Week 3 Plays...........

[THE KOD]

Pujo

I think he is on Alabama .....big.

Somehow I don't think he will be buying back any 3000 bets anytime too soon, for a desparate attempt at the middle win.
thats so funny, well you get the picture......

The way I see it is if your buying back bets because you can't take the big loss, then you are betting too much. Its simple math.

KOD

 

[THE KOD]

edit by jack

knock it off, scott

Jack

 

[Scott4USC]

Fresno St. :thumb:

This weekend Oregon will be 1 or 4 Pac 10 schools playing a ranked opponent. I think Fresno St. is a legit top 25 ranked team and IMO one of the better teams on the west coast! Oregon has USC in town next week, and no matter how much coach Belloti warns them against looking ahead, I guarantee you every Duck player has the Trojans either in their conscious or subconscious mind.

The question I have for the Ducks is do they have enough to beat both the Trojans and the Bulldogs? My guess is they do not. I feel they must choose between the two teams. Here is what I mean. Oregon's chances against USC are greatly increased if the O scheme and D scheme used surprise USC (particularly the O scheme, as SC has a ton of inexperience on D). So, if the Ducks show too much against the Bulldogs, the USC D and O will be better prepared for the game. Thus, Oregon's best chances against SC is to keep most of its O and D under wraps against the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs, however, have no such limitation. They can let it all hang out. USC, likewise, most likely does not have to show much on either O or D to beat the Razorbacks.
If the Ducks hold back scheme against the Bulldogs, my guess is the Ducks lose the game. However, if the Ducks show a lot against the Bulldogs, I think the Ducks lessen their chances against the Trojans.

The Bulldogs are very, very good. Oregon must choose - show as much as you have to attempt to beat the Bulldogs or hold back and hope you can squeak past the Bulldogs and then confuse the Trojans the following week. Pac 10 play is more important then OOC play, AND upsetting #1 ranked team does wonders for the Oregon program. Oregon?s goal is to win the Pac 10, not the BCS.

Oregon only rushed the ball for 87 yards last week in 38 attempts vs Div 1-AA Montana. NOT IMPRESSIVE! Oregon is installing the spread offense and they are having difficulty. Especially with the rushing game. To prove my point, Oregon has kicked 11 FG?s this season. Their red zone offense is struggling because of the new spread offense AND weak OL.

FSU HC Pat Hill (who I think is a great coach), admits that this is his best team ever! It certainly is one of the most experienced teams in the country. Returning 9 offense and 8 defense.

The key number in this game for FSU is 28pts as Fresno St. is 8-0 ATS past 3 seasons when they score 28 points, conversely, Oregon is 22-40 ATS past 8 years when they allow 28 points. In addition, Fresno St. is 16-4 ATS vs Pac 10 since 1992. 8-1 ATS last 9 against Pac 10.

The key matchup in this game is FSU OL vs Oregon DL. Everyone knows FSU is a smash mouth program. Oregon?s weakness on defense is their secondary while their strength is their DL lead by the #1 DT in the country Ngata. I think whoever wins this battle wins the game. But FSU has one slight advantage. They can throw the ball too! They have a talented and experienced QB Pinegar to go along with an experienced WR corps. Pinegar spreads the ball around and gets everyone involved. So if Oregon wins the battle in the trenches, why couldn?t FSU exploit the weak Oregon secondary? HC Hill has the horses to do whatever he wants against the Oregon D. Oregon DL will be without their starting DE Devan Long. He is their best pass rusher and this hurts them greatly! Oregon is also without prized freshman recruit RB Stewart but Oregon has 2 other talented backs. On the flip side, FSU will be without star DE Garrett McIntyre.

On defense, FSU returns 7 starters (excluding McIntyre) and 4 of their top 5 tacklers. 6 of their top 8 tacklers. (excluding McIntyre) Experience is not an issue and there is a lot of talent on FSU. BTW, Fresno St. always plays with an attitude against BCS opponents. FSU is 13-2 ATS vs teams from BCS conf. As a USC fan with FSU on the schedule, I am very worried about that game. I think they can ?compete? with any team in the country.

An added bonus........

*Fresno St. is 18-3 ATS as non con. Dogs
*Fresno St. is 18-11-1 ATS their last 30 games after a straight up win
*Oregon is 4-16 ATS as favs vs .500 > opponent
*Oregon is 1-10 ATS as home favorites vs. .500 > opponent
*Oregon is 1-13 ATS as favs vs opponent off a straight up win (FSU beat Weber St. last week)
*Oregon is 0-3 ATS since 1996 vs Fresno St.

TREND GOY #3 ON FRESNO ST. WOW!

Go Bulldogs!


FYI, all my plays are listed in post #1 of this thread. Good luck tom.

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 2 units Fresno St. +3 -120 (betcris)

Adding 4 units South Carolina +2 (pinny)

Adding 2 units Missouri -19.5 -115 (pinny)


*thinking about adding CAL. I have flipped flopped on this game back and forth. One day i lean CAL other day I lean Illinois. I might have to pull trigger soon!

Good luck!

FYI, all picks are listed in post #1 of this thread.

