Ready for some mo "Plick n Play Action" for this week? Not so sure if I am after last week's PLICKS .
The good news is that there's now enough data from 4 weeks of games and that means the figures I get should be more valid than they were in the earlier weeks. The bad news is that the "confidence no." is not so strong for this week's games.
One more thing.... How cum so many favorites? Answer is that I keep records and for the past 3 seasons my win (cover) percentage is well OVER 50% on plicks that were favored (giving pts.). Last year I started a new method of capping games. That is, I ONLY LOOKED FOR the plays that predicted that the FAVORITE would probably cover. It worked pretty good too. My doggie plicks percentage for the past 3 seasons was pretty dang bad. BUT, I notice that my barking dogs plays WON OUTRIGHT often enough to result in at least breaking even or better if I just played my DOGS bets as Money Liners.
So here's what I came up with for this week after hours of number crunching AND based on teams I got to watch play this season. BTW, I DIDN'T see all of the listed teams play:
Boston College is this week's Bestest: : they opened at -8 1/2, I got them at -9, and as I write this they're at -9 1/2.
Penn St. -18
Georgia -8
Ohio -5
Cal. +15 1/2 : Not a mistake here, sometimes the nos. come out VERY strongly negative when I'm assessing the chances of a favorite covering and, when this happens, I take a close look into what is going on. In years gone by, the Bears had little or no chance at beating the Ducks or even covering the spread. Cal. is definitely on the improve while the Quackers are declining IMO. This trend started last year when they beatem OUTRIGHT and this year Cal. is looking much better than last year, especially with respect to the drafts and improvements to their defense. They played no. 5, USC, and gave them a battle that isn't reflective in the final score, losing by 10 pts. In that game, their passing yardage AND total yardage beat USC, 416 to 356 and 303 to 223 respectively. Charlie Nelson, Oregon's leading receiver, has an ankle problem and I think that just adds another significant factor.
Money Liner doggie?
Well, for this week, I got Kent St. +250. I especially like it when the M.L doggie play is between two stink bombs and the nos. point to the home team which isn't even a factor that is used in the calculation.
Ok "blah, blah, blah"... . and Good Luck today.
The good news is that there's now enough data from 4 weeks of games and that means the figures I get should be more valid than they were in the earlier weeks. The bad news is that the "confidence no." is not so strong for this week's games.
One more thing.... How cum so many favorites? Answer is that I keep records and for the past 3 seasons my win (cover) percentage is well OVER 50% on plicks that were favored (giving pts.). Last year I started a new method of capping games. That is, I ONLY LOOKED FOR the plays that predicted that the FAVORITE would probably cover. It worked pretty good too. My doggie plicks percentage for the past 3 seasons was pretty dang bad. BUT, I notice that my barking dogs plays WON OUTRIGHT often enough to result in at least breaking even or better if I just played my DOGS bets as Money Liners.
So here's what I came up with for this week after hours of number crunching AND based on teams I got to watch play this season. BTW, I DIDN'T see all of the listed teams play:
Boston College is this week's Bestest: : they opened at -8 1/2, I got them at -9, and as I write this they're at -9 1/2.
Penn St. -18
Georgia -8
Ohio -5
Cal. +15 1/2 : Not a mistake here
, sometimes the nos. come out VERY strongly negative when I'm assessing the chances of a favorite covering and, when this happens, I take a close look into what is going on. In years gone by, the Bears had little or no chance at beating the Ducks or even covering the spread. Cal. is definitely on the improve while the Quackers are declining IMO. This trend started last year when they beatem OUTRIGHT and this year Cal. is looking much better than last year, especially with respect to the drafts and improvements to their defense. They played no. 5, USC, and gave them a battle that isn't reflective in the final score, losing by 10 pts. In that game, their passing yardage AND total yardage beat USC, 416 to 356 and 303 to 223 respectively. Charlie Nelson, Oregon's leading receiver, has an ankle problem and I think that just adds another significant factor.Money Liner doggie?
Well, for this week, I got Kent St. +250. I especially like it when the M.L doggie play is between two stink bombs and the nos. point to the home team which isn't even a factor that is used in the calculation.
Ok "blah, blah, blah"... . and Good Luck today.
