5-4 last week (too many games for me!)...
13-8 all up.
Carolina @ NO under 45
League: 1-11 under (Av. total 46.0...av. score 37.8) away dog, total 42.5+, off a 10+ SU loss as a home fav, if they had <26 mins TOP. [Caro]
(0-2 under 2006. Det 9-17 GB @ 45; Pits 23-17 Cinci @ 44)
0-7 under (Av. total 46.4...av. score 36.3) if last game was 10+ under.
ok. SO who knows who the 3rd lowest scoring team in the NFL currently is? Your New Orleans Saints @ 12.7 ppg!
Of course their defense has been non-existant, but last week showed us what a Carr lead Carolina can achieve...not much! They didn't get inside the 40 until midway thru the last quarter!
This looks like it will be a crucial game for either team's chances this season, so expecting the emphasis to be on defense with some conservative, ball control play calling.
Washngton -3 (1.80)
League: 5-13...1-16-1 @ this no...av. loss 14.0!) away dog, total 42.5+, off a 10+ ats win as home dog, if last game went over. [Det]
...and 5-11-1 (1-14-2 this no...av. loss 12.0) if total 40.5+ and the last game was inside the Div.
0-8 this no...av. loss 14.1) if total 42.5+
Big let down game here for Detroit off a big Div win...and the result wasn't as 'good' as it looks, as they returned an onside kick for a TD with 45 seconds to play.
Kitna has been very good, but now faced the 2nd best pass D in the NFL, allowing just 5.8 y/pass.
Washington have struggled to put points on the board, but this Det D will be juts what they need to get going.
New England v. Cleveland over 48
League: 20-3 over (Av. total 43.5...a.v score 54.4) home 10+ fav off a 10+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [NE]
10-0 over (Av. total 41.3...av. score 54.6) if they had 34+ mins TOP
Not much to this one really that we don't already know. NE can flat out score!! Now they face the Browns who have the 2nd worst total D in the NFL! The Pats could easily top 40 on their own here!
After Anderson hs taken over, Cleveland have scored 51, 24 and 27...admittedly all against reasonably poor D's, but they relistically should only need 14/17 to get this one over.
10 teams have been in this situation since 1997, and 9 of them have scored 21 or more...so a score of about 35-21 looks about right to me
Miami +5.5
League: 19-3-2 (Av. WIN 2.0) away dog, off a 21+ ats los as a home 3+ fav, if they had <26 mins TOP. [Mia]
12-1 (Av. WIN 4.6) if total is 40.5+.
(1-0 2006. Pits 23-17 Cinci @ +6)
Will give this Miami team one more chance! They do move the ball well, but turn overs have been absolutely killing them...as indicated by not having enough of the ball last week!
This appears to be a good bounce back spot tho, against a poor defense...and an offense still without it's 2 leading RB's, their leading WR and starting C.
If Miami can protect the ball they should be able to score enough to stay right in this game...and if they let Ron Dayne run for 150+ then I deserve to lose every bit as badly as they do!!
Not sure Miami will win, but anything over 4 looks a lot to me.
Seattle @ Pittsburgh under 40
League: 5-18 under (Av. total 39.7...av. score 32.9) away dog, off a 14+ ats win as away fav. [Seattle]
(1-10 under (Av. total 40.4...av. score 31.3) if both games last went under)
(1-9 under (Av. total 39.2...av. score 26.7!) away, if opp is off an upset SU loss)
(0-8 under (av. toal 40.1...av. score 25.9!!) if they are dogs.)
The Steelers have the no. 2 overall D in the NFL, and lost last week mainly due to a 73 yard punt return TD. They are still the same old Steelers, despite the pre-season indication they would throw the ball more, they are running over 55% of the time. Surprisingly, Seattle are also running 30 times a game, to only 32 passes so far.
2 run first offenses with solid D's = an under at a good number for me.
Chicago +3.5 (ML @ 2.60+)
League: 13-2 (Av. WIN 1.7) away dog, off a 10+ ats loss as away fav, with 30+ mins TOP [Chic]
(1-0 2007. Cinci 21-24 Seattle @ +3.5. 1-0 2006. SL 16-14 Zona @ +4.5)
7-0 SU (Av. WIN 7.0!) if opp is off any ats win.
Just about last chance for the Bears already! This is a massive game for them.
As already mentioned, the late Det TD made things look worse than they were...they still had the ball for the majority of the game and racked up over 350 yards.
It's hard to fault GB so far, but sooner or later their complete lack of a ground game will start to hurt them...they are also allowing 4.5 y/rush, so Chicago should be able to get a ground game going to take the pressure off whichever QB happens to step onto the field!! (Orton's turn yet? :mj07: )
Chicago have won the last 3 at GB since 2004, and I really don't think they shuold be getting more than a FG here...also a BIG chance to win the game SU at good odds, imo.
