Lions-Redskins
The Lions are coming off a disappointing game against the Cardinals, where they held a four point lead at halftime. Over the last three seasons, teams that held a four or more point lead on the road and lost are 14-4 ATS (77.8%) if their next game is also on the road. With minutes left to play, the Lions blew the game on a penalty, which resulted in Arizona?s only third down conversion of the game in ten tries, and ultimately cost the Lions the game. So far this season, the Lions are the best team at stopping their opponent?s third down attempts, holding opponents to a 14.29% completion rate. On the other side, the Redskins have given up a completion rate of 44% to their opponents. Teams playing on the road that complete more third down conversions than their opponent cover the spread 67.7% of the time over the last five seasons, and Detroit should be up to this challenge tomorrow. In addition to good defensive stands on third down conversions, the Lions held the Cardinals to 25% red zone efficiency, and one goal to go failure. Teams coming off a road game where their previous opponent had three or more red zone failures and at least one goal to go failure are 18-1 ATS since the 2006 season when they did not lose their last game by more than two touchdowns, they have a win percentage of 50 or more, and they are playing in a conference game. In other words, they are a decent team and were able to play very well defensively in the red zone.
The line in this game opened at Redskins -3 and is now basically a pick-em, so considering lines close to these numbers, there are a lot of trends that lean towards the road team in this situation. Teams with a 50% win percentage playing on the road in a game where the line is -3 to +3 are 27-5-1 ATS (84.4%) when coming off a loss since the 2004 season. Teams coming off a road loss that are playing on the road in a game where the line is -3 to +3 are 68-33-4 ATS (67.3%) since the 2004 season. Over the last two seasons: 18-5-1 ATS (78.3%). Teams playing at home in September in a game where the line is -3 to +3 are 53-91-8 (36.8%) ATS when they are coming off a road loss.
Even if we grant them some grace because they have played two offensively loaded teams in the first two weeks, the Redskins have still allowed an average of 511.5 yards so far this season, broken down into 310.5 in the passing game and 201 on the ground. Their rushing yards allowed is almost double what any other team has averaged in the first two weeks, and one of these games was against a Packers team that historically has not been a great rushing team (20th in the league in 2012, 27th in the league in 2011). The Lions have not exactly been stellar with their rushing game either, but in their last two meetings against the Redskins they have rushed for 128 yards on average. Over the last five seasons, road dogs that are able to rush for more than 100 yards cover the spread 66.3% of the time (in a sample of over 400 games). If the Packers were able to gain 139 yards on the Redskins last week, the Lions should be able to get 100, as they average more rushing attempts per game than Green Bay. Reggie Bush returned to practice Friday, but even if he can?t go, the Lions have a proven capable back in Joique Bell. But even if the Lions don?t manage to gain 100 on the ground, they love to throw the ball. The Redskins secondary has struggled, giving up a league worst 10.2 yards on average per opponents passing attempt so far this season, and Stafford has had two quality starts, averaging 315 yards per game and throwing only one interception in 79 attempts, with a completion percentage of 65.8% (good for seventh in the league). The Redskins are giving up a completion percentage of 73.13% on the season so far and have no interceptions. Stafford should be able to have a completion percentage of at least 60, and if he manages to do that and throw one or no interceptions, road teams cover at a rate of 67.6%.
On offense, the Redskins have only been able to score prolifically during garbage time in their first two games, and they have struggled to start, being outscored 50-7 so far this season in the first half. When you add in the questionable effectiveness of Griffin right now, the Lions look like a good bet. Griffin led all QBs in rushing last year with 833 yards, but has only 25 so far this season. Garcon: ?Robert obviously can?t run as fast as he did last year because of his knee brace and his knee. But it?s the same offense, to be honest with you. It?s nothing different. It hasn?t changed at all.? Defenses have adjusted to Griffin?s immobility, while the Redskin?s offense has not made good adjustments to this point.
I took this line right when it came out, but I wouldn?t be afraid to bet it now even with the line movement, since dogs of three or less that cover win SU 92% of the time since the 2000 season.
Lions +2.5 -110
