Week 4 NFL Plays

[Nick Douglas]

Before this season I decided to sort of give myself a report card after every four weeks. My goal was to hit about 60% of my plays so I was looking to go 12-8 or better in each 4 week section. This first four week section has been a disappoint thus far because I have frittered away a great start with two straight losing weeks. To get my 12 wins for the first four weeks I would need a 5-0 week, which is within reach. No matter what my returns on this week, I still am dedicated to reaching the 60% plateau for the season.

As you might expect, values for 1*, 2* and 3* plays remain the same because my results have not netted a significant gain or loss to date. I haven't played any 1* or 3* games yet, but those will probably come around week 7 or so. I really feel strongly about this week's card and I hope you all take a look at these plays closely. Good luck this week.

Chicago +3 over BUFFALO 2*

Carolina +7 over GREEN BAY 2*

JACKSONVILLE -3 1/2 over Jets 2*

ARIZONA +3 over Giants 2*

Minnesota +3 over SEATTLE 2*

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, Nick. I'm w/ u on Chi and Min. I'm a Packer fan, and Carolina scares me this wk. Think u have the right side there. Do you think Jax is fundamentally that much better than the Jets? Have to figure Jets give a strong effort after two duds.

 

[yyz]

Bears defense gets pounded like tough veal this week, and Packers are finally in a position to hammer someone. (Even as beat up as they are.)

 

[NuttyGambler]

Had mine posted earlier yesterday before you and am right with you. Also feel good about my pics this week. Here is wishing you 5-0!!! These come to the top in both mathimatical and team issues.

The only one I'm a little unsure of is the Minni, because I am not 100% sure it was not somewhat emotional on my part so it is good to see you have it too.

 

[TheShrimp]

Nick --

I haven't read your baseball picks too much but I recall you liking teams that came back the day before from a lot down, only to lose. I may be mistaken, but that's something I recall...anyway...

I was wondering if you like the same angle in football, and if so, what do you think about the chiefs getting 3.5 this week? would you factor in any sort of a 'letdown' for the Phins after getting the jet-monkey off their backs?

Is there another element to that angle, like a let-down after a big come-back and win. And as it pertains to this week, the Browns.

Thanks and GL this week.

 

[hoya]

Nick, any reason for the Cards pick? Giants as usual get no respect from anybody, and perhaps rightfully so before the season started but they've played better than anyone thought they would. They just had their letdown game last week and still snuck out the win against Seattle. You'd think that game woke them up and they always play Arizona well anyways. If the line was 5 or 6 i'd like the Cards, but at 3 you're basically taking them to win straight up. Any reasons?

 

[Redfish]

Nick....like your picks....but the Minn game....I don't know. I've looked at all the stats, H to H match ups. on the road, whether or not the players got laid and just can't see the Vikes on this one. Hags are obviously concentrating on winning while Minn is still trying to figure out what offensive scheme with what players will get them in the end zone. Furthermore, I think Dante has lost all confidence in RM. Tice seems to playing the role as a bystander rather than being the headcoach and has lost the team unity whereas the players are merely going thru the motions with no integrity. Just my observations.....GL.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thanks for the relplies, guys.

-The baseball angle is largely based on the fact that the games are played back to back so there is less time between games and they are playing the same team. It really doesn't work that way in football.

-I know some people will be expecting a break out game from Seattle or Green Bay or even the Giants, but I just don't see it. Green Bay simply does not match up well with that great Carolina defensive line and I see that as a huge key. Seattle will have tough times defending the pass in my opinion because Moss is too good. The Giants are a good team but look at it this way: Before the season is there any way the Giants would have been favored by 3 points on the road vs. anybody except Houston? I sincerely doubt it. They are a pretty good team but Arizona is better than folks think and I think they get the win here.

-The Bears are just an extremely strong play. Man, I have to say that I absolutely love this play. I almost want to make it a 3* play.

-I think that Jacksonville is an elite team and I think that the Jets are worth fading until they show the ability to do something on the offensive or defensive line. I will fully admit that on paper there doesn't seem to be a whole heck of a lot of "value" in laying 3 1/2 with the Jags in this spot but I just have to go with the attitude of the teams and where they seem to be headed.

Good luck this weekend

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Nick. Good info. I respect your work. GL this week.

Bears' secondary worries me some this week. But the Bears' offense will do fine this week imo. Miller looks sharp to me, and this Bills' defense is getting ripped. Only real scenario I see Buffalo winning is a shootout, 34-30 type gm. Go, Bears. (Yikes, I'm a Packer fan).

 

[Nick Douglas]

Bears vs. Bills should be very interesting. I really think this is a great litmus test for the Bills because the Bears should be way up here after the bad loss last week.

Even more interesting IMO is Carolina vs. Green Bay. I think that the Panthers are for real. Just my opinion, but I am very, very impressed by that defense in general and front four in particular. GL

 

[GM]

Nick,

How do you feel Carolina's offence changes without Muhammad in the lineup? Looks like he's not playing.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Sorry I didn't get back to you. I handicapped the game figuring Muhammad would be out. I like the matchups in the trenches for the Panthers.

As far as these afternoon games go, definitely take a look at Arizona as well as the Chargers. San Diego was very close to being a play for me and I think they have a great shot here. GL