Week 4

[Blackman]

YTD: 16-10 +5.34 units

Lines look tight for this early in the season, I was hoping for another week like last week as far as soft lines.

Last week reassured my strategy to make all plays one unit, as Cincy would have been what I considered my best bet and it was the only loser. Just always seems to work that way.


Initial leans, nothing set in stone:

Wake Forest
Louisville
Mich State
Vandy
Wisconsin
Clemson
Utah
Cincy
USC
Arkansas
Texas
Minnesota


Line movement will dictate a lot of my plays this week.

Be back later -- good luck with your research

 

[CWood97]

Mich St looks like a solid play this week.

 

[Irish]

Blackman
Good Luck this weekend...looks like we both like Utah. I'm still looking at Minn but it is a strong lean.

Irish

 

[Blackman]

First play:

Arkansas -3 (-130)...one of my outs was slow to move this line so I played it and bought down to a field goal. In all honesty I expected this line to hover around 7 all week, so I feel really good about having the razorbacks at 3. Three key characters here, Matt Jones, Houston Nutt and Marc Guillon. Jones brings a lot of intangibles to the table, and has that will to win that I love in a QB. He reminds me of what Bradlee Van Pelt was to Colorado State over the past few seasons, and emotially and physical leader that finds a way to get it done. Nutt always has his team well prepared for big games, especially at home. In the 4th quarter with the game on the line I fully expect Nutt to outcoach Shula on Saturday. As for Guillon this is a really tough spot to make your first start. I think Bama will try to use the run as a crutch for him, but going back to Nutt he's too smart to let that work all day. Arkansas is going to make Guillon beat them, which is asking a ton of someone in their first SEC game.

First road game for Alabama plus a new QB is a bad combo here heading to Arkansas. Jones didn't find a way to win vs Texas, but was close, and I think this is a matchup he'll come out on top.

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

GL BM! Really like USC, Louisville and Vandy out of those, BUT think Indiana upsets Mich St. at home....These teams I feel are going in opposite directions. Not a huge play, but feel the home dog gets the win there.....

 

[CapstoneAlf]

Everybody acts like Bama is dead in the water here. It's not like we have some freshman replacing Brody, Guilon actually contributed at Miami before transferring to Bama. He threw touchdown passes backing up Dorsey as a true freshman at the U. Last time Bama went to Fayetteville with a QB making their first SEC start, Brody lit them up and the Tide rolled 30-12. A play on the hogs is wasted money. Play the Tide and the money line. Bama rolls here. True Arkansas played pretty good against Texas, but who is really sold on Texas and Mack Brown. Bama played really good against OU last year, but still lost 9 damn games, including a double overtime thriller to Arkansas which serves up a big time revenge factor in this one. Bottom line is this, I would rather have to replace one starting quarterback than 18 starters. Yes, you heard me, Arkansas returns 4 starters from last year. Play the Tide. Bama wins 20-13.

 

[Blackman]

Everybody acts like Bama is dead in the water here. It's not like we have some freshman replacing Brody, Guilon actually contributed at Miami before transferring to Bama. He threw touchdown passes backing up Dorsey as a true freshman at the U. Last time Bama went to Fayetteville with a QB making their first SEC start, Brody lit them up and the Tide rolled 30-12. A play on the hogs is wasted money. Play the Tide and the money line. Bama rolls here. True Arkansas played pretty good against Texas, but who is really sold on Texas and Mack Brown. Bama played really good against OU last year, but still lost 9 damn games, including a double overtime thriller to Arkansas which serves up a big time revenge factor in this one. Bottom line is this, I would rather have to replace one starting quarterback than 18 starters. Yes, you heard me, Arkansas returns 4 starters from last year. Play the Tide. Bama wins 20-13.

Best of luck to you Capstonealf. Personally I'd never put money down on a QB that got beat out by Brock Berlin, but that's just me.

 

[Blackman]

Thanks for the feedback RightSide. I agree Mich St isn't the best spot here, they are one of the leans that were thrown out pretty quickly. I don't trust Indiana enough to put cash down on them, but I'm not playing Mich St as a road favorite either.

 

[CapstoneAlf]

guillon and berlin were never at Miami at the same time.

 

[Blackman]

I thought Berlin transfered in to replace Dorsey, and Gullion left because of this. They may not have been on campus at the same time, but essentially Berlin beat out Guillon to be Dorsey's successor. If I'm wrong I apologize but that is the impression I am under.

 

[Blackman]

Louisville -7 (-120)...we know that Louisville is going to score, but their defense is what has impressed me early this year. The shutout of Kentucky is impressive, considering that is a big rivalry game, and that KU put up 51 points vs Indiana. UVA showed a blueprint to how to score on UNC, and Louisville has the horses on offense to score with anyone. UNC did show that they can score last week, but in this one I'm going with the better overall team who had an extra week to prepare for this one.

 

[Blackman]

Bowling Green +1.5....couple things I like in this matchup. NIU has had three hard fought games thus far, all of which where close and it has taken a toll on them. 6 day turnaround to play one of their conference rivals, who have an extra week off to prepare for this one. The Bowling Green offense is still potent, the fact that they put up 24 against Oklahoma reassures that, and Jacobs' 6 to 1 td to int ratio is a good sign that his decision making is sound. Both teams lost stars from last year, but BG's replacement for Harris is much better than anything NIU can find to fill the void left by Turner. NIU gave up a lot of points to Iowa State and I expect BG to score in bunches as well.

 

[gman2]

good luck this week blackman. ill pop back in your thread closer to saturday afternoon to see what your final card looks like. as always, your threads make for good reading and info. land a haymaker on the man this weekend, brother.

 

[Blackman]

Purdue -20.5....Illinois' defense is a mess, and Purdue's offense has been lights out to start the season. Illinois has let opponents average 256 yards through the air and 159 yards on the ground, which is poor, and especially poor considering two of their three games were vs Florida A&M and Western Michigan. Just feel the attack of Purdue that has averaged 585 total yards a game and 55 points per game is too much for the Illini to handle. Expect Purdue to match the 43 point output they had against Illinois last year.

 

[ajoytoy]

go get em this weekend B!


toy

 

[CapstoneAlf]

All over

Purdue
Miami
Florida

3-0 hit it.

 

[redking]

I like the write-ups Blackman. Good luck, dun!

 

[RexBudler]

Best of luck to you this weekend my friend

 

[lay the wood2]

Blackman
good luck this weekend, ill be up in beantown.....wont be near the pc....
purdue looks like the strongest play for me this weekend

ltw2

 

[Double Two]

Good Luck This Weekend!!!