 

[volfan]

Got a feeling the Hogs make the Trojans work a little today, your take?

GL

 

[Scott4USC]

Got a feeling the Hogs make the Trojans work a little today, your take?

GL

They def. can IF they can establish a rushing game. USC is inexperienced and unproven at DT spot. Almost same situation with LB's. There really is no excuse for Arky NOT to have success rushing the ball. That can also keep the USC O off the field. The Arky D will not stop or slow down the USC offense. No D in the country will. USC will not be throwing their blitz schemes against Arky. Same with offense. Very vanilla, let the talent win. BIG BIG game for USC next week against Oregon and USC will not show anything against Arky unless they have too.

It is a very tough game to cap. USC offense can have a lot of success and score 44pts but then Arky just needs 2 TD's to cover the spread. Pete Carroll WILL play everybody. Arky might keep starters in to save face. The game is a sell out so USC will by hyped up! USC is not overlooking Arky and is pumped to play. Prob. more so because they have not played in 2 weeks.

GUN TO MY HEAD? Arky covers the spread with a backdoor cover where their 1st string O scores on USC's 2nd and 3rd string D.

USC also has a lot of players dinged up. Carroll has been practicing 1's vs 1's and his team is beat up. Something like 5 stud freshman all got banged up. Can't handle practice. But Carroll says practice is suppose to be harder than the games. Seems to work!

GL to your Volunteers against FL today!

 

[RexBudler]

I like your card today, gl to you Scott

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 2 units CAL -21 over Illinois

*With a gun to my head I actually side with Illinois but 2 services I respect are making CAL a BIG play. That is worth 2 units! I will be disappointed if Illinois covers because that is who I sided with when I originally capped it.

Here is what I came up and posted in another thread when capping this game and why I sided with Illinois.

I was looking at this game earlier in the week and I slightly lean to Illinois. The only thing stopping me from making a play is the Illinois defense. They are not very good. I also think Illinois only has 4 seniors on the team who play. Something like that. You need a solid D to compete on the road. CAL can very well score over 40pts against the Illinois defense. Can I count on Illinois to score over 20pts? Maybe.

Illinois is talented on offense and CAL is very inexperienced on defense. Good time for Illinois to catch CAL. Up to this point, I am not sold on 2 things about CAL. Their defense and QB.

Ayoob is raw but very talented. He looked impressive against Washington but we have no clue how consistent he is. BTW, Washington clearly is the worst team in the Pac 10 but Tedford did amazing job coaching to blow them out @UW with new QB. Ayoob should get the job done to get CAL the win, but I am not confident in him to get the cover. He easily can throw INT?s and you can?t really blame him if he does.

CAL is 1-4 ATS as non conf. double digit home favorites
CAL is 15-23 ATS the last 38 games as home favorites
Illinois is 2-9 ATS last 11 games away from home

FYI, all plays are listed in post #1 of this thread. Good luck everyone!

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 1 unit South Carolina +3.5 -130 over Alabama (lessjuice)

*Upset I put my 4 units at SC +2 and now you can get +2.5 few places. Bad call by me. :cursin:


FYI, all plays are listed in post #1 of this thread. Good luck everyone!

 

[arrow]

scott like your write ups but am playing opposite sides on alabama and oregon. Oregon speed should really hurt fresno in the cb area. Good luck on the rest though as agree on most. ARROW

 

[Scott4USC]

scott like your write ups but am playing opposite sides on alabama and oregon. Oregon speed should really hurt fresno in the cb area. Good luck on the rest though as agree on most. ARROW

I don't like butting heads :banghead: against you but I think today will be a monster day for me. West Virginia is going as planned. I think I might add to my Fresno St. play if it goes to +3.

Oregon has NFL talent especially on offense. Problem is they need time to gell. They will be a very dangerous team in 2h of season. FSU plays very physical and they are not a slow team. Oregon struggled badly in red zone against 1aa opponent last week. FSU has a tougher defense that really plays physical football. Especially against BCS teams. FSU WILL LAY IT ALL OUT, will Oregon?

Good luck to you but take my advice and buy back your Oregon and Alabama plays. I am sweeping the board today!

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 6 units Fresno St. +3.5 -120 over Oregon (betcris)

Total
13 UNITS FRESNO ST.

I am going all in! Unfortunately I am leaving for the USC game so I won't be able to watch this big bet. $$$$ keeps on going to Oregon and line keeps going up. Therefore I am pounding it because they are wrong. FSU will win this game.

Good luck everybody! I look to be having great day except for South Carolina which is my 2nd biggest bet. I was only going to add 5 or more units to FSU if SC won but I said what the hell. I'll throw the dice and see what happens. I really love Fresno St. in this spot. WVU winning earlier today along with Clemson looking solid among others (except SC), I am going to risk it big time! I def. will be in huge negative if I lose this play. Unless South Carolina comes back which they easily can!

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE! Prob. the last update from me unless my laptop gets connection at the tailgate!

 

[sport stud]

I like your Fres. St. play as well as it's dropping to 2.5 some places;
Agree that that Arkansas will make a run for its $ today. And yes, USC probably will overlook.

