unit)
+ $3,025


Sat. plays

13 units
Fresno St. +3 -117 over Oregon (3 units)
Fresno St. +3 -120 over Oregon (2 units)
Fresno St. ML +128 over Oregon (2 units)
Fresno St. +3.5 -120 over Oregon (6 units)

7 units
South Carolina +3 -117 over Alabama (2 units)
South Carolina +2 -106 over Alabama (4 units)
South Carolina +3.5 -130 over Alabama (1 unit)

4 units
West Virginia +5.5 -121 over Maryland (pinny)

3 units
Clemson +7.5 -120 over Miami

2 units
Central Michigan +24 over Penn State (pinny)

2 units
Louisiana Tech/Kansas Under 48.5

2 units
Idaho/Washington OVER 57

2 units
Missouri -19.5 -115 over Troy

2 units
CAL -21 over Illinois

****

Edit1: added Louisiana Tech/Kansas Under 48.5

Edit2: added Utah -2.5

Edit3: added Clemson +7.5 & Idaho/WA OVER 57

Edit4: added Fresno St. +3 & ML

Edit5: added Utah -2.5 & -160 ML

Edit6: added FSU +3, SC +2, Missouri -19.5, and edited Utah loser out

Edit7: added CAL -21

Edit8: added S. Carolina +3.5

Edit9: added Fresno St. +3.5

 

[hawkeye]

I can't believe that West Va line?? GL

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Just an FYI

Maryland's beaten WVa 32-20, 48-17, 34-17 and lost 16-19 in OT ly in a game that they missed a late FG and were -4 in turnovers. Freidgen has Rodriguez's number and that's why the line is where it's at.

GL, though

 

[buddy]

My research shows you'll go 1-2 and the one you win will be by the skin of your teeth.

 

[Cal-Neva]

i like maryland

 

[Scott4USC]

Just an FYI

Maryland's beaten WVa 32-20, 48-17, 34-17 and lost 16-19 in OT ly in a game that they missed a late FG and were -4 in turnovers. Freidgen has Rodriguez's number and that's why the line is where it's at.

GL, though

Good stuff. Thanks for bringing it to my attention. But I am a strong believer that Rodriquez is a better coach. Marylands season is going into a downward spiral.

Cal-Neva

Would you like to share your thoughts on why you like Maryland over WVU? Line is going down so that is good for you. Would like to hear your take.

*If the South Carolina line rises, I will be adding more to it.

 

[BuffaloBill]

I really like Maryland in this spot. I saw the wvu vs. syracuse and I really wasn't impressed with wvu at all. Maryland has not looked that impressive either, but they should have beat clemson by more than a touchdown. They just had a mental breakdown. In my opinion clemson is a decent team and wvu might not be much better. I didn't like the way that either wvu qb looked, and maryland owns wvu over the years. Every year for the past 4 years I have thought that wvu was the play against maryland, and every year I have been wrong. Will not make that mistake again this year. I am taking maryland, and I don't care what the line is. I also think maryland will be fired up after the loss last week. With my luck, this will be the first year that wvu covers, but I don't care, I am still taking maryland here.

 

[gman2]

that central michigan game at penn state is really intriguing. im probably the only person on the planet that is intrigued by a game with a 23-pt spread, but cmu is just one of those teams that can be really good....or really bad depending on the day. kent smith was incredible last week against miami. the vince young of the mac, lol. seriously. just destroyed miami with his legs and passing as well. psu will be a huge test for him. as high as i am on cmu as a sleeper in the mac, i dont like the setup. 2nd game in a row on the road, and theyre coming off an outright win against miami as a 22-pt dog. no doubt it does wonders for their confidence, but theyve been on an emotional high for two weeks (first game on national tv in forever against indy, then road trip to miami). cmu is capable of hanging, but i am a bit scared here. nonetheless, its definitely a game im going to be keeping an eye on

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 2 units Louisiana Tech/Kansas Under 48.5 (pinny)

*thinking about making Utah a play over TCU. I am upset that line went from -2.5 to -3.

 

[buddy]

No fear. If PSU is careless enough to get backdoored with two td's in 50 seconds, cen mich will come into Happy Valley with the attitude they can beat this team outright.

I think cen mich covers and PSU better watch their p's and q's.

 

[Scott4USC]

Louisiana Tech/Kansas UNDER 48.5 :thumb:

Kansas has scored in the 30's and averaged 400 yds of total offense vs Fl Atlantic and appy State. La Tech of course faced Florida and realistically the 162 yards of total offense reflect their point total of 3 points. I think the strength of Kansas is their defense contrary to what some may think. I think 48.5pts is a lot of pts for these 2 teams to cover. Weather might be an issue too. A decent chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday. I will gladly capitalize on that!

