I'm a HUGE Ravens fan. I live in Baltimore so I get to listen to all the player radio shows and get lots of coverage that most of the nation doesn't.
Here is what I am hearing a lot this week, most surprisingly from Ray Rice, "We are going to be heading into Kansas City next week 3-1". Yes, after wins against the Bengals and Patriots and a 1 point controversial road Eagles loss, many of the Ravens have put this game against the Browns in the win column....already.
The Browns are 0-3 and are DESPERATE! They have played tough all 3 weeks, their biggest loss was 10 points. Nobody has steam rolled this team.
The Ravens defense is horrible. The defense that is infamous for allowing an opposing 100 yard rushing game, maybe once a year, has done so twice this year already, after only 3 weeks. The Browns have this guy named Trent Richardson. He is good. The Browns WILL, repeat WILL move the ball on the ground tonight and this will open up some passing opportunities (especially against the Ravens #29). Cary Williams has been likened to the Will Ferrel movie where as a Nascar driver, he ran around like he was on fire. That's how bad Mr Williams got burned last week by Mr. Brady.
The Ravens WILL move the ball. They are clicking on offense. I see them once again getting into the mid to high 20's.
I see an opportunity for the Browns to own time of possession. This would limit the Ravens scoring. I think the Browns really make a game of this and would not be shocked to see the Browns up at the half.
Bottom Line: Ravens win but get a whole lot more from the Browns than they are expecting. It is just human nature. Vegas puts the line up to "even out the skill level" and draw even wagering. The entire nation just saw 31 points points put up on the AFC champs and stop Brady when it really counted. Lots of money on the Ravens tonight. In my opinion, the line should have been set at 14 or 15, but it wasn't. Vegas seems to be coercing Raven money to come in. I see the Browns MUCH more motivated tonight than the Ravens. There was a huge motivational factor for the Ravens to put in their best effort Monday night, the loss of Torrey Smith's brother. The entire team wanted to win for him. Torrey played the game of his life. It will be VERY difficult for this team and especially Torrey to crank it back up to that intensity.
Add in some stats: Ravens as a 10+pt favorite in the last 3 years...1-5 ATS, but 6-0 straight up.
Cleveland as a 10 pt dog last 3 years....4-2 ATS....1-5 straight up.
Cleveland is 2-0 ATS last 2 vs Ravens at Baltimore.
Ravens are 0-4 ATS last 4 games as a home favorite of 10 plus.
Prediction: Ravens 27 Browns 23
Play: Browns +12
**As a fan, this game really worries me.**
