YTD: 8-3
Did not play much last weekend, but did go 3-1 for a second winning week in a row. So, lets see if I cant get a third one off on the right foot with tonight's game. How will I do that? Glad you asked. I will do so, it seems, by simply following the board:
UNC +6, -109.
What if I told you one of these teams was 5-6 SU in their last 11 games. I'd bet lunch most would guess UNC. Actually, that's Rutgers record in their last 11. Now, to be fair, UNC is just 4-7 in their last 11, but trust me there's a logic in pointing out how poor both teams records are in their last season's worth of games. That logic is, these teams aren't that much far apart, if at all, talent wise. However, at this present time, I feel the Heels are on the uptick while the Knights are on the downswing. I'll risk a wager and take six points that my (as well it seems much of this MJ forum here) analysis of these two teams from the preseason is spot on. UNC will be in a bowl game, while Rutgers might see their three-year bowl run snapped. This will be a major swing game towards that end. I think its 50/50 that the Heels will break that long losing streak outside the state of NC tonight, but I've never been a savvy ML bettor, so I might as well stick to what I do best and just take the points. Here's a couple other thoughts:
These teams kicked the 2006 season off in Chapel Hill and RU got a tough 21-16 win. UNC was way down that year, while Rutgers had a storybook sort of season. The teams are much closer in talent now than they were then. RU needed everything it had to get the win two years ago, and while they're at home tonight, I really dont think the game will be decided by more than their 2006 contest.
Rutgers is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite with three ending in outright losses to Cincy and Maryland last year and Fresno last week. The other game was a win, no cover against Pitt last season. UNC does not have great numbers as a road dog, but thy were 3-2 ATS last year on the road as a dog against eventual bowl teams. They wont shrink from this challenge at all, not with Butch Davis prodding them.
UNC can run, Rutgers cant stop the run. Yes, there's only a small sample size from this year to look at, but the Knights were steamrolled by Fresno. More notably--and this has been said by me and others many times so far this season--Rutgers is struggling for an identity as a football team and as an offense without Ray Rice. They're still rebuilding their OL and without the inimitable Rice, they dont look like they can run the ball like they have in the past. More of the offense is in Teel's hands and while he can get hot with his good WRs Underwood and Briitt, he is prone to long spells of innaccuracy and killer turnovers.
Special teams. UNC has an electric return game. Rutgers is not too shabby there either, but what kills them in this department is their kicker. He was brutal in the game against Fresno. Looks like he has that sideways kick down pat.
This will be a hard fought game. Rutgers does not want to go 0-2, but I wonder if this club has the horses of the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, UNC has loads of talent, if still a little green. I dont know if they're ready to win a game like this, but they've more than proven to me that, worst case, they can stay in a game like this until the very end.
Good luck! :weed:
Did not play much last weekend, but did go 3-1 for a second winning week in a row. So, lets see if I cant get a third one off on the right foot with tonight's game. How will I do that? Glad you asked. I will do so, it seems, by simply following the board:
UNC +6, -109.
What if I told you one of these teams was 5-6 SU in their last 11 games. I'd bet lunch most would guess UNC. Actually, that's Rutgers record in their last 11. Now, to be fair, UNC is just 4-7 in their last 11, but trust me there's a logic in pointing out how poor both teams records are in their last season's worth of games. That logic is, these teams aren't that much far apart, if at all, talent wise. However, at this present time, I feel the Heels are on the uptick while the Knights are on the downswing. I'll risk a wager and take six points that my (as well it seems much of this MJ forum here) analysis of these two teams from the preseason is spot on. UNC will be in a bowl game, while Rutgers might see their three-year bowl run snapped. This will be a major swing game towards that end. I think its 50/50 that the Heels will break that long losing streak outside the state of NC tonight, but I've never been a savvy ML bettor, so I might as well stick to what I do best and just take the points. Here's a couple other thoughts:
These teams kicked the 2006 season off in Chapel Hill and RU got a tough 21-16 win. UNC was way down that year, while Rutgers had a storybook sort of season. The teams are much closer in talent now than they were then. RU needed everything it had to get the win two years ago, and while they're at home tonight, I really dont think the game will be decided by more than their 2006 contest.
Rutgers is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite with three ending in outright losses to Cincy and Maryland last year and Fresno last week. The other game was a win, no cover against Pitt last season. UNC does not have great numbers as a road dog, but thy were 3-2 ATS last year on the road as a dog against eventual bowl teams. They wont shrink from this challenge at all, not with Butch Davis prodding them.
UNC can run, Rutgers cant stop the run. Yes, there's only a small sample size from this year to look at, but the Knights were steamrolled by Fresno. More notably--and this has been said by me and others many times so far this season--Rutgers is struggling for an identity as a football team and as an offense without Ray Rice. They're still rebuilding their OL and without the inimitable Rice, they dont look like they can run the ball like they have in the past. More of the offense is in Teel's hands and while he can get hot with his good WRs Underwood and Briitt, he is prone to long spells of innaccuracy and killer turnovers.
Special teams. UNC has an electric return game. Rutgers is not too shabby there either, but what kills them in this department is their kicker. He was brutal in the game against Fresno. Looks like he has that sideways kick down pat.
This will be a hard fought game. Rutgers does not want to go 0-2, but I wonder if this club has the horses of the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, UNC has loads of talent, if still a little green. I dont know if they're ready to win a game like this, but they've more than proven to me that, worst case, they can stay in a game like this until the very end.
Good luck! :weed:
