Week 5 R/L plays

[McVegas]

Monday: OAK.....Wednesday: COL, NYM, ANA, BAL.....Friday: ARZ, MIL, PHL, CLV and MIN.....record at 50 wins....Game 1: 26 wins...Game 2: 11 wins....Game 3: 7 wins....Game 4: 4 wins....Game 5: 1 win.....Game 6: 1 win.......

 

[LordofBalls]

mcvegas,

couple ways to look at those #'s...

1) If you took it out 4 bets then stopped and called it a loss...
You'd win 48 units on the wins
You'd lose 35 units on the 2 losses (about 17 ea.)

2) If you didn't start playing until the 3rd game...
You'd be ahead 13 units... and you would've had to play bet 3 one time, bet 4 one time...

seems like a winner w/less stress one way than the other...


FYI, I'm tracking the road runline situations.... bk w/more info later


Let's keep em comin!

BoL~LoB :SIB

 

[McVegas]

Keep me posted on those road run line stats.....with the r/l's being a +$$ most of the time, the 26 game one winners net a profit of more than one unit per winner...I usually double up the risk amount for game 2...after that, I play to get back my loss and turn a profit of one unit...sometimes I just let it go, sometimes I reduce the amount.......just looking to make a few $$, not making a living here. For what its worth, I start with small bets and go from there.....good luck.

 

[doogieboy]

I have Cle for Fri also.
Thanks for all you guys do. I keep up with this myself but it hepls to confirm I am not missing anything.
GL this week

 

[McVegas]

You are right...I missed CLV...thanks. I edited the original post to show CLV on Friday....

 

[LordofBalls]

road runline results so far....

road runline results so far....

McVegas,
okay... just fyi...

2009 Road Tms r/l -- 6gm or longer
Bet 1 == 13 wins
Bet 2 == 12 wins
Bet 3 == 9 wins
Bet 4 == 2
Bet 5 == 3
Bet 6 == 1
Bet 7 == 1
Clev went 0/6
SD went 0/7

fyi, SD is by far the worst tm for home runline over the prev 3 seasons... when playing 8gm or more homestands...
stat: if u took the road tm @ SD +1.5 in gm 1... you'd be 7-1 (+ 1 more win this yr, so 8-1)

Maybe there's some way to play against road teams based on these stats?
I havt tried to break it down any further yet... don't see anything there, will keep tracking it...

gotta run...... cya!

:toast:
BoL~LoB

 

[McVegas]

Thanks for the stats....will look into it, might be able to come up with a few plays here and there.

 

[T OFF]

BUMP

BUMP

:SIB

 

[LordofBalls]

of the tms starting the XL homestands today...

over the previous 3 seasons... on homestands of 8 gms or longer...

Angels (2-3-2-2) cov rl on gm 1 twice, gm 2 thrice, gm 3 twice, etc
Mets (4-2-4-0-0-1)

*Angels are +1.5 @home tonite vs Halladay, truly a great pitcher, but slightly less so vs the Angels punch n judy type hitters... stat wise anyway... 6-5 record overall

*these 2 tms havt fared quite as well...

Col (4-2-1-0-1-1)
Balt (4-2-2-1-1)

Tm currently in progress...
A's (5-1-5-0-0-0-1)


FYI......... r/line INFO... winning by 2 runs or more..

only 3 tms that have covered rl (-1.5) in 1st 3 gms of a long (8 gms or more) everytime in last 3 yrs
Rsox (7-1-2)
Cubs (5-2-1)
KC (3-4-3)

4 tms that hav covered runline (-1.5) w/in 1st 4 gms of series
Atl (6-2-2-1)
Yanks (4-3-1-4)
Cinn (3-3-2-1)
Angels (2-3-2-2)

these DO NOT include '09 season....

still a few surprises amongst the group I think...

BoL ~ LoB

 

[McVegas]

Going against road trip teams with R/L...not that good (more than a few teams strung out over 4, 5, 6 or more bets...$uicide).....however, going against these teams on the $$ line...30 teams so far this year (I threw out the teams that coincided directly with the home team r/l plays) Game 1: 18 wins...Game 2: 7 wins...Game 3: 4 wins......2 losses (Fla, when they started the season on fire, and TEX, which is on a trip right now and has started with 3 straight wins)...unless I screwed up, it looks like no teams (other than FLA and TEX) on a roadtrip of 6 or more games has started the trip with 3 straight wins....I don't know...chase against road team from game 1 or wait until a team starts a trip with 2 straight wins and then chase against?? Not sure if either is worth the risk.....

 

[McVegas]

Dug a little deeper into this...Teams on a 6 or more game road trip, if they win the first two games....go against them in game 3....9-2 record on $$ line and 7-4 record on r/l.....ATL and TB are on road trips and have won first two, ATL at PHL (Phl is a home team r/l play already) and TB at BOS....take BOS. R/L plays for today: ARZ, MIL, PHL, MIN, and CLV. I still have BAL pending because their 4-1 win over MIN was a rain shortened game and the books always cancel the r/l plays when that happens. Good luck to all.

 

[LordofBalls]

good stuff man....

was playing them anyway, now adding a bit

BoL~LoB

 

[McVegas]

Hope you loaded up on PHL.......:mj06:

 

[McVegas]

Teams on a 6 or more game road trip, if they win the first two games....go against them in game 3....9-2 record on $$ line and 7-4 record on r/l.......................................................... update: now at 12-2 on $$ line and 9-5 on r/l.....