Week 3 Plays...........
- Thread starter Scott4USC
- Start date
Yea i guess if I played the 2nd half of every game I bet after all my plays to recoup all my potential losses I may be up a couple of units too but I dont want to sit on the internet all day long. :mj07:
Scott4USC said:West Virginia :thumb:
Although in the past 6 years, Maryland has handled WVU on paper and the field 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS vs WVU HC Rodriguez this Saturdays game in my mind makes the past not that relevant. I think Rodriguez is a better coach than the Fridge. LINK This is a huge game for WVU, Maryland's season is already on the downslide, and after this Saturday the rate of acceleration will increase faster.
Right now the line is +3.5 across the board and I still love WVU +3.5. Maryland has only averaged a total of 263 total yards of offense/game in their first two games, a squeaker win vs Navy and a loss @ home to Clemson where they blew a 10 point lead in the last 8 minutes of the game.
Run the ball, stop the run for WVU (granted one of WVU's games and wins was against Wofford). West Virginia averages 255 rushing yards per game, Maryland 133. Rushing yards per attempt for WVU is 4.6 vs 3.4 for MD.
On defense, WVU only allows 48 rushing yards per game vs Maryland allowing 180. Check this out. WVU allows 1.4 rushing yards per attempt vs Maryland allowing a staggering 4.04.
I am loving WVU more and more in this game. They should control the LOS. I also think if WVU establishes a run game early, they will torch the Maryland secondary who I think is weak.
I don't think Maryland is strong at OL and they do not have a strong rushing attack. Their QB is average and more importantly a pocket passer who is prone to making mistakes. WVU has an attacking style of defense that should confuse the MD OL. Therefore, I am forecasting multiple QB SACKS! Maryland QB will struggle under pressure. IMO WVU has a top 10 defense in the country.
Even though recent history of Friedgen vs Rodriguez seems to favor MD, the bigger picture in this rivalry is in past games the underdog in this series is 29-4 ATS, and 28-5 SU. :yup
An added bonus.......
West Virginia is 7-3 ATS last 3 years on grass
Maryland is 1-4 ATS as non conf. favs
Go Mountaineers!
i'm gonna bite SCOTT.....i think they beat em too :mj14:
Adding 3 units Clemson +7.5 -120 over Miami (betcris)
Adding 2 units Idaho/Washington OVER 57 (betcris)
Adding 2 units Idaho/Washington OVER 57 (betcris)
Clemson :thumb:
First of all Miami with Larry coker as HC is only 1-3 ATS following an ATS loss, moreover, the past 9 years, the Hurricanes are 7-2 SU, but only 1-8 ATS following a bye week. On top of those statistics, I am not a fan of Coker. I think Miami would be better off without him. I always enjoy betting against Miami because they don't get the most out of their talent. A lot of that has to do with coaching. I also don't think Miami makes good in game adjustments. Just not a fan of Coker.
I have been somewhat impressed with Clemson this season. Clemson has answered the bell this college season with hard earned wins in their first two games. Remember, no other team in college football fears Miami less than the Clemson Tigers, Clemson beat Miami last year @Miami as +16.5 dogs. Impressive! (remember my Coker comments)
Clemson IMO has huge advantage in QB play. I think there is high prob. Miami turns the ball over at least twice in death valley. I will be surprised if Miami plays error free football with a QB making his 2nd career start and on the road. Kyle Wright should make mistakes and asking him to beat Clemson by more than a TD is too much.
The following is a money maker trend. Play against road favorites between 3.5 and 10 points off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent off a road win, this fact is 24-4 ATS since 1992, and that is 86% my friends and this FACT can't be ignored. Miami -3.5 @FSU lost, and Clemson won last week on the road against Maryland. :spotting:
I am not strictly a trend player but I'll say it again, this trend CANNOT be ignored.
*Clemson is also 7-1 ATS as home dogs 7 or more pts!
Now I need to find another trend to make it a TRIPLE COMBO!.......... FOUND IT! :shocked:
*Miami is 1-10 ATS as FAVS less than 24pts off a straight up loss!
Now I got 3 powerful trends working my way in this game that are a combined 41-6 ATS!
