Week 4 Card (Sept 17th-20th)

[Irish]

I said this two weeks ago after watching them play........

Iowa (+1) over Pitt
A loss to Boeling Green and a dog fight with Buffalo. I guess the panthers needed a little down time to get the ship righted, that would be the case if they had a coaching staff worth a damn to fix the problems at hand. The best thing about this play is the panthers bad offense was probably overcoached in the off week and now they are rusty and completely unsure. Lets see, what could Pitts offensive game plan be? I think it might be Run McCoy as much as possible and hope they run over the defensive front of Iowa. Since Iowa has allowed 8 points against them in three games. I am not saying the hawkeye defense is top in the nation but they are better than Bowling Green and Buffalo and that spells trouble for Pitts offense. Iowa has recorded at least one takeaway in 23 of its last 25 games, dating back to the 2006 season. So I am not worried about the Hawkeye defense giving Pitt a ton of points, but I have to make sure Christensen plays well. I think the benching in this game might have been enough to get his head on right. But he is up and Down at best and Stanzi did not really impress with his time in the game. Although the Iowa QB situation is an issue, I still like the hawkeyes to win this game. Watching Pitt in the first quarter against Bowling Green they looked like a team that might be on the up and up, but instead since that point they went down. Wanny looks like he would like to call a run on EVERY play and use the 3 yard pass just to get his QB some arm work so it doesn't fall asleep. It is ugly football with some talented players. Iowa should have about 9 players in the box, due to Pitts run heavy TE, FB formations. They should crash the line and if they takle they should limit McCoy and fustrate the offense into a stall. Then they should be able to make enough plays to win this game. It will be an ugly game but Iowa has at least shown the ability to move the ball on multiple drives. Pitt has shown that scoring drives are few and far between. I will take this on the ML as well. This will be the last season for the Wanny era in Pitt unless he fires the entire coaching staff as a sacrafic. Either way the panthers know the system is flawed and why should players buy into what the coach is saying when their is no light at the end of the tunnel.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Bama (-10) over Ark
Looking at this game you have to recall the overtime game last season. The difference this season is no McFadden or Jones to carry the poor Ark offense. This is a bad team that was raided of its talent and then the coach ran from town. Now they are left to wonder how they can rebuild and reload in the SEC without the ability to get big time players. Patrino needs a wide open offense with a talented QB and speed at WR, the razorbacks do not have that and will struggle to find offense under his guidence. The best thing about Bobby P is he has proven one thing, cut bait when you have no fish. He blew out of town during a halftime in Louisville and ran from Atlanta. He does not find a way to win but rather he has winners or he loses. Alabama has allowed only one offensive touchdown in the first three games. They lead the Football Bowl Subdivision in rushing defense, holding opponents to 42.7 yards per game. They're giving up only 1.9 yards per carry, and haven't allowed a run longer than 13 yards. This means they will not give the razorbacks much room to move on offense and points will not come easy like they will for Bama. Bama has started to show the Saban recruits are paying off and they have an offense that is something to be proud of this season. My biggest concern is that the tide have georgia on the table but they still have enough in this game to roll over the backs. Ark has no answer for Coffee or Ingram, plus with that over whelming running advantage the Tide have an edge on O-line at at WR. The Tide have the talent where the razorbacks lack. One huge advantage is the coaching staff is not good at coaching defense or game planning defense so the Tide should be able to cash in drives for points. With Ark barely winning against lower level teams and having a week off because a game being moved I think a bad team only has time to get even more rusty. Bama should have one thing on their mind, beating Dick (hah) he is a bad QB that cannot beat them throwing so if they blitz him all day he will be in trouble. Bamas defense should blitz every down because Ark cannot beat one on one coverage and it might get ugly if Bama does not think about Georgia and plans for Arkansas. If they need help to focus the game from last season was on ESPN classic recently and Saban should have the narrow win fresh in his mind.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Kramer]

Irish they ran Nutt out of town and they will pay
the price in a BIG way, Hogs will be 3-5 when
they face Tulsa, Tulsa will be favored. Tulsa will
whip their ass. Mark it on your calendar. :SIB

 

[AR182]

irish...


good luck...

 

[Kramer]

Irish they ran Nutt out of town and they will pay
the price in a BIG way, Hogs will be 3-5 when
they face Tulsa, Tulsa will be favored. Tulsa will
whip their ass. Mark it on your calendar. :SIB

actually they will be 3-4, the Texas game was ppd.


