Week 3.

[MrChristo]

10-10 (-1.92)

Philli -4 (3 units)

Crazy line. There's already a couple of good posts as to why this line is so far off, so no real explaination needed!
Line based on Det being 2-0. They have been outgained significantly in both games and relied on a blocked FG and a 99 yards kick-off return for nearly 1/3 of their points!!
Det maybe able to stay with them in the first half, but their D will get tired and expect more than one deep ball to be caught by Philli.
Had expected this line to be -7...probably will be by game time.
Hard to see anything but a big Eagles win.

 

[MrChristo]

This week is teaser heaven!...Gotta go with a big one....

Atlanta -3
Minni -2
Tenn/Jax under 42.5
San Fran +18
Oak/TB under 41.5
Wash/Dal under 42................pays 6.00 (+500)

I guess SL pk, and Tenn +1 are also very 'teasable', but I think they just might cover anyway

 

[GM]

I don't disagree with you on the Philly call...but for the sake of argument, I'll try to play devil's advocate. (Just cause I'm bored, and I want to make sure I've looked at both sides of the coin).

Why Detroit +4 is a good play:

1) Short week for the Eagles, off a MNF game,
2) First road game of the season for Philly after 2 fairly easy home wins,
3) Very overlookable game for Philly. Detroit may be 2-0, but everyone knows they have beaten creampuffs to get there, and the Eagles still won't take the Lions seriously,
4) Lions heading into a bye; this game is all they have on their minds,
5) Home dogs getting more than 3 points are gold in the NFL.

So I'd say there are some reasons to consider the Lions. I still don't think I've convinced myself, but some of those reasons are fairly valid. Whether they offset the vast difference in talent levels though...not sure. As I see it it really comes down to how much Philly wants it, and how seriously they take the game.

Keep in mind if this game was in Philly, and you allow 3 pts for home advantage, that would make the line Philly -10...which doesn't look nearly as appealing.

 

[MrChristo]

Keep in mind if this game was in Philly, and you allow 3 pts for home advantage, that would make the line Philly -10...which doesn't look nearly as appealing.

Yeah it does! :142lmao:

But seriously!...Some very valid points there GM, but like I said, I was sure this game would be -7, and I was quite prepared to take -6 or less. Nearly spat out my coffee when I saw the Eagles -3.5!

Hoenstly don't think that the short week matters, and although it's their first road trip, Philli know that to be serious contenders they must beat these lesser sides on the road.
Det going into a BYE week is a slight concern (I know a team going into a bye is a system play of yours), but as you say, the difference in talent levels is huge.

Detroit can't run the ball (which seems to be Philli's weakness), and Philli's secondary looks as good as ever. Just can't see Detroit putting any kind of a score on the board.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit's D looks very thin in the secondary (esp. later in games when they start to wear down).

It may well be close for a while, but I fully expect Philli to have 1-2 big plays deep for TD's. (That hopefully won't be reviewed in this game either! )

 

[LonghornMM]

What are your non-teaser point spread and totals picks this week?

 

[Marra]

About the Phily/Det game...

You got to think Philly is going to go 12-4, possibly 13-3. The lions are no better than an 8-8 POSSIBLY 9-7 team.

That being said, if they are going to lose 7 games, doesn't it make sense that one of the losses will be against the better team?

If the final score is 24-21 Philly, then the bookmakers just beat me. I'll take that chance, though. :clap:

 

[MrChristo]

What are your non-teaser point spread and totals picks this week?

Sorry Longhorn, but nothing really stands out to me this week.
As I said before, with the high spreads and extreme totals, it's definately a great week for teasers, imo.

Even the trends I use have a lot of conflicts....
eg. Baltimore are in a 5-1 situation, but Cinci in a 6-1 spot themselves.
Rams 5-1-1 spot, but also a 1-8 situation.
Miami in a 4-11-2 spot, but with an average loss of only 2.5 points, it figures to be close either way. Also don't want to be taking a rookie QB who's not used to taking snaps under centre against what still is a fairly solid Miami D.

The one trend that does figure this week is:

League: 3-8 (2-9 this no. Av. loss 15.9!) away 3+ dog off 3- SU win as home 3- dog. [Jax]
0-4 (Av. loss 24.2!!) when total <37...Av. team score 6.8 ppg!!
So Jax figure to not score much this week...depending on how many you think Tenn was score either the Titans -5.5 or the under is the play.
(Or Jax team total under 15 is a good play).

One VERY strong trend that suggests Minni/Chic OVER is the play, but I think it's a bit hard to take.

So... :142lmao: ..after all that, basically I'll only be playing Philli and the teaser I reckon.

Good Luck to everyone this week.

 

[ajoytoy]

Detroit has a good chance to win, but i dont feel that the Eagles will "overlook" them....they know they are 2-0...regardless of how they go tthose wins

gl on the plays buddy and go Eagles

 

[MrChristo]

Also went with Miami/Pits under 33.

More of a weather thing....Hopefully not too many int's being returned for TD's! :cursin:

 

[MrChristo]

Adding a couple of props:

D. Davis over 90.5 rushing yards (1.87)
Jacksonville team total under 15 (1.87)

 

[MrChristo]

Washington -1

League: 8-3 (av. win 7.1) home 3- favs off 7+ ats loss as away 3- favs. [Wash]

League: 3-10 (Av. loss 11.5) away 3- dog off 3- ats win as home 7- favs. [Dallas]

Just going with the %'s. Historically a strong spot for the home team. Washington a good ground game and strong defense. Can't see any reason why they won't get the win here.