YTD NFL: 10-11, -1.9 units
Ugh, not a pretty record. Well, it's time to heat up! Here's what I've taken this week:
Minnesota -6: Explained this in an earlier thread. Carolina is just plain bad, but they are 2-0 because they have played two bottom of the barrel teams (Balt & Det). Have not faced even a reasonably decent passing game yet (perhaps the 2 worst passing teams in the league?) and should be shocked back to reality when they encounter this one. Carolina is now overconfident, hard to imagine as that is. Minny is off to an 0-2 start and two painful, close losses. They are also being reminded of last year's home defeat to these same Panthers. I'm not big on revenge...I'm also not one to lay more than a FG too often... but all in all it adds up to a solid home side victory I think.
Kansas City +10 -115: Found a 9? -105 at MPC and bought the extra half point. Another case of overconfidence I think. Pats coming off 2 big wins...game has "overlook" written all over it. KC off a loss and nothing is expected of them. On paper this should be a Pats rout, but the game's not played on paper.
Expect the Chiefs to hang around just long enough to cover.
Houston +12: That is one loud stadium these guys play in. Should negate Indy's ability to call audibles, which is a fairly large part of their offence. I think we're going to see a very different Texans team at home vs on the road this year. 12 pts is a heck of a lot and I don't see a lot of reason why Indy will run the score up on them....if they can run the score up on them. Houston looks to atone for last week's flat effort, in front of fans that have very high hopes and are starving for excitement.
Clev/Tenn Under 38: Both teams have injury problems on the offensive side of the ball. Browns first trip away from home, and their first real test. I think they may experience some difficulty here. Not my strongest pick of the week, but I like it to stay close and low-scoring.
Buffalo +9: Well I guess I am with the majority of the players here and that's definitely a concern. I put this bet in early before I saw the consensus. Not that that's a bad thing....9 pts is a lot. Still not convinced that Denver's defence is all THAT...and if it's anything less than THAT, covering this large number is going to be difficult for them. It's also an overlook situation for the Broncos. Bills filled with confidence in their passing game now and could surprise the Broncs early.
Washington +9: Looking for a bounceback here after the Skins embarassment on national TV. I don't think he allows them to put up two clunkers in a row. Tough task given that SF is off a loss (I'm not keen betting against that), but again, 9 pts is a lot.
I've got other plays that I am just waiting for better numbers on, but I'm not gonna announce them and then not bet them like I did last week and watch all the non-bets win. Will update later.
Good luck everyone.
Ugh, not a pretty record. Well, it's time to heat up! Here's what I've taken this week:
Minnesota -6: Explained this in an earlier thread. Carolina is just plain bad, but they are 2-0 because they have played two bottom of the barrel teams (Balt & Det). Have not faced even a reasonably decent passing game yet (perhaps the 2 worst passing teams in the league?) and should be shocked back to reality when they encounter this one. Carolina is now overconfident, hard to imagine as that is. Minny is off to an 0-2 start and two painful, close losses. They are also being reminded of last year's home defeat to these same Panthers. I'm not big on revenge...I'm also not one to lay more than a FG too often... but all in all it adds up to a solid home side victory I think.
Kansas City +10 -115: Found a 9? -105 at MPC and bought the extra half point. Another case of overconfidence I think. Pats coming off 2 big wins...game has "overlook" written all over it. KC off a loss and nothing is expected of them. On paper this should be a Pats rout, but the game's not played on paper.
Expect the Chiefs to hang around just long enough to cover.Houston +12: That is one loud stadium these guys play in. Should negate Indy's ability to call audibles, which is a fairly large part of their offence. I think we're going to see a very different Texans team at home vs on the road this year. 12 pts is a heck of a lot and I don't see a lot of reason why Indy will run the score up on them....if they can run the score up on them. Houston looks to atone for last week's flat effort, in front of fans that have very high hopes and are starving for excitement.
Clev/Tenn Under 38: Both teams have injury problems on the offensive side of the ball. Browns first trip away from home, and their first real test. I think they may experience some difficulty here. Not my strongest pick of the week, but I like it to stay close and low-scoring.
Buffalo +9: Well I guess I am with the majority of the players here and that's definitely a concern. I put this bet in early before I saw the consensus. Not that that's a bad thing....9 pts is a lot. Still not convinced that Denver's defence is all THAT...and if it's anything less than THAT, covering this large number is going to be difficult for them. It's also an overlook situation for the Broncos. Bills filled with confidence in their passing game now and could surprise the Broncs early.
Washington +9: Looking for a bounceback here after the Skins embarassment on national TV. I don't think he allows them to put up two clunkers in a row. Tough task given that SF is off a loss (I'm not keen betting against that), but again, 9 pts is a lot.
I've got other plays that I am just waiting for better numbers on, but I'm not gonna announce them and then not bet them like I did last week and watch all the non-bets win.
Will update later.Good luck everyone.
