Week 5 look - OAK VS BEARS, 4.5??

[chuckdman]

Well, I like to start early to look at the lines and stats just so I can get a good start and hopefully bring out some of the stats and opinions here.

I was stupid enough to take the under in the GB/bears game but.. for future reference boys, fade me on Monday night.. I have been 0-4 so far...

So here is the game of the week IMO.

Oakland goes to Chicago for a matchup. Line is set to -4.5 for Oakland which I have to say is a complete joke. I know Oakland has looked like crap the last few weeks but I do believe that the Bears really suck! They are the worst team against the run and GB dismantled them on Monday night. To add, if you can run the ball on a team, chances are you can throw it even better because they will try to stop the run!!

This one looks like a no brainer but would be interested in some stats or some opinions before I lay the wood on this. Probably will put it down on Wednesday because I do think it will go up

Good Luck in Week 5..

 

[ststrl]

Re: Week 5 look - OAK VS BEARS, 4.5??

This one looks like a no brainer but would be interested in some stats or some opinions before I lay the wood on this. Probably will put it down on Wednesday because I do think it will go up

I'm on the Raiders but looks like the line isn't going up, -3.5 @ Olympic Did the Bears stellar performance last night sway everyone

 

[RipIt3]

I've been rummaging through some info...

Oakland's run defense is one of the worst in the league. The Bears, contrary to popular opinion, can run the ball successfully (avg 4.9 yards/carry) and if they are going to have a game where they face a defense they match up well against it is this Oakland Raider's D. Oakland can not stop the run and if Chicago can find success there early in the game, it will force Oakland to stay at home and protect against the run. This will result in less blitzes - which have been giving the Bears fits. Stewart through for 200+ yards last night while being knocked down the entire game. Oakland doesn't have the D-Line nor the linebacking corps to put that kind of pressure on a Bears passing game if the Bears can establish the run - which they can do against a porous Oakland D.

As far as Oakland's offense is concerned, I don't know what to think. Chicago's defensive backs were horrendous last night, but I don't know that Rice/Brown have much left in the tank to stick it to a defense.

The Bears game-plan should be focused on the run. "Hey Shupe -listen up! YOU CAN RUN THE BALL! GIVE IT TO ANTHONTY THOMAS AND RUN THE THING UP THE MIDDLE! OAKLAND'S RUN D SUCKS MY BUTT!" There, I told him. The Bears' gameplan should be focused on controlling the clock and pounding the football. Just because Kordell's in town doesn't mean the old-school Bears smashmouth football should be out the window (although it appears it is). The Bears can maintain a drive on the ground, this will result keeping the ball out of Oakland's O's hands, which will be just as pivotal in this game as the Bears actually scoring. With the right offensive structure, the Bears are set up to succeed (who knew?) at this and if they can, this total might stay under and the game will be closer than expected.

However, this is the Dick Jauron and Shupe (shoop, however the hell you spell it) Bears and their offenses haven't made sense for 3 years. It's horrible to watch. I cry inside...

"Hey Chicago, Nebraska called, they want thier QB-Option back!"
un-frickin' believable

It depends on what they decide to do with the ball. If they want to throw 20 yard passes on 3rd and 1, they won't get it done. If they want to throw on 1st down, or throw 3 yard passes on 3rd and 8, they won't get it done. If they wise up and pound the ball (which they can do against this Oakland D), they will be able to control the ball and keep it close...

my 2cents
GL this week!

 

[RipIt3]

<--- Pissed Off

<--- Pissed Off

The Bears are so stupid...

They don't have the pass protection to throw the ball. And the passes they do throw don't make sense, but that's not why they're dumb...

There are 13 teams in the NFL who are averaging better than 4.5 yards/carry on offense. Oakland is one of those, but they have a running back who is injury prone and don't run it as often, in preference to the pass. So we're not going to count them. That leaves 12 teams. The Chicago Bears are one of those teams, sitting at #5 with 4.9 yards/carry.

The 11 teams left average just about 148 yards rushing per game on an average of 4.9 yards per carry. That means they are rushing the ball about 30 times a game.

The Bears can run the football. The Bears average 4.9 yards per carry. So, what do they do? Throw dinky-ass passes. Unbelievable. They are averaging 105.3 yards per game on the ground.

Riddle me this: Why, with an O-Line that can't protect the QB to allow him to throw and a defense that is giving up a massive amount of points per game, doesn't the offense become focused on ball control and running the football? Why do they average 9 less running attempts/game than teams like GB, Den, Min, Was and Dal who throw it around a ton and throw it successfully????

I live just outside Chicago. My dad grew up in DC and we are die-hard Redskin fans - thank God. But we root for the Bears, we want to see them do good and nothing pisses me off more in the world of sports than an inept coaching staff. They aren't even giving their players a chance...

 

[freelancc]

i think Rich Gannon and the west coast offense will move the ball easily against the Bear defense. just like Brett Favre did on Monday Night...

Agreed.. the Raider defense is soft.. but i have to imagine they will load up to stop the RUN.. since the bears can not throw the ball at all..:lol: the week before in the second half they adjusted to slow down LaDanian Tomlinson, they will do it again.

Drew Brees was able to stretch the field with his deep passes which made the run possible... Kordell will not be able to.

as long as Kordell is behind center i do not see much hope for the Bears..


good luck

 

[RipIt3]

It doesn't matter who the Bears have at QB, they're offensive line isn't good enough to give anyone a chance to throw it.

Bears suck my butt...

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Re: <--- Pissed Off

Re: <--- Pissed Off

The Bears can run the football. The Bears average 4.9 yards per carry. So, what do they do? Throw dinky-ass passes. Unbelievable. They are averaging 105.3 yards per game on the ground.

@ SF 20 attempts 55 yards 2.2 yds/carry
@ Minny 17 attempts 80 yards 4.7 yds/carry
vs. GB 28 attempts 181 yards 6.5 yds/ carry

They can't sustain drives with the run and that's the problem. Thomas had runs of 34 yds against the Vikes and 60+ against the Pack. It's easy to say that no one's as bad as they looked in their last loss but this team is rotten at the core. NO REDEEMING QUALITIES AT ALL (Well, Edinger's clutch) and their only going to get worse. Hate to take a team as undisciplined as the Raiders, but. . .

already down at -4

 

[RipIt3]

Running backs are like hitters: they need to get in a groove. You hear it all the time, except in football, they call it the "flow of the game." Same thing. You proved my point exactly. 37 carries in the first two games isn't going to get anything done on a team that doesn't throw the ball well. Anthony Thomas had very very few carries in those first two games. You can't expect somebody to step onto a field after coming off an injury and to just be able to see the field, hit the holes and run the ball effectively. Once he started getting some carries under his belt, he began running well and if the Bears would just stick with him, they'd see he could still be a quality running back.

You can't argue with the fact that Oakland has a porous run D. The Bears have to wise up sooner or later and start playing smash mouth football if they are going to give themselves a chance to win a ball game. If they choose to grind it out and stick with it, they will be able to run the ball. If not, they're going to get whallopped.

Good luck this week to you!

 

[RipIt3]

Also...

Even if you take away the 60 yard run, the Bears still averaged 4.5 yards/carry on the ground against GB.

SF run D has been good all year, so for them to hold the Bears to minimal yards can't just be placed on the shoulders of the Chicago Bears, give the 49ers some credit. Minnesota's hasn't been bad either, and the Bears still 4.7 yards/carry. The game in minnesota was nowhere close to a blow-out - meaning the Bears didn't have to air it out to stay in the game. It was 17-13 at the end of the third quarter. If the Bears are running at a 4.7yards/carry clip, why not pound the ball and run down the clock, keeping the Minnesota O off the field? I'll tell you why: The Bears play calling sucks. To only run the ball 17 in that game is a shame. Yes, Thomas broke off a 30 yarder. But there is a reason he was able to have a 30 yard gain. You can't just say it's a fluke. That means he's had runs of 30 and 60 yards this season under limited carries. Give him the ball more. That only makes sense, especially on a team that isn't successful throwing the ball.

That's my point, if you don't agree with it, that's fine - not everybody well. But you can't argue with the fundamentals of running the ball to control the clock when you're playing a team with a decent-good offense and your team can't throw the ball --- that's only multiplied when you're on the road.

 

[ELVIS]

traditionally the raiders do not play well in cold weather. don't know the forecast. they are terrible against the run. they are suspect to the pass. they typically play down to the competition. however, their two losses came to tn and den. 3-1 & 4-0. both were road games against teams they beat twice last year. major revenge factors here. the raiders dismal off production is well known at this point regardless of who they are playing. however, it would be hard for me to take the bears. what do they have ? anthony thomas is no ladanian tomlinson. no disrespect to the a train here. can you possibly bet your hard earned $$ on STEWART? i did not like the mnf game, but i bet on gb. why ? not because of favre, but because of KORDELL. maybe a gamre not to bet. but why bet on a team that you have to sweat their every off possession ? jmo:shrug:

 

[RipIt3]

Elvis-
Completely agree with you. I don't know how anybody could put there money on Chicago either. And I wasn't saying to take Chicago and the points - there will not be a game this season that I will put money on the Chicago Bears because of their offensive and defensive lines and their coaching staff. In all likelihood, Oakland is going to win this game and cover. I was just trying to point out to Chuckdman where the oddsmakers might be coming from. Very seldom are linesmakers way way off on a line. There are times when it happens, but it's not very often. Those are your GOY plays, bet the house. If I was forced to bet on this game, no doubt I put my money on Oakland. But nobody is ever forced and with that in mind, I think we need to pick our spots to play. This one, for me, isn't one of them. I won't gamble on this game. Oddsmakers set the line at 4.5 for a reason and after capping the game myself, I try to look for what that reason may be. If this game is in Oakland, the Raiders are giving up more than a TD. That seems a little more likely. Is Soldier Field worth that many points? Can Oakland stop the run - more importantly - can Oakland keep the Bears from controlling the clock and keeping the score low, cause if the Bears can do that, they could cover this game. Prolly not given their coaching staff and the way they've played thus far. But it's the NFL and anything can happen.

I won't be playing this game this weekend, unless some incredible info comes my way and changes my mind -- not likely. Just wanted to give another perspective to Chuck.

Good luck to all who play it - let's win some money this weekend!

 

[ELVIS]

ripit3, agreed. if anyone knows how $hity the raiders are on D its me. you won't meet a bigger fan or critic. our def rankings are among the lowest in the league run or pass. we really miss sam adams (i hate him) and we also miss tory james. breshnahan def cord is an idiot ! i am not sold on our head coach either. he may suffer from the rams head coach disease. regardless, it is not a good game to bet, but i will place a small wager on oak if the the line drops. 3 is the right # for me . may buy teh 1/2 pt. i do buy the 1/2 whenever it is close to a #.

gl.

 

[RipIt3]

Yeah, the coach you guys got down there has destroyed (from what I can see) what Gruden left. Gruden's awesome. I don't know about Oakland this year. Gannon's too much of a gamer, I feel bad for him. Some of those play calls have been horrendous, not much you can do when they consistently call run on 3rd and long. Reminds me of the Bears.

This could be an ugly game. The rankings I have (rush yards/game and QB Rating...)

Offensive Rush:
Oak: 26
Chi: 15

Defensive Rush:
Oak: 30
Chi: 32

Offensive Pass:
Oak: 17
Chi: 32

Defensive Pass:
Oak: 25
Chi: 31

UUUUUUGGLYLLYYYYYY!

Good luck to you this week!

 

[Kdogg21]

I still like the bears with the +4.5

Bears haven't had a lead yet all season.

 

[Mjolnir]

Bear's

Bear's

I am betting against the bears until i stop winning. They are a HORRIBLE team.

 

[Statman02]

Chicago Bears have covered 11 straight home vs non-conference

 

[Cie]

I'm on the Bears. GL...............

 

[baby johnson]

played the over 42

 

[chuckdman]

Bears...

Bears...

Boys and girls, you need to watch a bears game. They are horrible. They offense is that of a high school team and their defense is nothing to brag about. Anyone putting their money on the Bears will understand that its just a waste of money. I dont care about stats because the bears havent covered anything this year. Last year was all fluke and their record was completely out of line of their play on the field.

Put your money on fire if you want to put it on the bears

ahjoah has the right idea on taking the over... I'm really considering this since both teams have a problem stopping the run.. all DA bears can do is run with Stewart and A-Train.. 3-4 yard passes wont get you a win.

Good luck whichever why you choose. I'm on Oakland.. -4..

 

[J Gates]

the raiders are a sucker bet...people that havent payed alot of attention this year should be the only people bettng the raiders. The raiders are yet to play a good team this year and they are 2-2??? And they could have lost both of them games easily to Cinci and San Diego! This is going to be an ugly game and if the raiders do pull it out it wont be by more then and field goal. Rip it i love ur game plan...good thinking lets hope the bears think the same way and pull this one out!