Tulsa will beat Arkansas.

 

[thebsmanofkent]

actually they will be 3-4, the Texas game was ppd.


Tulsa will beat Arkansas.

GL Irish, I believe Iowa +1' wins this one
:SIB

 

[Kramer]

Bama (-10) over Ark
Looking at this game you have to recall the overtime game last season. The difference this season is no McFadden or Jones to carry the poor Ark offense. This is a bad team that was raided of its talent and then the coach ran from town. Now they are left to wonder how they can rebuild and reload in the SEC without the ability to get big time players. Patrino needs a wide open offense with a talented QB and speed at WR, the razorbacks do not have that and will struggle to find offense under his guidence. The best thing about Bobby P is he has proven one thing, cut bait when you have no fish. He blew out of town during a halftime in Louisville and ran from Atlanta. He does not find a way to win but rather he has winners or he loses. Alabama has allowed only one offensive touchdown in the first three games. They lead the Football Bowl Subdivision in rushing defense, holding opponents to 42.7 yards per game. They're giving up only 1.9 yards per carry, and haven't allowed a run longer than 13 yards. This means they will not give the razorbacks much room to move on offense and points will not come easy like they will for Bama. Bama has started to show the Saban recruits are paying off and they have an offense that is something to be proud of this season. My biggest concern is that the tide have georgia on the table but they still have enough in this game to roll over the backs. Ark has no answer for Coffee or Ingram, plus with that over whelming running advantage the Tide have an edge on O-line at at WR. The Tide have the talent where the razorbacks lack. One huge advantage is the coaching staff is not good at coaching defense or game planning defense so the Tide should be able to cash in drives for points. With Ark barely winning against lower level teams and having a week off because a game being moved I think a bad team only has time to get even more rusty. Bama should have one thing on their mind, beating Dick (hah) he is a bad QB that cannot beat them throwing so if they blitz him all day he will be in trouble. Bamas defense should blitz every down because Ark cannot beat one on one coverage and it might get ugly if Bama does not think about Georgia and plans for Arkansas. If they need help to focus the game from last season was on ESPN classic recently and Saban should have the narrow win fresh in his mind.

Cheers
Irish

I guess I diverted away from this pick,

what I was trying to say was not only do I agree
with your assessment of this game, Arky is in deep
caca. Anyway Irish, Kick the man in the ass TW


:toast:

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck Irish

 

[Woodson]

With you on Iowa.

As always thanks for the writeups, think this could be Alabama SEC conversation piece... might get out of hand late....

Arkansas is not the team of last year!


:toast:

 

[CornHunka]

BIG FAN of your write ups each week Irish, thanks for the insight and keep up the hard work. :toast:

I like the Tide also, but note Bama is on the road next week @ Georgia. Might be a look ahead game.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this week buddy

 

[rubiconed]

Thanks !!!

Thanks !!!

Thanks for the write ups, and GL this week !!! :toast:

 

[Irish]

K State (-4) over L'Ville
I cannot get the L'Ville/Kent game out of my head when looking at tonights match up. I guess I am lead to believe because L'Ville showed up against Tenn Tech that they are a better team now. Well I do not, I think they played a garbage team and tonight against a team with a pulse they will again fall apart. K State has a good QB in Freeman and he should have no problem against this defense. Not only will he be able to throw against them all night but scrambling he will not have anything to stop him. Plus KSt has a good O-line and running game. The KSt offense will be able to run and pass tonight. They have the talent and ability moving in the right direction compared to what I saw of L'Ville agianst Kentucky. The offense looked bad and if you every wonder what tunnel vision is, tune in to Cantwell. Wow talk about staring receivers down, it starts from presnap to throw with that guy. The KSt defense should have every ability to pick him off. Plus he throws a poor ball when you need touch, every throw is a rare back and fire as hard as he can. That leads to a lot of drops and stalled drives. The Cards will not have the ability to man handle this team and even though they showed some improvement they are not convincing me. I wonder about KSt because they haven't played anyone but they beat up on these teams and they should out match L'Ville. I look at the cards and see a smaller o-line, running game is not solid, QB has poor touch and read react and the defense has not been good in years. K State has the better defense, QB, weapons and should just be the better team on the pitch tonight. Freeman compleetes 75% of his passes and has 4 rusihing TDs. I expect to see him named the player of tonights game and remember Mel Kiper said he was the best pro prospect. I am not a big K St fan, but the purple should be on top of the Cards all night.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

KSt/L'Ville UNDER 56
This line seems very high considering both teams have beat up on doormate and L'Ville didn't muster an offensive point against defensive jaggurnaut Kentucky.

