Week 5 Card (Sept 26th- 30th)

[Irish]

So. Miss (-4.5) over Central Florida
Fletcher rushing for 177 yards and three touchdowns on 28 carries against N.C. State. This is extremely impressive for a freshman. Through 3 games he leads C-USA and ranks 9th in the nation with 382 yards and 5 TDs. The Golden Eagles lead C-USA with 212 rushing yards per game. The So. Miss line is big and can push the D-line to open holes. The success of the running game has helped Young as a QB deal with the pressure. It is true the Young hasn't really done a great job at qb but he hasn't had to in their 2 wins. It was ugly against florida but the C.Fla defense is not as good as the gators. This year the CFLA defense is allowing 464 total yards per game (11th in C-USA), but its 6 takeaways in 3 games hasn't been enough to prevent 27.3 points per game. Last year the Golden Knights used takeaways to stay in games, and that is what So. Miss has to avoid. If Young can avoid the big mistake and allow Fletcher to run they should be fine. The So. Miss defense has improved from its poor showing against florida. I like the o-line for the eagles with the improving defense against a golden knights team that has struggled against South Florida and florida. An indication these teams are matched closely is the outputs against florida both teams got hammered but So. Miss looked a little better and that is the reason for the play. IMO So. Miss is just a bit better and to open the conference schedule on national TV the eagles should look to out play UCF.

Cheers
Irish

 

[taoist]

...hate laying chalk in small conf games on the road...and I'll probably pass, but best of luck to you this week on this and all of your other games.

 

[Irish]

So.Miss/UCF UNDER (9.5) 1st quarter

I can see both teams starting a bit slow with so much youth on both teams in a national TV game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

good luck irish...

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this week(end) Irish

 

[thom24ad]

So.Miss/UCF UNDER (9.5) 1st quarter

I can see both teams starting a bit slow with so much youth on both teams in a national TV game.

Cheers
Irish

good call on the slow start Irish...I tailed your play at -6.5 after reading your post...started to get a little worried before the game...the 3-yr starting QB 5 returning on the offense of line with a 1000 yard rusher along with the 9 defensive players returning and a home dog against a public play...but after seeing the first few series I think we could be on the right side...played the under as well (AR182) with a parlay...GL

 

[Irish]

GT (+9) over VT
Suspended VT players and a poor offense is the reason I like GT. The hokies have not shown me anything on offense this season. GT wr are too tall and fast for the secondary of VT. Losing Ellis should give GT a little breathing room in the pocket. The Hokies rank 2nd in the nation in scoring defense at 5.8 points per game, and are 7th in Division 1-A in total defense (223.5 yards). Georgia Tech was 3-0 heading into last season's game but left with its confidence shattered after Virginia Tech hammered the Yellow Jackets 51-7. But that VT team was far better than this one. Yes the hokies play very well at home and they have a very loud fan base. But remember GT is 18th in the nation in total defense, allowing 249 yards per game. VT has not seen a very good defense as of yet this season and Glennon still has 3 picks on the season. Scary thought is this is GT first away game so I am not sure how GT travels. Yellow Jackets have scored 97 points in the last three games. GT is playing with a lot of confidence, the question is can they come into Blacksburg and continue. IMO GT will play well and I do not think VT will do the same against the GT defense. I have not seen Glennon look sharp as of yet and to spot GT 9 with key players missing and GT?s mobile QB, decent running game and tremendous WR group is in my thoughts just too much. The VT defense will keep GT limited but I don?t think VT is ready for GT?s defense.

small plays
OSU (-7) over Iowa - IMO OSU a better team but it is tough playing At iowa still they hammered texas in texas. If OSU gets up for this team have too much talent.

Florida (-13) over Bama
Florida the better team, playing at home Bama reloading and the Swamp will be unfriendly in this SEC match-up

Oregon St(+9.5) over Cal
A little let down after ASU, look ahead to Oregon, bad road play and Oregon being a good home team. Still small after seeing how bad the run defense played against Boise

Should have a few more later
Cheers
Irish

 

[thom24ad]

I've got Florida and GT circled as well...Virginia Tech's QB is awful and GT is good for a couple big upset wins a season and I'm debating on playing the under in that game...

I like Florida at home and Bama just doesn't really have it this year...

I've seen Iowa play every single one of their games this season and I'm not impressed...I'm don't want to sound biased as a Buckeye fan but I even moved them down in my season rankings and IMO I see them having three losses this season...I don't know maybe they show up for the first time this year with a hyped home night game...but from what I've seen so far I don't think the Hawks will give OSU much trouble...close in the first half and OSU blows open in the second...too bad this is a no play for me because I don't play my teams...

I've already played Auburn (-14.5) tomorrow night...Any thoughts?...I think the Gamecocks are a slow start team in the first few weeks of the season and don't start winning big games/upsets until they get to the second half of their schedule...their not ready for Auburn yet...

Great job on getting the early line in last night's game...I got screwed in a bad line @ -6.5...the two-point conversion was a huge play for my cover...Moffet really sucks though...Smith is going to be a beast; I can see him transferring...Young, Flectcher, and Grey really showed me something last night...They are all young and talented this team could be this year's Rutgers down the road...My only gripe is some of the play calling for Southern was terrible on 3rd downs and the two point conversion...Young needs to use his legs a little more there was time after time he all kinds of field in front of him...

Great hit last night Irish and Good Luck this weekend...as always thanks for the post...