Last week I said ND was my TREND GOY and I won 1 unit. I guess I can have TREND GOY #2 with Clemson and I will throw 3 big units on it!
Need one more trend?......... Here you go. Clemson is 4-1 ATS off a SU and ATS win vs opponent with revenge!
Let me combine "ALL" the trends I posted that are working in my favor. After tallying them up, I got...........
56-9 ATS Trends in my favor! :em71:
Go Tigers! grrrrrrrr :142smilie
First of all Miami with Larry coker as HC is only 1-3 ATS following an ATS loss, moreover, the past 9 years, the Hurricanes are 7-2 SU, but only 1-8 ATS following a bye week. On top of those statistics, I am not a fan of Coker. I think Miami would be better off without him. I always enjoy betting against Miami because they don't get the most out of their talent. A lot of that has to do with coaching. I also don't think Miami makes good in game adjustments. Just not a fan of Coker.
I have been somewhat impressed with Clemson this season. Clemson has answered the bell this college season with hard earned wins in their first two games. Remember, no other team in college football fears Miami less than the Clemson Tigers, Clemson beat Miami last year @Miami as +16.5 dogs. Impressive! (remember my Coker comments)
Clemson IMO has huge advantage in QB play. I think there is high prob. Miami turns the ball over at least twice in death valley. I will be surprised if Miami plays error free football with a QB making his 2nd career start and on the road. Kyle Wright should make mistakes and asking him to beat Clemson by more than a TD is too much.
The following is a money maker trend. Play against road favorites between 3.5 and 10 points off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent off a road win, this fact is 24-4 ATS since 1992, and that is 86% my friends and this FACT can't be ignored. Miami -3.5 @FSU lost, and Clemson won last week on the road against Maryland. :spotting:
I am not strictly a trend player but I'll say it again, this trend CANNOT be ignored.
*Clemson is also 7-1 ATS as home dogs 7 or more pts!
Now I need to find another trend to make it a TRIPLE COMBO!.......... FOUND IT! :shocked:
*Miami is 1-10 ATS as FAVS less than 24pts off a straight up loss!
Now I got 3 powerful trends working my way in this game that are a combined 41-6 ATS!
Last week I said ND was my TREND GOY and I won 1 unit. I guess I can have TREND GOY #2 with Clemson and I will throw 3 big units on it!
Need one more trend?......... Here you go. Clemson is 4-1 ATS off a SU and ATS win vs opponent with revenge!
Let me combine "ALL" the trends I posted that are working in my favor. After tallying them up, I got...........
56-9 ATS Trends in my favor! :em71:
Go Tigers! grrrrrrrr :142smilie
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Nice stuff on the Clemson/Miami game. i was leaning hard towards the hurricanes but those trends are hard to ignore. maybe i was putting too much stock in the revenge factor. Thanks and keep the good info coming.
Utah :thumb:
Do you think Utah can score 28pts against TCU? I DO! That is the magic number.
In the last 3 years, Utah is 15-4 ATS when they score 28+ points, conversely TCU is 0-6 ATS last 2 seasons when they give up 28 points.
Utah rushes for 234 yards per game with a 5.4 rushing yards per attempt.
TCU rushes for 82.4 yards per game with only a 2.6 rushing yards per attempt.
FYI, TCU RB Hobbs aka "Mr fumble" is not 100% healthy for this game.
An added bonus.........
Utah is 15-1 ATS after playing Utah St
Utah is 6-1 ATS in weekday games
TCU is 3-10 ATS in their conf. openers since 1992
Utah is 9-2 ATS their last 11 road openers of the season
Without question the trends are pointing to a Utah cover! :yup
Go Utes!
Do you think Utah can score 28pts against TCU? I DO! That is the magic number.
In the last 3 years, Utah is 15-4 ATS when they score 28+ points, conversely TCU is 0-6 ATS last 2 seasons when they give up 28 points.
Utah rushes for 234 yards per game with a 5.4 rushing yards per attempt.
TCU rushes for 82.4 yards per game with only a 2.6 rushing yards per attempt.
FYI, TCU RB Hobbs aka "Mr fumble" is not 100% healthy for this game.
An added bonus.........