Cheers
Irish

 

[RAYMOND]

BEST OF LUCK THIS WEEK

 

[Irish]

Oregon (-12) over Boise
The ducks have an offense that is top notch. Yes they lost the starting QB but they have playing time depth at QB and they have just the same amount of talent backing up Roper as when he is in there. The Ducks spoted Purdue 20 before they turned it on and won that game by 6. What I really like about this is how well the Ducks play at home and Boise starting a freshman at QB. The crowb might be a big factor in the ability of the freshman to keep pace with an oregon team that finds another gear at home. LeGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson will lead the way behind a very good offensive line. Boise has always showed that smaller and quicker can bang with the beef. Boise State has the nation's 28th-ranked defense, allowing 257.0 yards per game. The pass defense 148.0 ypg is tied for 16th. Oregon line is so well coached and has enough speed to get outside and make big holes. Boise looked good in week one, put up 582 yards of offense in beating Idaho State 49-7 in their opener, then forced three Bowling Green turnovers last Saturday in a 20-7 win. I think even though Bowling Green has played good football they are not as talented as Oregon at home. Get to Ian Johnson and Boise will struggle. The Boise true freshman has throw 76% but only has 2 TD passes. This is a running team and the ducks have to play the run and get all the LB's in the box. Force the freshman to beat them and he will not be able to keep up in this track meet.

LSU (-2) over Auburn
IMO Auburn is an overrated #10 in the country but they are at home and they have talent. The home team has won each of the last eight matchups. That being said losing Lester will take a bit of steam out of the tigers running attack. LSU has rolled up 482 yards on the ground this season. Scott needs to take his 11 yards per carry into Auburn and keep drives alive. Thats going to be a test considering Auburn, though, has held its three opponents to 53.0 rushing yards per game. BUT Take long rushing drives into the endzone to keep Auburn without steam. This team won 3-2 last week and I am not sold on the offense being able to score on this defense. LSU squad that's allowing 8.0 points, 48.0 rushing yards and 219.0 total yards per game. Chris Todd will not have enough time to make plays and the LSU defense will hold the run off. This will be a tough game but I like LSU to score enough to make it too hard for Auburn to stay in it.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Well I guess KSt left tackling back home. Here is a key for the safety watch the QBs eyes, I mean goodness. WOW K States defense looks outright poor. Mr. Anderson is having a huge night. You would think a pitch to the outside would not net 140 plus yards but who am I to think a defensive minded coach would have CB's and safeties getting involved in stopping the run with a tackle in space.

TOUGH NIGHT!

Fla (-7.5) over Tenn
OK so Tenn got beat by UCLA that was shut out vs BYU. Tenn has never won the big game. They have a coach that is outright horrible. They have one weapon on offense and that is foster but they have zero help at WR and the QB looked average at best. Harvin is back and should be close to 100% and the Tenn defense will have no answer. Remember they have a good secondary but it was shredded against UCLA by a 4th string QB. That is basically because they get zero pressure and Tebow should have no problem picking them apart. Tenn offensive Co will get tons of heat put on him, but it is a new system and the head coach is a bum so they might be in for a very tough night against the speed of florida. In my post about Tenn against UCLA the advantage was the rush outside and Tenn never worked it. They do not have such an advantage this game and I am very curious to see where the points will come from. The blitz should be a big key for Florida because Crompton was under heat against a poor UCLA front. I think the Crompton drop and scurry might be more of a problem in this game. Yes the Vols have the home field but thats about it and Urban likes to beat teams and keep it going late. With all the players gone from Tenn I just do not see one big factor that will turn this game. The florida CB's can blanket the WR, The LB's can get to Foster who looked very slow early this season. They O-line was pushed around by a less talented UCLA group, Tebow will have tons of time and the secondary blows coverage assignments. Tenn cannot stop the run (especially when worried about the pass) and there is no player other than Berry that can stay with Harvey. It will be an SEC battle and perhaps Tenn was looking at this game way in advance and thats why they haven't looked great but they are rusty and looked bad and I think they will not be ready for the speed talent and playmaking ability Florida will bring into rocky top. UAB was a nice tune up game but this Tenn team needs more than UAB to get ready for florida. The gators handled Miami by 23 and I think they will put that same fire into this game and come out with a double digit win.