 

[Cal-Neva]

like Bobbybluechip said maryland been dominate the series
i like maryland at home plus the points

 

[Cal-Neva]

my bad i like maryland at home and favor 3.5
by game time i think it down to a FG that would be great

 

[soljah67]

Was looking at Central Michigan as well. I'm also leaning on Toledo at the half and Wisconsin. Look at the Toledo scores, they kill their opponets at the half and coast the second half for a victory. temple will fall subject to this trend as well. Toledo QB Gradkowski is the real deal and to me is under the radar for now.

 

[Scott4USC]

Added 1 unit Utah -2.5 -120 over TCU (badlands)

Did this late last night and looks like it is now -3.5 everywhere. I would recommend buying it down to -3 -120. I have to win a weeknight game this season, right?

 

[taoist]

Be careful with that So. Carolina play.... I have Bama by 8. I'm not trying to talk you out of the play, but don't put too much stock in the Georgia game last weekend. Good luck this week.

 

[Scott4USC]

Be careful with that So. Carolina play.... I have Bama by 8. I'm not trying to talk you out of the play, but don't put too much stock in the Georgia game last weekend. Good luck this week.

Warning noted!

I'll try and put up some write-ups on my plays. I really like S. Carolina and I am tempted to make it a 5 unit play. No offense to you but I hope people keep betting Alabama. Original line was S. Carolina -1. This is the classic type of game where books make $$$.

 

[Scott4USC]

Central Michigan :thumb:

Penn St. is 0-7 ATS off a home win the past three seasons. :yup Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS as dogs 21 or more pts. :yup I think CMU will be the more motivated team in this game. Penn St. is one of those classic teams who often plays down to their competition. PSU might also be looking ahead to playing @Northwestern next week to open up conf. play. I cross my fingers :mj09: PSU comes out sluggish.

As gman2 noted earlier in this thread, Central Michigan is a talented squad. I think PSU will have trouble defending a mobile QB who has the talent to throw the ball effectively. Especially if PSU's heart is not really in this one. You usually have to play disciplined football to stop a mobile QB from running on you. PSU this year has had trouble putting pressure on the QB. With CMU QB Smith being mobile, I think he will have lots of time to throw down field. Look at some stats and tell me if CMU deserves to be 24pt underdogs.

*Rushing yards/game, CMU 190, PSU 206,
*RYPA CMU 5.4 vs PSU 5.4,

Where CMU has the advantage is they average 226 passing yards per game and Penn State allows 244 passing yards per game and Penn St. did it to powerhouse teams such as UCF and Cincinnati.

I will gladly take 24pts and hope CMU puts on a good showing! If not, this game has backdoor written all over it. We all know PSU will let a team backdoor them! The only thing stopping me from making this bigger than 2 unit play is the CMU defense. Not very good.

An added bonus.......

PSU HC Joe Paterno said CMU is the toughest and most like a Big Ten team they have faced to date.

GO CHIPPEWAS!

 

[Scott4USC]

West Virginia :thumb:

Although in the past 6 years, Maryland has handled WVU on paper and the field 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS vs WVU HC Rodriguez this Saturdays game in my mind makes the past not that relevant. I think Rodriguez is a better coach than the Fridge. LINK This is a huge game for WVU, Maryland's season is already on the downslide, and after this Saturday the rate of acceleration will increase faster.

Right now the line is +3.5 across the board and I still love WVU +3.5. Maryland has only averaged a total of 263 total yards of offense/game in their first two games, a squeaker win vs Navy and a loss @ home to Clemson where they blew a 10 point lead in the last 8 minutes of the game.

Run the ball, stop the run for WVU (granted one of WVU's games and wins was against Wofford). West Virginia averages 255 rushing yards per game, Maryland 133. Rushing yards per attempt for WVU is 4.6 vs 3.4 for MD.

On defense, WVU only allows 48 rushing yards per game vs Maryland allowing 180. Check this out. WVU allows 1.4 rushing yards per attempt vs Maryland allowing a staggering 4.04.

I am loving WVU more and more in this game. They should control the LOS. I also think if WVU establishes a run game early, they will torch the Maryland secondary who I think is weak.

I don't think Maryland is strong at OL and they do not have a strong rushing attack. Their QB is average and more importantly a pocket passer who is prone to making mistakes. WVU has an attacking style of defense that should confuse the MD OL. Therefore, I am forecasting multiple QB SACKS! Maryland QB will struggle under pressure. IMO WVU has a top 10 defense in the country.

Even though recent history of Friedgen vs Rodriguez seems to favor MD, the bigger picture in this rivalry is in past games the underdog in this series is 29-4 ATS, and 28-5 SU. :yup

An added bonus.......

West Virginia is 7-3 ATS last 3 years on grass
Maryland is 1-4 ATS as non conf. favs

Go Mountaineers!

 

[Dr. Little]

Good luck this week from the looks of your results the last two weeks you will need it.