Utah is 15-1 ATS after playing Utah St
Utah is 6-1 ATS in weekday games
TCU is 3-10 ATS in their conf. openers since 1992
Utah is 9-2 ATS their last 11 road openers of the season
Without question the trends are pointing to a Utah cover! :yup
Go Utes!
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Scott, does the line not look fishy here? Feels like a trap game to me. I couldn't possibly see putting any money on TCU but I am thinking about putting some coins on the under as I see a low scoring game. I don't think Hobbs will play tonight listening to some talk shows and if he does, I don't see him being a huge factor. I think Patterson has to load up the line and stop the run (or try to) and force Utah's young gun to beat them in the air. Any thoughts?
BTW...only want action on this game because I am going. Thanks, JP
BTW...only want action on this game because I am going. Thanks, JP
Adding 3 units Fresno St. +3 -117 over Oregon (pinny)
Adding 2 units Fresno St. ML +128 over Oregon (pinny)
I was waiting all week for this game to rise to +3 and I don't think it is going to happen. If it goes to +2 I can't buy it to +3 without paying huge price. So I rather buy it from 2.5 to +3 and be safe. Also +128 ML would go down as well.
jpblack34
I am thinking about adding 2 more units on Utah. But if I do, I have to buy it down to -3 and of course pay -120 vig. I have yet to win a weekday game this year but tonight should be my lucky night!
Thanks for the report on Hobbs. I am going to hope some people put big $$$ on TCU over Utah and drive line down to -3.
Utah is good team and rushing stats completely favor Utah. I am a big believer games are won/lost in the trenches. Utah is very capable of having success throwing the ball too. I think Utah wins by 7-10pts. Look at the trends. Utah plays well after Utah St. Utah is always prepared for road conf. openers. Utah excels on weeknight games. TCU doesn't cover the spread if they give up 28 or more pts. I think Utah should score over 30pts.
Adding 2 units Fresno St. ML +128 over Oregon (pinny)
I was waiting all week for this game to rise to +3 and I don't think it is going to happen. If it goes to +2 I can't buy it to +3 without paying huge price. So I rather buy it from 2.5 to +3 and be safe. Also +128 ML would go down as well.
jpblack34
I am thinking about adding 2 more units on Utah. But if I do, I have to buy it down to -3 and of course pay -120 vig. I have yet to win a weekday game this year but tonight should be my lucky night!
Thanks for the report on Hobbs. I am going to hope some people put big $$$ on TCU over Utah and drive line down to -3.
Utah is good team and rushing stats completely favor Utah. I am a big believer games are won/lost in the trenches. Utah is very capable of having success throwing the ball too. I think Utah wins by 7-10pts. Look at the trends. Utah plays well after Utah St. Utah is always prepared for road conf. openers. Utah excels on weeknight games. TCU doesn't cover the spread if they give up 28 or more pts. I think Utah should score over 30pts.
Adding 2 units Utah -2.5 -130 over TCU
*that makes 5 units total on Utah tonight. I felt it was only worth 1 unit earlier in the week but after thinking about it for few days, I decided to pound it. I originally was only going to add to it if Utah went down to -2.5 -110 but it didn't and instead it went back up to -3.5. Tonight I end my losing streak on weeknight games and will start the weekend on a positive note!
*that makes 5 units total on Utah tonight. I felt it was only worth 1 unit earlier in the week but after thinking about it for few days, I decided to pound it. I originally was only going to add to it if Utah went down to -2.5 -110 but it didn't and instead it went back up to -3.5. Tonight I end my losing streak on weeknight games and will start the weekend on a positive note!
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Good luck with your plays this week. I already played Utah earlier in week. Line has just moved to -3 at BetJamica.
Line has just moved to -3 at BetJamica.Thanks watrdogg. I will be very pissed if Utah doesn't cover. Mostly because of the vig I lost. I originally thought the line would go back down to 3 but it didn't so I pulled the trigger. Hours later it goes down! :cursin:
Pulling the trigger early might cost me $300 in vig if Utah doesn't cover.
Utah is not losing!
Pulling the trigger early might cost me $300 in vig if Utah doesn't cover.
Utah is not losing!
GOING FOR THE MIDDLE!!!!!!
