Recap of Week 4:
In a word: Brutal. There were a ton of plays last week...and combined they went 13-20-3, with 1 no play. Jacksonville was the big play, and it lost (accounting for 6 systems losses (ouch!!) ). The Week 4 thread has been updated to show wins in green, losses in red, pushes in blue, and no-plays in gray. Take out conflicting systems and they went 11-17-3. If you consider one Philadelphia play to only negate one Chicago play, they went 11-18-3. Bad any way you want to cut it.
At this point it's up to you. You can go with them with the expectation that they will get hot... or consider yourself lucky you've found a bunch of systems that are performing so poorly and fade them like crazy! Hey, I don't care. Even I don't bet them all. Their best period last year was from about Week 5 to Week 12...but anything can happen.
Onward to Week 5:
This week's Big Play: There isn't one
There are 26 plays in total this week, yet no team comes up more than twice. There are also a lot of "if's" in here...lines that need to stay where they are, or need to move a half a point or so to become plays. In addition there are a LOT of conflicts between the systems...see the bottom of this post. All in all it's quite a mess, but I may as well post it all anyways, just in case you happen to have certain systems that you prefer over others. Live it up.
System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90). (2-3, 40% in '04)
Play on: San Diego
System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89). (1-0 in '04)
Play on: New England, NY Jets
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89). (0-2 in '04)
Play on: Dallas
System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (42-28-1, 60% since '98). (1-0 in '04) **updated**
Play on: NY Giants, St Louis
System #10 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games SU as a dog (40-22-1, 64.5% since '89). (0-1 in '04)
Play on: Houston
System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62.7% since 1983). (1-2-1, 33% in '04)
Play on: San Diego (if line hits +3, and total stays at or below 37)
System #17 - (Very rare, only applies to week 4 or 5) - Play against a team if they scored 24 or more points in each of their first three games, and are now favored by 7 points or more in their fourth game. (20-3-1 since '73, 14-0-1 when the underdog is not winless SU, 12-1-1 in non-division games, 15-2-1 when the line is -8 or more) (0-1 in '04) **updated**
Play on: Miami
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). (7-4, 63.6% in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: Oak/Indy, NYG/Dal, StL/Sea, Tenn/GB
System #19 - Play the Under when the home team is favored by 3 or less, and had a bye last week (15-1, 93.8% Unders since '98). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: NYG/Dal (if line drops to -3)
System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (41-27-1, 60.3% since '98). (1-0 in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: NYG/Dal
System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (77-45-1 ATS, 63.1% since '92). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play on: San Francisco (if they become the dog)
System #22 - Play on a home underdog that is winless for the season (minimum 3 losses). (42-21 ATS, 66.7%). (1-2-1, 33% in '04) **updated**
Play on: San Francisco (if they become the dog)
System #31 - Play on home dogs of 7 pts or less who allow 4.5 yds/play or less. (14-5-1 ATS, 73.6% since '92). (1-4, 20% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Washington (4.5) (if they are the dog)
System #34 - Play on a home dog, if they lost SU as a road favorite last week (16-4-2, 80% since '98). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play on: Washington (if they are the dog)
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games. (1-1, 50% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Miami
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games. (0-1 in '04) **updated**
Play on: Oakland (Indy = 100)
System #37 - Play on a road team that has a bye the following week (19-8-1, 70.4% since '02). (7-1, 87.5% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Baltimore, NY Giants, Arizona
System #38 - Play on a moneyline home favorite coming off a bye when they are favored by 7 or more, and the total is 42? or more (13-0 SU, 100% since '98. 7-6 ATS). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play on: Seattle moneyline
System #39 - Play the Over when the home team is coming off a bye, is favored by 7 or more, and the total is 42? or more (11-2 Over, 84.6% since '98). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play the OVER on: StL/Sea
============================
Systems in conflict:
? One system is on New England, two are on Miami
? One system is on Dallas, two on NY Giants
? One system is on St Louis, one is on Seattle ML.
? Up to 2 systems are on San Fran, one is on Arizona
? Up to 2 systems are on Washington, one is on Baltimore
Good luck figuring all this out! Haha!
GM
In a word: Brutal. There were a ton of plays last week...and combined they went 13-20-3, with 1 no play. Jacksonville was the big play, and it lost (accounting for 6 systems losses (ouch!!) ). The Week 4 thread has been updated to show wins in green, losses in red, pushes in blue, and no-plays in gray. Take out conflicting systems and they went 11-17-3. If you consider one Philadelphia play to only negate one Chicago play, they went 11-18-3. Bad any way you want to cut it.
At this point it's up to you. You can go with them with the expectation that they will get hot... or consider yourself lucky you've found a bunch of systems that are performing so poorly and fade them like crazy! Hey, I don't care. Even I don't bet them all. Their best period last year was from about Week 5 to Week 12...but anything can happen.
Onward to Week 5:
This week's Big Play: There isn't one
There are 26 plays in total this week, yet no team comes up more than twice. There are also a lot of "if's" in here...lines that need to stay where they are, or need to move a half a point or so to become plays. In addition there are a LOT of conflicts between the systems...see the bottom of this post. All in all it's quite a mess, but I may as well post it all anyways, just in case you happen to have certain systems that you prefer over others. Live it up.
System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90). (2-3, 40% in '04)
Play on: San Diego
System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89). (1-0 in '04)
Play on: New England, NY Jets
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89). (0-2 in '04)
Play on: Dallas
System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (42-28-1, 60% since '98). (1-0 in '04) **updated**
Play on: NY Giants, St Louis
System #10 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games SU as a dog (40-22-1, 64.5% since '89). (0-1 in '04)
Play on: Houston
System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62.7% since 1983). (1-2-1, 33% in '04)
Play on: San Diego (if line hits +3, and total stays at or below 37)
System #17 - (Very rare, only applies to week 4 or 5) - Play against a team if they scored 24 or more points in each of their first three games, and are now favored by 7 points or more in their fourth game. (20-3-1 since '73, 14-0-1 when the underdog is not winless SU, 12-1-1 in non-division games, 15-2-1 when the line is -8 or more) (0-1 in '04) **updated**
Play on: Miami
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). (7-4, 63.6% in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: Oak/Indy, NYG/Dal, StL/Sea, Tenn/GB
System #19 - Play the Under when the home team is favored by 3 or less, and had a bye last week (15-1, 93.8% Unders since '98). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: NYG/Dal (if line drops to -3)
System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (41-27-1, 60.3% since '98). (1-0 in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: NYG/Dal
System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (77-45-1 ATS, 63.1% since '92). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play on: San Francisco (if they become the dog)
System #22 - Play on a home underdog that is winless for the season (minimum 3 losses). (42-21 ATS, 66.7%). (1-2-1, 33% in '04) **updated**
Play on: San Francisco (if they become the dog)
System #31 - Play on home dogs of 7 pts or less who allow 4.5 yds/play or less. (14-5-1 ATS, 73.6% since '92). (1-4, 20% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Washington (4.5) (if they are the dog)
System #34 - Play on a home dog, if they lost SU as a road favorite last week (16-4-2, 80% since '98). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play on: Washington (if they are the dog)
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games. (1-1, 50% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Miami
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games. (0-1 in '04) **updated**
Play on: Oakland (Indy = 100)
System #37 - Play on a road team that has a bye the following week (19-8-1, 70.4% since '02). (7-1, 87.5% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Baltimore, NY Giants, Arizona
System #38 - Play on a moneyline home favorite coming off a bye when they are favored by 7 or more, and the total is 42? or more (13-0 SU, 100% since '98. 7-6 ATS). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play on: Seattle moneyline
System #39 - Play the Over when the home team is coming off a bye, is favored by 7 or more, and the total is 42? or more (11-2 Over, 84.6% since '98). (no plays in '04) **updated**
Play the OVER on: StL/Sea
============================
Systems in conflict:
? One system is on New England, two are on Miami
? One system is on Dallas, two on NY Giants
? One system is on St Louis, one is on Seattle ML.
? Up to 2 systems are on San Fran, one is on Arizona
? Up to 2 systems are on Washington, one is on Baltimore
Good luck figuring all this out! Haha!
GM
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