Week 3

[DZ]

Season record: 11-10 -0.6x

Open futures:
BAL to win AFC North Division +350 4x
BAL to win AFC Championship 14-1 1x

Week 2 recap...
All favs won outright and 6 of 8 covered the early games on Sunday Week 2.
Dogs cover in the afternoon except the pathetic Jets.
Week 2 seemed a bit predictable. I made a mistake not posting the rest of my teaser plays. Teased a lot of of the morning favs down and a few of the late dogs up. I don't expect it to be so easy in Week 3.
I could see some odd stuff happening in week 3 and a big Sunday for the books.

Week 3 thoughts...
0-2 teams looking to play on: SF, CIN, NYG, CHI & NO.
Jets are a consideration playing their home opener, with Miami in the middle of a crazy travel schedule, but I don't trust them for the full game, so maybe a 1st half play is in order there.
0-2 teams I want no part of: IND, CLE (they play each other lol) & LAC
Love the talent on this Chargers team, but Lynn doesn't look ready to be a head coach so can't trust 'em.
I want to avoid playing to many sides in the NFL this year... they will slowly drain your bankroll.
Focusing more on 1st half/2nd half totals, TTs and props... better edges can be found in these markets.


Locked in one already... maybe found a rouge number...

CHI +8 3x



gl

 

[DZ]

Love this one...

Love this one...

Bills looking like they might be without their starting left tackle and even if he goes, he'll be playing on two bad feet. Their backup at that spot is a second round rookie... Von Miller & Derek Wolfe are licking their chops... welcome to the NFL kid.
Bills logged 21 at home against the Jets week 1... just 3 points in week 2 :facepalm: How do we think the offense will fare vs Denver's D? :0corn


BUF TT un19 (-120) 4x

 

[DZ]

Other TTs I'm looking at... all unders...

CLE un21
PIT un27.5
CHI un19.5
SEA un21
TEN un24
GB un28

 

[DZ]

TTs added...

TTs added...

CAR un27 -125 2.4x
ATL ov27 -120 2.5x

 

[BASON]

Good Luck this week DZ.

I like the Saints. Carolina just looks really bad to me on offense and don't think they should be laying 6 to anyone right now.

 

[DZ]

Good Luck this week DZ.

I like the Saints. Carolina just looks really bad to me on offense and don't think they should be laying 6 to anyone right now.

I completely agree and I love the under on that one, but it's already moved below 48, which is where I wanted to get it. Carolina team total under should be good in that one. Their offense is pitiful and Cam's shoulder still isn't right, plus loss of Olsen is much bigger than it's being made out to be. We should see best from the 0-2 Saints defense as well and I didn't think they played as poorly as the box score showed against an angry and rested Pats team last week...lots of 3rd down conversions in that one. So, the Saints are a side I'm considering playing the ML on this weekend. I think a lot of public ML parlays and teasers with favorites will get busted up early this weekend, unlike last weekend when they all won outright early. Think NYG and CHI are also worth a look as ML dogs this Sunday.

 

[DZ]

PIT/CHI un24 2H 2x

 

[DZ]

MNF

MNF

DAL TT un14 1H (-125) 2x


Props:

TOTAL o60?-125 (JJ NELSON RCVING YDS) 2x
TOTAL o45?-130 (J BROWN RCVING YDS) 2x
TOTAL u3?-125 (E ELLIOTT RECEPTIONS) 2x
TOTAL u96?EV (E ELLIOTT RUSH YDS) 1x
TOTAL u5-140 (TOTAL SACKS) 2x

 

[DZ]

I will fully admit that the props on Sacks under and Nelson over yards (I knew about the iffy injury status before, I just forced it) were horrible calls on my part, but the Jaron Brown prop was just a horrible beat. It felt like time after time he was getting pushed out of bounds with a toe or half a heel on the line after making great catches. Just one of those goes stays in-bounds and he goes over the 45 receiving yards. If John Brown continues to miss any time, Jaron Brown will continue to be a good over play in yards and receptions against the 9ers and the Eagles in the next few weeks. Now, I'm still left asking myself, how did I not take the over in any of the Fitzgerald props? Well, there were reasons, but none of them seem any good now.