Enjoy your game at USC,
SS

 

[Bubba]

Too Funny

Too Funny

Thank you for your intelligent and well thought out posts.

"Who are you, Arnold Rothstein?"
Thats my new sig. No, seriosuly.Too funny.

 

[THE KOD]

Bubba

I dont get the arnold thing.

I bet Scott wishs he stayed home from the USC game so he could have got off most of those games at half time.

I really didnt think USC would do that to Arkansas but things happen.

fight on.

 

[Scott4USC]

Sat. Results
5-5
-1.2 units ($500 unit)
- $600


YTD Results
+ 2.85 units ($500 unit)
+ $1,425


South Carolina was a HORRIBLE pick. :mj16: Wow, did I handicap that game wrong. Props to Alabama anybody who took Bama. (Arrow ) I put fawking 7 units on that $hit pick. I would say South Carolina and Syracuse over WVU (both big plays) were my 2 worse capped games of the year. DEAD WRONG! :flush: Syracuse only hung with WVU because of TO's.

On flip side, I put 13 huge units on Fresno St. and I got fawked big time. FSU had 15 penalities called against them for 170 yards compared to Oregon's 6 for 60 yds. Fresno jumped out to a 17-0 lead, and all of a sudden a light clicked in these officials and they started throwing flags with no accountability on the Buuldogs. This crew that reffed this game should NEVER get another assignment ever for their complete blatant lack of
knowlege of the rules and outright personal vendetta against HC Pat Hill. I do not like like what I have seen so far in CFB with officials. Take my BYU bet over BC. The refs were ACC refs and BYU was called for multiple penaltys when driving into red zone of BC. ABSURD what I am seeing and I keep on coming on the short end of the stick. I put a fawking $6,500 on FSU, capped the $hit out of, I get FSU up 17-0 lead, and refs decide they want to even this game out. BULL$HIT! BTW, I tivoed the game and watched it because I didn't see it live yesterday.

FSU HC Pat hill in his pg press conference does /did ask an appropriate question concerning this travesty,"what is the use in even playing a game under these circumstances?" That cost me from winning another $5,000 on the game! :cursin:

Good news that brightened up my day is my USC future wager looks stronger than ever. No CFB team in the country has a D that can defend the USC O. However, USC D is not a shut down D especially with them losing their #2 DB with no depth behind him. However, I'll take USC in a shootout any time! The USC D can stop people, just not consistently. USC prob. has a #15 (maybe better maybe worse) best D in the country. #1 best O!


Just an FYI to anyone who cares, I prob. will have one of my biggest wagers of the year this week. Yesterday FSU was my biggest with 13 units but this week I prob. will have a min. 10unit play. I had this game pegged 2 weeks ago and hopefully I get the line I expect. Might not be the biggest "unit" wise but will be the strongest play of the year. I put 13 units on FSU because I capped it right and line was moving in my favor so I had to take advantage of it. Anybody who took Oregon was on the wrong side, unless you capped "Refs with benefits"

Look out for the lock next week. I don't lose many big bets! adlock:

 

[baby johnson]

nice job scott

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

Just an FYI to anyone who cares, I prob. will have one of my biggest wagers of the year this week. Yesterday FSU was my biggest with 13 units but this week I prob. will have a min. 10unit play. I had this game pegged 2 weeks ago and hopefully I get the line I expect. Might not be the biggest "unit" wise but will be the strongest play of the year. I put 13 units on FSU because I capped it right and line was moving in my favor so I had to take advantage of it. Anybody who took Oregon was on the wrong side.

I hear ya SCOTT we got robbed of that game :cursin:

 

[oldschoolcapper]

or look at the flip side, if fresno didn't score a TD with less than 2 minuntes left, you don't even get a push or win (depending on what line you got)

gl next week

osc

 

[Scott4USC]

My argument is FSU was fawked by the refs yet they only lost by 3pts. FSU partly has themselves to blame because they took the ball twice to the Oregon 10 yard line and scored 2 FG's. WTF is up with that? PUNCH IT IN!

2 plays FSU wish they could have back. 3rd and 9 Oregon throws 46 yard TD pass and 4th and 1 Oregon 20 yard TD run. That is 14pts! OUCH!

Take away the refs, FSU wins this game by double digits EASY! FSU was and is the better team. Few years ago FSU was fawked by the refs @ Oregon. The ball spotter literally MOVED the ball to advantage of Oregon. Unfreakingbelievable. This $hit should not happen, especially when I have $7,500 on it. Just call a fair game.

These refs better not be at the USC/Oregon game next week. Or USC will lose just like FSU. You can't overcome that huge of a disparity in penalty yards. IT IS NOT RIGHT! I feel real bad for HC Pat Hill. He had his team ready like I expected. Great coach and I fear USC vs FSU in Nov.

FSU was moving the ball all day on Oregon D just like Oregon against FSU D. The difference was refs. But I guess I was fortunate that FSU didn't turn the ball over or get stopped last possession. Or kick FG. I prob would have been sweating bullets if i watched it live. :mj02: