Week # 5 Anti Public Line Movement "System"

[Theboundbook]

While I agree in principle with what you are saying, I'd be careful with totals. Weather factors can be just as influential to the number than the gate on one side.

I know you touched on this but I think it's a real consideration and something worth noting on a game by game basis.

Best of luck with your system.

Absolutely agree. Not sure if these plays I through in tonight are weather related but you are ABSOLUTELY correct about that and is well noted. I appreciate anyone's thoughts on what Im doing and again, this is something new to me. Most of you know that I make most of my money year in and year out in MLB and thats it. I do bet all sports, but most of them I am losing overall. Especially football. (NFL the most).

We'll see how this goes. But a trend that has gone 6-6 is dogs on weeknights in NCAAF. And 4 of the 6 are s.u. winners including a 7 point dog and of course a 25 point dog last night.

 

[Blackman]

Absolutely agree. Not sure if these plays I through in tonight are weather related but you are ABSOLUTELY correct about that and is well noted. I appreciate anyone's thoughts on what Im doing and again, this is something new to me. Most of you know that I make most of my money year in and year out in MLB and thats it. I do bet all sports, but most of them I am losing overall. Especially football. (NFL the most).

We'll see how this goes. But a trend that has gone 6-6 is dogs on weeknights in NCAAF. And 4 of the 6 are s.u. winners including a 7 point dog and of course a 25 point dog last night.

Good stuff. Believe we agreed on the Air Force play last week that ended up a winner due to this insane line movement (and wouldn't have been if we bet the opening line)

If for nothing else, the opening lines are often sharp and set that way for a reason. If you can get 3-4 points of a value off that opening number, it's going to give you a distinct advantage. I prefer to take it on a game by game basis, but the theory is sound.

Good sport to test it on as we have a 6 day window for line movement to take place, unlike the daily sports (NBA comes to mind).

 

[Theboundbook]

Yep. Can you believe that E. Carolina went up another half point on the total. Now at 62!!! Cant wait to see it tomorrow. I havent seen a line move this much this year yet. (Really just started seriously looking 2 weeks ago and this is the first Sat I am applying it.)

I hope it goes up another 2 pts by game time. And Ball St I have a feeling is gonna rocket up too. Gonna throw a 100.00 parlay on the top 3 or 4 movement lines. Probably a 4 teamer and put in 2 right before the game starts and have 2 opens so I can watch throughout the day. This is gonna be fun tracking this if nothing else. And if this works like I think it will... :SIB :SIB :SIB

And yep, AF was a winner because of that line movement. No other reason. I guess you could have taken Utah on Tues and then came back and hit AF before kickoff and hit that middle!

Will be watching closely tomorrow. You can bet on it.

 

[Scoop Mackenzie]

Great thread and interesting system. I believe in watching line moves closely but this is just the tip of the iceberg to me because several questions come to mind.

Why did the line move? As others mentioned "public" betting is one reason (I will get into that more in a sec) but injuries, weather, and other reasons like mistakes can move the line. When a line moves I think its important to find out why.

Back to who the public bets, does anyone else see this as a difficult task to really find out who the public is on? You can look at sites that document a consensus but often that is just some folks picking a side without laying money on it, and lets face it money is what moves the line. Then comes the uneasy task of figuring out who is placing the money, sharps or so called wise guys or joe public?

Maybe I am breaking it down too much and looking too deep into it but I like your system and wanted to try and refine it for my own use.

s c OO p

 

[Mustang008]

Just a FYI - 4 of those total moves are because of a service putting out those as plays - guy is usually pretty solid on the totals he went 4-0 last week against his released number - one did hit where you could have had a middle with the closing number. Good luck.

 

[Theboundbook]

9/27/2008 12:03 PM Total 165.00 150.00 Football - 121 North Carolina (Football)/Miami Florida (Football) over 41? -110 for Game

This line moved from 45 down to 41.5

 

[Theboundbook]

No Illinois dropped to 50.5!!!! A total of six and a half points! I missed it though. Dammit!

This would have been the one I put a GRAND on for my experiment. Lets see how it goes.

 

[Theboundbook]

9/27/2008 12:03 PM Total 165.00 150.00 Football - 121 North Carolina (Football)/Miami Florida (Football) over 41? -110 for Game

This line moved from 45 down to 41.5

This is LOOKING JUST LIKE I PLANNED. 24 points scored so far and still 5 minutes left till the half!!!!

 

[Theboundbook]

9/27/2008 1:36 PM Spread 100.00 105.00 Football - 165 Kent (Football) +7? +105 for 2nd Half

Liked them at 21 for the game. Like em even more at 21.5 and the +105!

 

[Theboundbook]

E. Mich has the same amount of possession time, yards, but NO POINTS. Gotta believe they start scoring just like No. Ill. has been.

9/27/2008 1:45 PM Total 250.00 250.00 Football - 127 No Illinois (Football)/Eastern Michigan (Football) over 24 +100 for 2nd Half

Still believe this game goes over...

 

[77sticks]

Love it TBB..