Georgia (-6.5) over Ariz St
Ariz St was exposed last week. Yes it was a look ahead and yes I like what they have but they lack a running game. Thats big because it limits effectiveness of playaction and allows the safety to just play the pass not the run fake. Also it allows the d-lineman to shed blocks to get to carpenter not worry about the back going by them. The biggest factor I see is the hellish sched the bulldogs have had and going to have before this season ends. Still they have a very good defense and that should get to carpenter, he has shown a short fuse in the past and the bulldogs can get right into his head early and often. What I really like is in a tough enviorment against a far better defense last week in So Carolina. They moved the ball and even though it was tough to luck out with a seven point win, thats what they had to do. I do not think the Ariz St defense is nearly as good and the georgia defense looking to rebound from a poor performance should be focused and ready to put up points. The defense should be pressure crazy and force Carpenter to break and when he does they can bury them under the pressure they have on themselves to play well. Also, Georgia was none to happy getting jumped by USC so they should have something to prove. Bama on deck is a worry but this game has a lot of meaning and the boys should be ready. Stafford needs to make some big plays to Massiqoi, he has a size and speed advantage plus the safeties will be knowshon responsible.

Cheers
Irish

 

[cbrown334]

i think i can i think i can.......

i think i can i think i can.......

come on state!!!!

 

[Woodson]

Went complete opposite on you for tonight but love the Florida/Georgia games. I teased them down to a pick earlier in the week and am looking at smaller plays on the side!

Pulling for you on these two!


Cheers!

:toast:

 

[Irish]

WVU (-3) over Colorado
Honestly, I hate this game from a capping standpoint. WVU looked outright bad against ECU and let Villinova move the ball all game. Still they have speed on offense and had a nice time to regroup for this contest. Colorado took everything and everything to get a W last week in their dogfight. Still I think WVU has the speed advantage on offense and it might be a huge advantage depending on how they use their players. White is not a passer then runner. He is a runner then passer, if he sets one up by the other the colorado defense will be baffeled on how to contain him. After all Colorado gave up 303 yards and sacked Easter Washingtons QB just once in 51 attempts. ALSO They need to use Devine more, he should touch the ball at least 25 times in rushing and passing. Isdaner and Stanchek need to get the WVU line head put on straight. WVU has a VERY good line that looked out right man handled against ECU, that needs to change if they want to make something of this season. This will have to be a statement and I think the loss to ECU was just enough to push WVU in this game. This is a nice spot for Colorado to get some attention as they did last season aginst Oklahoma at home. The WVU defense is really a joke, they lack true rushers at DE, the LB's are smaller and can be pushed around and the secondary aside from Adrews hitting ability has big holes but they still have enough talent to stack the box and take away the colorado rushing plan. According to CU they need to run the ball and want to do more running this week. So WVU has to be up to the task of stoping them. I do not think they can stop them enough to win a come from behind game but I think WVU's offense carries them into this cover. White and Devine behind the big pissed off o-line. Also I would love to see white use a quick playaction pass down field and hit screens to get players into space and take advantage of the "fly to the ball" mentallity Hawkings wants from his defense.

Small plays:
Ryder Cup USA (+110) :shrug: The Irish players can't carry Europe for another year :mj06: - No Tiger, No pressure, let the boys just play!

Mich St (-9) over ND
ND always has a few points go their way in the vegas eye and I think they beat a bad Mich team at home. A focused State team in thier own house will not be that easy to shut down.

Ariz (-2.5) over UCLA
The Bruins have holes and the wildcats need a rebound, this PAC 10 team is the team to rebound on. Ariz can get ahead and watch the Bruins fall from within. BYU gave them no life unlike Tenn and they quit in that game.

Miami (-3.5) over Tex A&M
Miami needs the win and the aggies have injuries in big spots. Home field will help them but the aggies just don't have enough. Two bad teams but the hurricans have more talent and a young team looking foir a good win.