5 units TCU +.5 2h -117 over Utah (pinny)
Start of this game Utah dominated and was looking the way I was hoping. 2q TCU made adjustments and now I think there is only a 60% of Utah covering. Not going to risk 5 units of profit on those odds. Instead I will play it safer and go for the sweet middle and cash in on 10 units!
I have tried to 4 middles this year and am 0-4 despite 2/4 having 10+pt middle opportunities!!!
This Utah QB is a stud but he might throw a costly INT in 2h. He is only 18 years old and I can't risk that especially if TCU gets ball first in 2h and scores on drive. I wish Utah was ahead by 7pts then I would risk it because then Utah has huge margin for error. 3pts is not. I also thought Utah would have had easier time rushing the ball. TCU is playing good rush defense. Their pass defense is suspect.
5 units TCU +.5 2h -117 over Utah (pinny)
Start of this game Utah dominated and was looking the way I was hoping. 2q TCU made adjustments and now I think there is only a 60% of Utah covering. Not going to risk 5 units of profit on those odds. Instead I will play it safer and go for the sweet middle and cash in on 10 units!
I have tried to 4 middles this year and am 0-4 despite 2/4 having 10+pt middle opportunities!!!
This Utah QB is a stud but he might throw a costly INT in 2h. He is only 18 years old and I can't risk that especially if TCU gets ball first in 2h and scores on drive. I wish Utah was ahead by 7pts then I would risk it because then Utah has huge margin for error. 3pts is not. I also thought Utah would have had easier time rushing the ball. TCU is playing good rush defense. Their pass defense is suspect.
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Thur. Results
1-1
-2 units ($500 unit)
- $1000
SO SO close to winning 10 units. One of these days I'll cash one of these. Utah got screwed by refs twice at end. Might have been difference in me winning 10 units! Although I was rooting badly for TCU to cover for different reasons.
If I won 5 units tonight on Utah I was going to put 3 more on S. Carolina and 2 more on Fresno St. Now I have to re-strategize although I saved myself 5 units tonight! As I expected, TCU dominated the ground game in the 2h. But part of the reason was Utah RB having cramps. Tonight somewhat makes up for my big loss on KSU 2h when I originally had Marshall +10. I apologize to those who jumped on Utah. I think it was the right side but only worth the 1 unit which was my original wager.
I am still winless on weeknights!
Difficult to have monster weekends when you are in a negative heading into Sat. games.
1-1
-2 units ($500 unit)
- $1000
SO SO close to winning 10 units. One of these days I'll cash one of these. Utah got screwed by refs twice at end. Might have been difference in me winning 10 units!
Although I was rooting badly for TCU to cover for different reasons. If I won 5 units tonight on Utah I was going to put 3 more on S. Carolina and 2 more on Fresno St. Now I have to re-strategize although I saved myself 5 units tonight!
As I expected, TCU dominated the ground game in the 2h. But part of the reason was Utah RB having cramps. Tonight somewhat makes up for my big loss on KSU 2h when I originally had Marshall +10. I apologize to those who jumped on Utah. I think it was the right side but only worth the 1 unit which was my original wager. I am still winless on weeknights!
Difficult to have monster weekends when you are in a negative heading into Sat. games.
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After going to the game, and seeing the whole thing from a fan's perspective, that tcu defensive line was awesome. I felt like they won that game. Tcu's special teams might be the worst in the nation, as #17, whoever he was, might have the worst hands I have ever seen. And there punter probably averaged about 28 yards per. Utah didn't look too special either. Gameplan kept them in the shotgun ALOT! which hurt them in my opinion. QB looks like he has the potential to be great, but he has a long way to go. GL the rest of the weekend as I like a lot of your games picked. Good job buying back most of your bet also....JP
jpblack34
Thanks and good post. You are absolutely correct the DL for TCU took complete control of the game from middle 3q and entire 4th quarter. Also the TCU RB's made great runs. However, I think the game would have taken a different turn if RB Ganthers was at full strength. Utah still had a chance to win it. TCU HC had faith in his frosh RB while Utah HC didn't. I don't blame the Utah HC. On the road you can't risk making turnovers that would decide the game. Utah defense was playing well. I said the key # was 28pts for Utah. I think they would have reached 28pts with a healthy Ganthers. TCU I think had zero turnovers. Surprised by that.