Risk / To Win Amount: 250.00 / 262.50 (USD) Accepted 9/27/2008 1:53 PM - EST

Sport / Period: College Football / 2nd Half
Line:
Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan 9/27/2008 12:00:01 PM - (EST)
Over 24 +105

 

[Theboundbook]

9/27/2008 2:09 PM Parlay 210.00 532.53 Football - 124 Florida (Football) -11 -120 for 2nd Half
Football - 163 Army (Football)/Texas A&M (Football) over 21 -105 for 2nd Half

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Just curious, have you been keeping year-to-year statistics on the number of public winners and losers? In other words, something like...

2006 - 54%
2007 - 51%
2008 - ?

I only ask because this is a concept that a lot of people talk about (going against the public, that is), but I've never seen any actually figures on it. It seems like a lot of people focus on games where the public is the wrong side, but they don't pay attention when the public gets it right. I know last week alone there were a lot of public-backed teams (at least by percentage) who won.

Also, and Mustang touched on this, there are a few touts who have such a strong following that their picks will move the lines 2-3 points every week when they release their plays. I know most people refuse to believe it, but there are actually a few touts who do pretty well year in and year out.

Like I said last week, I'm very interested to see how this plays out. GL to you this week and the rest of the season.

 

[Theboundbook]

9/27/2008 12:03 PM Total 165.00 150.00 Football - 121 North Carolina (Football)/Miami Florida (Football) over 41? -110 for Game

This line moved from 45 down to 41.5

Boom 1st one in! 10 min left and it went over. Its pushing right now on the opening line.

 

[Theboundbook]

No I havent been keeping track. Just started this week seriously on this. NO Ill game moved 6.5 pts and it still went under. Public won there. E. Car matched em every stat but NO POINTS. That game could have totally been an over....

Kent St covers like I thought they would. Ball State covered if you got in early. With all the line movement, Kent St covers for me.

Had to get Ball St at -17.5 to -20 to win. I got em at 21.5 (Kent)

 

[Theboundbook]

North Carolina upsets!!! And Fla may lose too! Not a good day for Fla people...

 

[Wolver98]

Miss just blocked Fl extra pt. attempt. I went with the under in the E. Car game so lets play some "D".

 

[Theboundbook]

/27/2008 1:41 PM Parlay 50.00 249.62 Football - 109 Western Michigan (Football) -190 for Game
Football - 135 Purdue (Football) +110 for Game
Football - 120 Duke (Football) -3 -115 for 2nd Half


So I am HEDGING 2nd half with ND:

9/27/2008 5:25 PM Spread 60.00 50.00 Football - 136 Notre Dame (Football) pk -120 for 2nd Half

 

[Theboundbook]

Just pulled Cent. Mich out of my ass to win!

3 more ML wins to go:


1 9/27/2008 0:41 AM Parlay 100.00 1,222.78 Football - 109 Western Michigan (Football) -190 for Game
Football - 120 Duke (Football) -280 for Game
Football - 127 No Illinois (Football) -235 for Game
Football - 130 Central Michigan (Football) -260 for Game
Football - 146 Georgia (Football) -260 for Game
Football - 148 Auburn (Football) -265 for Game
Football - 153 Fresno State (Football) -280 for Game
Football - 167 South Florida (Football) -400 for Game

Need South Fla., Georgia, and Fresno St!!!!!

 

[Theboundbook]

8872264-1 9/27/2008 1:44 PM Round Robin Item 25.00 291.64 Football - 136 Notre Dame (Football) -130 for Game
Football - 147 Tennessee U (Football) +6? -110 for Game
Football - 170 Florida State (Football) -6? -110 for Game
Football - 182 Hawaii (Football) -3 -105 for Game
58872264-2 9/27/2008 1:44 PM Round Robin Item 25.00 134.23 Football - 136 Notre Dame (Football) -130 for Game
Football - 147 Tennessee U (Football) +6? -110 for Game
Football - 170 Florida State (Football) -6? -110 for Game
58872264-3 9/27/2008 1:44 PM Round Robin Item 25.00 137.82 Football - 136 Notre Dame (Football) -130 for Game
Football - 147 Tennessee U (Football) +6? -110 for Game
Football - 182 Hawaii (Football) -3 -105 for Game
58872264-4 9/27/2008 1:44 PM Round Robin Item 25.00 137.82 Football - 136 Notre Dame (Football) -130 for Game
Football - 170 Florida State (Football) -6? -110 for Game
Football - 182 Hawaii (Football) -3 -105 for Game
58872264-5 9/27/2008 1:44 PM Round Robin Item 25.00 153.97 Football - 147 Tennessee U (Football) +6? -110 for Game
Football - 170 Florida State (Football) -6? -110 for Game
Football - 182 Hawaii (Football) -3 -105 for Game
58908585-1 9/27/2008 5:25 PM Spread 60.00 50.00 Football - 136 Notre Dame (Football) pk -120 for 2nd Half

This was a 25 each way 3s n 4s round robin. Just need Fla St to cover and Haw tonight and sweep it!!!!! What do you guys think of Haw game?