Last Week: 7-1 on straight bets, 0-1 on middles, 0-2 on parlays, +3.3 units
Overall: 23-20, +2.0 units
Getting started early this week because there are three games that just jump off the page at me.
Miami -2?-115 - Well it's not quite the battle of the unbeatens that many people expected we'd see this week. Now we've got a situation where one of these two teams will drop two in a row. A few reasons for this pick: 1) The Patriots have been chewed up badly the last two weeks by strong RB's. And Ricky Williams is having one helluva nice season. New England will have to get that run defence in order in a REAL hurry to contend with him; 2) Dolphins are looking extremely tough at home; 3) Pats travel schedule could wear on them. Not just back to back roadies, but Boston -> West Coast -> Boston -> South Florida. Second game of 2 in row on the road is tough enough as it is without having to also deal with that; and 4) I believe the Fins pass defence can handle whatever the Patriots throw at them. The pendulum has swung, NE has gone from unrespected to over-respected. -2? is looking pretty small.
Washington +6. The line has dropped everywhere to +5?, so I will wait on this...hoping it gets driven up again on gameday. What have the Titans done to deserve to be laying almost a TD against anyone? The mystique is over. Used to be nobody but the Titans ever won in Tennessee; now visitors regularly come away with victories. Skins off a bye week, and this is the softest opponent they have seen since Week 1. Washington was stifled by good defence in their defeats...but the Titans defence is looking VERY weak. Give me the Skins!!
NY Giants Pick. Ok, the Cowboys fans probably won't like this....but....here's how I see it. Dallas is probably the #1 public team (probably?? ok, they are without question), and their fans bet a hell of a lot on their team when they are going well. Which is great, because that will keep the line on this game bettable from a NYG perspective. I was shocked to see this at Pick...I had it at NYG -3 or -3?. Looking at Dallas' last game....they barely beat a St Louis team that is a shell of it's former self and played horribly, and didn't have Kurt Warner except for a few plays. A team in complete and total disarray. I don't think the Rams could have played worse, and still it was close...in fact, almost a Rams win. The Giants are good. Not great, but good. Good enough to not lose back-to-back games @ Ariz & Dal. Great bounceback spot for the Giants. I think I've detected a pattern with the Cowboys. They play a bad game, and the media in Dallas gets all uptight. They play a good game and get the critics off their backs. And then they go right back to playing lousy football again. They just seem to do enough to turn down the heat, but then revert to their old ways. The Giants won't let this opportunity go by the boards. Giants roll.
More later in the week....
{editted to fix up a couple statements}
Overall: 23-20, +2.0 units
Getting started early this week because there are three games that just jump off the page at me.
Miami -2?-115 - Well it's not quite the battle of the unbeatens that many people expected we'd see this week. Now we've got a situation where one of these two teams will drop two in a row. A few reasons for this pick: 1) The Patriots have been chewed up badly the last two weeks by strong RB's. And Ricky Williams is having one helluva nice season. New England will have to get that run defence in order in a REAL hurry to contend with him; 2) Dolphins are looking extremely tough at home; 3) Pats travel schedule could wear on them. Not just back to back roadies, but Boston -> West Coast -> Boston -> South Florida. Second game of 2 in row on the road is tough enough as it is without having to also deal with that; and 4) I believe the Fins pass defence can handle whatever the Patriots throw at them. The pendulum has swung, NE has gone from unrespected to over-respected. -2? is looking pretty small.
Washington +6. The line has dropped everywhere to +5?, so I will wait on this...hoping it gets driven up again on gameday. What have the Titans done to deserve to be laying almost a TD against anyone? The mystique is over. Used to be nobody but the Titans ever won in Tennessee; now visitors regularly come away with victories. Skins off a bye week, and this is the softest opponent they have seen since Week 1. Washington was stifled by good defence in their defeats...but the Titans defence is looking VERY weak. Give me the Skins!!
NY Giants Pick. Ok, the Cowboys fans probably won't like this....but....here's how I see it. Dallas is probably the #1 public team (probably?? ok, they are without question), and their fans bet a hell of a lot on their team when they are going well. Which is great, because that will keep the line on this game bettable from a NYG perspective. I was shocked to see this at Pick...I had it at NYG -3 or -3?. Looking at Dallas' last game....they barely beat a St Louis team that is a shell of it's former self and played horribly, and didn't have Kurt Warner except for a few plays. A team in complete and total disarray. I don't think the Rams could have played worse, and still it was close...in fact, almost a Rams win. The Giants are good. Not great, but good. Good enough to not lose back-to-back games @ Ariz & Dal. Great bounceback spot for the Giants. I think I've detected a pattern with the Cowboys. They play a bad game, and the media in Dallas gets all uptight. They play a good game and get the critics off their backs. And then they go right back to playing lousy football again. They just seem to do enough to turn down the heat, but then revert to their old ways. The Giants won't let this opportunity go by the boards. Giants roll.
More later in the week....
{editted to fix up a couple statements}
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