Good Luck all
13-8 all up.
Carolina @ NO under 45
League: 1-11 under (Av. total 46.0...av. score 37.8) away dog, total 42.5+, off a 10+ SU loss as a home fav, if they had <26 mins TOP. [Caro]
(0-2 under 2006. Det 9-17 GB @ 45; Pits 23-17 Cinci @ 44)
0-7 under (Av. total 46.4...av. score 36.3) if last game was 10+ under.
ok. SO who knows who the 3rd lowest scoring team in the NFL currently is? Your New Orleans Saints @ 12.7 ppg!
Of course their defense has been non-existant, but last week showed us what a Carr lead Carolina can achieve...not much! They didn't get inside the 40 until midway thru the last quarter!
This looks like it will be a crucial game for either team's chances this season, so expecting the emphasis to be on defense with some conservative, ball control play calling.
Washngton -3 (1.80)
League: 5-13...1-16-1 @ this no...av. loss 14.0!) away dog, total 42.5+, off a 10+ ats win as home dog, if last game went over. [Det]
...and 5-11-1 (1-14-2 this no...av. loss 12.0) if total 40.5+ and the last game was inside the Div.
0-8 this no...av. loss 14.1) if total 42.5+
Big let down game here for Detroit off a big Div win...and the result wasn't as 'good' as it looks, as they returned an onside kick for a TD with 45 seconds to play.
Kitna has been very good, but now faced the 2nd best pass D in the NFL, allowing just 5.8 y/pass.
Washington have struggled to put points on the board, but this Det D will be juts what they need to get going.
New England v. Cleveland over 48
League: 20-3 over (Av. total 43.5...a.v score 54.4) home 10+ fav off a 10+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [NE]
10-0 over (Av. total 41.3...av. score 54.6) if they had 34+ mins TOP
Not much to this one really that we don't already know. NE can flat out score!! Now they face the Browns who have the 2nd worst total D in the NFL! The Pats could easily top 40 on their own here!
After Anderson hs taken over, Cleveland have scored 51, 24 and 27...admittedly all against reasonably poor D's, but they relistically should only need 14/17 to get this one over.
10 teams have been in this situation since 1997, and 9 of them have scored 21 or more...so a score of about 35-21 looks about right to me
Miami +5.5
League: 19-3-2 (Av. WIN 2.0) away dog, off a 21+ ats los as a home 3+ fav, if they had <26 mins TOP. [Mia]
12-1 (Av. WIN 4.6) if total is 40.5+.
(1-0 2006. Pits 23-17 Cinci @ +6)
Will give this Miami team one more chance! They do move the ball well, but turn overs have been absolutely killing them...as indicated by not having enough of the ball last week!
This appears to be a good bounce back spot tho, against a poor defense...and an offense still without it's 2 leading RB's, their leading WR and starting C.
If Miami can protect the ball they should be able to score enough to stay right in this game...and if they let Ron Dayne run for 150+ then I deserve to lose every bit as badly as they do!!
Not sure Miami will win, but anything over 4 looks a lot to me.
Seattle @ Pittsburgh under 40
League: 5-18 under (Av. total 39.7...av. score 32.9) away dog, off a 14+ ats win as away fav. [Seattle]
(1-10 under (Av. total 40.4...av. score 31.3) if both games last went under)
(1-9 under (Av. total 39.2...av. score 26.7!) away, if opp is off an upset SU loss)
(0-8 under (av. toal 40.1...av. score 25.9!!) if they are dogs.)
The Steelers have the no. 2 overall D in the NFL, and lost last week mainly due to a 73 yard punt return TD. They are still the same old Steelers, despite the pre-season indication they would throw the ball more, they are running over 55% of the time. Surprisingly, Seattle are also running 30 times a game, to only 32 passes so far.
2 run first offenses with solid D's = an under at a good number for me.
Chicago +3.5 (ML @ 2.60+)
League: 13-2 (Av. WIN 1.7) away dog, off a 10+ ats loss as away fav, with 30+ mins TOP [Chic]
(1-0 2007. Cinci 21-24 Seattle @ +3.5. 1-0 2006. SL 16-14 Zona @ +4.5)
7-0 SU (Av. WIN 7.0!) if opp is off any ats win.
Just about last chance for the Bears already! This is a massive game for them.
As already mentioned, the late Det TD made things look worse than they were...they still had the ball for the majority of the game and racked up over 350 yards.
It's hard to fault GB so far, but sooner or later their complete lack of a ground game will start to hurt them...they are also allowing 4.5 y/rush, so Chicago should be able to get a ground game going to take the pressure off whichever QB happens to step onto the field!! (Orton's turn yet? :mj07: )
Chicago have won the last 3 at GB since 2004, and I really don't think they shuold be getting more than a FG here...also a BIG chance to win the game SU at good odds, imo.
Good Luck all
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