IMO there were 2 key pts in the game where Utah could have made this a blowout. #1 was in the 1h where Utah was driving and had a 3rd and 1 at the 40/50 yard line. What happens? False start penalty and Utah doesn't convert 3rd and 6. I think Utah puts pts on the board on that drive and TCU gets down on themselves. After that drive, TCU defense for the most part seemed to regroup and make adjustments. That $hit irks me. You can't have false start 3rd and 1 when you are driving and near 50 yard line.
Remember in 1h where Utah had WIDE OPEN WR with NOBODY in front of him and Utah QB never looked that dudes way and threw a 10 yard 1st down pass instead. That cost Utah 7pts because that was a guaranteed TD. You might not remember because you were @the game but Utah had a WR wide open.
Utah corrects those 2 plays and I think Utah has a 13-17pt halftime lead. You can't make those mistakes and those were easy plays Utah could have made. EASY! IMO this TCU team would have given up if Utah jumped on them.
When you cap a game and that $hit happens, I get very frustrated. Part of the reasons I buy my bets back. Other reason is I bet so much so I can't afford stupid $hit to cost me $$$. If I am up 10 units at the end of the season, I make $5,000 profit. Quality units vs Quantity units! Now if I am up 10-20 units I can let that go. Right now I have to be careful until I have that monster weekend. Sat. I'll be @ the USC game so prob. no buying my bets back if things are not going as planned, unless my laptop gets internet connection on campus. But I still won't be watching the games. Basically I only play 2h wagers on non USC home games.
Thanks and good post. You are absolutely correct the DL for TCU took complete control of the game from middle 3q and entire 4th quarter. Also the TCU RB's made great runs. However, I think the game would have taken a different turn if RB Ganthers was at full strength. Utah still had a chance to win it. TCU HC had faith in his frosh RB while Utah HC didn't. I don't blame the Utah HC. On the road you can't risk making turnovers that would decide the game. Utah defense was playing well. I said the key # was 28pts for Utah. I think they would have reached 28pts with a healthy Ganthers. TCU I think had zero turnovers. Surprised by that.
IMO there were 2 key pts in the game where Utah could have made this a blowout. #1 was in the 1h where Utah was driving and had a 3rd and 1 at the 40/50 yard line. What happens? False start penalty and Utah doesn't convert 3rd and 6. I think Utah puts pts on the board on that drive and TCU gets down on themselves. After that drive, TCU defense for the most part seemed to regroup and make adjustments. That $hit irks me. You can't have false start 3rd and 1 when you are driving and near 50 yard line.
Remember in 1h where Utah had WIDE OPEN WR with NOBODY in front of him and Utah QB never looked that dudes way and threw a 10 yard 1st down pass instead. That cost Utah 7pts because that was a guaranteed TD. You might not remember because you were @the game but Utah had a WR wide open.
Utah corrects those 2 plays and I think Utah has a 13-17pt halftime lead. You can't make those mistakes and those were easy plays Utah could have made. EASY!
IMO this TCU team would have given up if Utah jumped on them.When you cap a game and that $hit happens, I get very frustrated. Part of the reasons I buy my bets back. Other reason is I bet so much so I can't afford stupid $hit to cost me $$$. If I am up 10 units at the end of the season, I make $5,000 profit. Quality units vs Quantity units!
Now if I am up 10-20 units I can let that go. Right now I have to be careful until I have that monster weekend. Sat. I'll be @ the USC game so prob. no buying my bets back if things are not going as planned, unless my laptop gets internet connection on campus. But I still won't be watching the games. Basically I only play 2h wagers on non USC home games.
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South Carolina :thumb:
Last year South Carolina beat Alabama @ Tuscaloosa with coach Holz's verbal hype and far inferior talent compared to this years real motivated HC, Steve Spurrier who is getting his squad better as each practice and film session ends. Spurrier's devotion to beating Alabama in Columbia this weekend is becoming almost as intense as his perpetual devotion and then doing it of continually embarrassing Tennessee in the past, and now again in the present and future.