 

[Irish]

TCU (-5) over BYU
The horn frogs shut down a very good offense in Texas tech. TCU plays very well at home and BYU has lost its both road games. Granted they were by a slim margin but still on of those games was to Arizona and they have not been as good of a team as I thought. The Horned Frogs are 3rd in the nation in run defense, allowing only 37 yards per game. TCU hasn't allowed an opponent to rush for more than 59 yards in the last 6 games, and Texas Tech had only 38 on the ground. The teams played a thriller in Provo last season, with the Horned Frogs rallying from an 18-point third-quarter deficit to win 51-50 in overtime. TCU is getting healthy as time has gone by and they have Merrill, Hobbs and DePriest back and pretty much 100% which is a very good bit of news for the TCU offense. The horn frog?s defense has stepped up and now it is time for the offense to do the same. I am not a big Ballard supporter because he just doesn?t look to have the accuracy and instinct I once saw in him. Still he has managed to get his team to win and I cannot take that away from him. offense has averaged only 14.5 points per game against Division 1 opponents, and Patterson said penalties have been the biggest culprit in the lack of production. I am thinking TCU is a very good home team and they should be ready for this test. Beck is a VERY good QB and after sitting out last week he is feeling a bit better and his 70% completion average is tough to play against. Still TCU played TT very well and they shut down the passing offense. I expect BYU?s defense will be in the 6 deep and that?s no easy task to throw against. Still the RB trio should be able to get some production and they will work possessions. The home crowd, defense and running game gives the frogs the advantage in my book.

Cheers
Irish

 

[thom24ad]

Good Luck Irish...I'm going to the bar tonight for the game I'll be certain to cheers a shot of Jamison to you...

 

[Irish]

So. Carolina (+14) over Auburn
I think Auburn is one of the best teams in NCAA football. They have a defense and solid running back. Auburn outscored Washington State and Mississippi State by a combined 74-14 in its first 2 games. The good news for SC is Newton is a better QB than Mitchell and I trust him a bit more in the passing game. This passing game will be key and getting the ball into Rice?s hands is a must for SC is they want to have a shot in this game. The Tigers beat South Carolina 48-7 last season. That?s not good and considering they are coming off a bad game the tigers will look to rebound on SC. Still spotting the defense of SC 14 at home is a lot of chalk. The way SC will have a shot in this game is to not get behind early, to play the running game tough and keep the crowd in the game. I do not think SC has a shot to win this game but stranger things have happened. I think Cox can be baited into poor throws and the front groups for SC have to play better than they have showed. The o-line has to move bodies and the D-line has to be successful in creating pressure. I also know Spurrir will open his whole play book in this game. I am sure he will have a few trick plays in place and the gamecocks have to execute. Overall Auburn is the better team but like I said spotting SC 14 at home is tough considering they only lost by 18 @ Georgia. Nationally televised game at home should get SC fired up and they should attempt to keep this close and hold for FG?s and if they do that I do not have a lot of faith in the tigers kicker to be spot on all night with the crowd noise

Cheers
Irish

 

[Cie]

Nice analysis. Good luck:weed:

 

[Irish]

SC/AUB UNDER (7.5) 1st quarter

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

SC/AUB UNDER (14) 2nd quarter

nice 2 min defense Auburn.....:sadwave: 22 seconds and you can't hold them to a FG?

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

SC/AUB OVER (7.5) 3rd quarter

Auburn gets the ball and has 2 TD's on 3 drives, SC should have scored a TD when they fumbled and chased down the defender and got it back for a FG. Both teams have the defenses figured out. Adjustments will make it tougher but Irons and Nelson can move the ball for their teams. Nelson has to keep drives alive with his feet...... UNFRIGGIN REAL 3rd and GL with 30 sec left and they can't convert... Getting jobbed tonight, I stink!

Also not a baseball guy but gonna play:
SD :SIB (-1.5) over Diamondbacks

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

SC/AUB OVER (14) 4th quarter
Spurrir - great call on 4th and 1, Man those were some terrible quarter beats and push!

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Rutgers (-3.5) over So. Florida
I do not like the Rutgers passing attack. Teel completes 58% and has WAY too many turnovers on the season. BUT The Scarlet Knights, will rely more on their running game with the absence of injured wide receiver Shawn Tucker. SF?s QB Grothe will be in for tough sledding the Bulls passer has looked good but he turns the ball over too much in bad spots to get the bulls as productive as they should be. Their pass defense is ranked 7th in the country at 85.1 yards per game, and they're 11th in rushing defense at 69.3 yards per contest. Rutgers will be looking for some revenge against South Florida, which topped the Scarlet Knights 45-31 at Rutgers Stadium last Nov. 5. The fact that Rutgers is in the top 25, coming in with a bit of revenge and the running game should be way too much for the bulls. There is one thing Rutgers can do to stop SF, spy Grothe, if they do that he will be ineffective and so will the bulls offense. So Florida is 3-1 but they have played no one other than Kansas and they lost to the jayhawks by 6. This will be a much tougher contest and on national TV Rutgers will look to show the country what they are about and also the coach will use this as a recruiting tool. All good things for the knights and based on record alone this is a good game but based on talent Rutgers has the edge. The bulls really do not have the horses for this game, they will get a boost from the crowd but IMO not enough to stay with the knights. Rutgers has beaten teams better than this and the UNC game is a good indication of what to expect, I think Rutgers has the ability to run away with this game but because it is at SF it will be a bit harder.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

RUT/SF OVER (7.5) 1st quarter

As I said last night not a baseball guy but:
Padres (-1.5) over D'backs

Cheers
Irish

 

[thebsmanofkent]

GL on your card, fwiw I like GT+9 as well,
I didn't play it, but I think it gets there.....

 

[roymunson]

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