Week 5 plays....

[taoist]

...just one early bird special...and it's kind of a homer play.

Memphrica +14 (-120)


Tennessee's first road test of the season and they don't even travel out of the state...and while there will be plenty of Orange in the ole Liberty Bowl on Saturday, I don't see my Memphis Tigers rolling over and playing dead. Tigers almost pulled off the upset last year on ole Rocky Top without DeAngelo Williams (inj'd). I was in attendance last year and Memphis would have won outright with D. Williams on the field. (I won't even mention the other numerous injuries on the Tigers last season and the QB situation....)

This year the game is in Memphis and Tennessee seems to be the team with multiple injuries.... Memphis is back to that wide open spread offense and should exploit Tennessee's secondary...especially without Inky.

Joe Lee is gone and Tommy has taken over the defense, so I expect a better showing than the one put on in the East Carolina game. Let's see how Ainge does outside of the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium.... He's good for at least one interception this week....

Fulmer showed no class last week in scoring that last TD with less than 45 seconds remaining just to cover the spread for the alumni.... That's not likely to happen this week and I don't see Tennessee getting overly motivated to face a 1-2 Memphis team....


Other notes from my scrambled brain....

Tennessee leads the series 19-1 (Yes, Memphis has only beaten Tennessee once in 20 tries.... 21-17 victory in the Liberty Bowl in November of 1996.)

Memphis is 6-1 ATS the last 7 times vs Tennessee...going back to 1992.

TENN are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. C-USA.

Under is 6-2-1 in TENN last 9 games as a favorite.

Memphis is 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Concensus shows over 72% on Tennessee....


I'll be bcak later in the week with some more food for thought.... Best of luck out there, fellas.

 

[blgstocks]

I will probably hop on it with you Toaist, I know you know your Tenn ball

Keep up the good work!

 

[taoist]

...for those that like the trends....

Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Volunteers are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Volunteers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite.
Volunteers are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Volunteers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Volunteers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Volunteers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Volunteers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. C-USA.
Volunteers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Volunteers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Volunteers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.



Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Tigers are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 non-conference games.
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Tigers are 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Tigers are 15-37 ATS in their last 52 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

 

[Irish]

Nice info taoist
I'm laying off with god knows who controlling the defense, If I am not mistaken West is taking over the defense and I am not sure that will be a good thing against the Vols recievers. Then again the defense might step up as a result of it. Best of luck this weekend.

Cheers
Irish

 

[taoist]

...two weeks to prepare and Tommy was a DC in his prior life. The secondary will be okay. I expect a lot of zone and some zone blitzes...just can't see him playing that mano y mano, crazy shiat that Joe Lee tended to favor...no matter what his personel happend to be.

Tenn could get a few big plays, but I expect Memphis plays this one like a bowl game.... 10 years since the last upset.... Maybe a pizza money play on the ML??? :scared :shrug: :scared :com:

 

[buddy]

Taoist,

you have mail.

 

[taoist]

...thanks. I got it. I'm going out of town for a seminar in the mountains on Thurs and Friday, so my computer access will be limited. I'll drop you a response before I leave. (Still have some work to do...)


...and I don't want anyone to get the wrong impression. I'm not billing this game as a GOY or GOM or whatever.... I played this one the same way I do almost all others.... :SIB


Always bet within your means, fellas. (It's not a round ball, which makes it bounce funny every single week...)

 

[fla]

I still owe you a hat!

I was thinking blue with the Gator logo in the front, or white.... hell maybe even orange.

:mj07:

Let me know. Good luck.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this weekend bud

 

[Joe De]

memfrica waits in the dark every time they have tennessee schedule. take off the gloves in a bare fisted fight and memfrica covers again(might win outright they are overdue for an upset). throw away all stats on this game.

take the points down to +3

 

[pt1gard]

gl tao,

any bet vs PF in the last few years seems like a good % wager

 

[taoist]

Thanks fellas....


fla, I'll get back to you on the lid. I might add a lizard lid to the collection...at least I'd always remember from whence it came. :com:


I'm just about to hit the road and will be away from net for a couple of days while I sit through 2 days of boring legal seminars, but I wanted to post this one for Friday night before I left.... I should be back late Friday or Saturday morning with a few more....

Friday Night - So. Florida +4'


...also, while I didn't play them, I lean to both So. Carolina +14' and BYU +5' (Methinks it's finally the week that the doggies bark a little on these weeknight games....) :shrug:


...have a good week and I'll see you guys Friday night or Sat. morning. Best of luck and may the football gods smile on your card. :SIB

 

[wcb4]

love the so fla play tao....

i'm seeing some eye popping #'s at one of the consensus sites on this one. out of about 1000 "plays", 829 are on rutgers! talk about a public road fav. those #'s alone warrant a play on the home dog in my book. i'll be on the ml as well. gl this week.

 

[taoist]

Quickly....

Played these....

Michigan -9
N. Ill -6
Col +16
Va Tech -9'
Kan St. -1
Cent Mich +10
La Tech +34
Wash St +17
Ole Piss +18'

...and a small play on Memphrica ML +480 :scared


edit: forgot one - Duke +5 and ML +180 :com:

edit2: line change - got cent mich +10

...might add more later.

Sorry for the late post.... Best of luck out there, fellas. :SIB

 

[taoist]

...one more....

Tex Tech ML +130 :shrug:

 

[Ronnie]

Good Luck Chad! Liking some Memphrica as well

 

[thebsmanofkent]

GL on that monster card T.....:SIB