Alabama with all their talent are becoming a joke, and serious Crimson Tide football fans are not even smiling, is it a lack of leadership? Then last week they failed to cover against a messy So Miss team whose players were forced to live out of suitcases the past 10 days in Memphis and ate 90% fast food in between their nomadic hiatus away from Hattiesburg. A real credit to HC of So Miss.
I watched parts of the Alabama/MTSU game and this Crimson team offensively is very ordinary. MTSU with one player (Clint Marks) who Alabama wouldn?t even consider having on its team stood toe to toe with them two weeks ago. Alabama does have the 2nd rated rushing defense in the country, but in the last 7 seasons are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their Road openers each season, and in a couple of those previous seasons they were playing squads less formidable than is South Carolina who is getting better each practice.
Alabama is weak and inexperienced at the OL position. I will take advantage of that and don?t think they will have success playing on the road. South Carolina?s strength on D isn?t stopping the run but I don?t think Alabama?s OL outclasses SC?s DL. South Carolina D was tested @Georgia and came out ok. They did good job in getting pressure on UGA QB. However, South Carolina should be able to take advantage of the pass d of Alabama. SC?s offense will be the best offense Alabama?s D has faced.
As I mentioned above, South Carolina holds huge advantage in coaching and I expect SC to be the better prepared team. This game being played @SC makes this a potential big play for me. Right now I have 2 solid units on it and I prob. will be adding more on gameday. I am hoping $$$ go on Alabama and I will take SC on the ML.
The magic # for SC here is 22 points and I think they will get it at home against a very average Alabama pass defense. South Carolina is 21-6 ATS and Alabama is 5-16 ATS when their opponent does since 1992. SC should score over 22pts on Saturday!
Go Gamecocks!
Last year South Carolina beat Alabama @ Tuscaloosa with coach Holz's verbal hype and far inferior talent compared to this years real motivated HC, Steve Spurrier who is getting his squad better as each practice and film session ends. Spurrier's devotion to beating Alabama in Columbia this weekend is becoming almost as intense as his perpetual devotion and then doing it of continually embarrassing Tennessee in the past, and now again in the present and future.
Alabama with all their talent are becoming a joke, and serious Crimson Tide football fans are not even smiling, is it a lack of leadership? Then last week they failed to cover against a messy So Miss team whose players were forced to live out of suitcases the past 10 days in Memphis and ate 90% fast food in between their nomadic hiatus away from Hattiesburg. A real credit to HC of So Miss.
I watched parts of the Alabama/MTSU game and this Crimson team offensively is very ordinary. MTSU with one player (Clint Marks) who Alabama wouldn?t even consider having on its team stood toe to toe with them two weeks ago. Alabama does have the 2nd rated rushing defense in the country, but in the last 7 seasons are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their Road openers each season, and in a couple of those previous seasons they were playing squads less formidable than is South Carolina who is getting better each practice.
Alabama is weak and inexperienced at the OL position. I will take advantage of that and don?t think they will have success playing on the road. South Carolina?s strength on D isn?t stopping the run but I don?t think Alabama?s OL outclasses SC?s DL. South Carolina D was tested @Georgia and came out ok. They did good job in getting pressure on UGA QB. However, South Carolina should be able to take advantage of the pass d of Alabama. SC?s offense will be the best offense Alabama?s D has faced.
As I mentioned above, South Carolina holds huge advantage in coaching and I expect SC to be the better prepared team. This game being played @SC makes this a potential big play for me. Right now I have 2 solid units on it and I prob. will be adding more on gameday. I am hoping $$$ go on Alabama and I will take SC on the ML.
The magic # for SC here is 22 points and I think they will get it at home against a very average Alabama pass defense. South Carolina is 21-6 ATS and Alabama is 5-16 ATS when their opponent does since 1992. SC should score over 22pts on Saturday!
Go Gamecocks!
HEY SCOTT---
Did you happen to hear Colin Cowherd's BEST BET this weekend in college...
He's 4-0 so far this year... he gave it out this morning , but i didn't catch it.
GOOD LUCK ON YOUR PLAYS
:clap:
Did you happen to hear Colin Cowherd's BEST BET this weekend in college...
He's 4-0 so far this year... he gave it out this morning , but i didn't catch it.
GOOD LUCK ON YOUR PLAYS
:clap:
