Posting this for MJers that like the early lines and get their plays in well before game day. I know the "experts" believe this is stupid, that is, ya gotta see how the line moves before betting. I'm not so sure about that. My records over several seasons show that I woulda been better off putting in my plays right after the lines went up. One other reason is the LUCK I had with hoss wacin today (actually Tues.) and I got a feeling there was so much of it that it may spillover to footsball. I knew I was in for a good day at the wace twack (online) when in the very first race of the day my stinkin $14 worth of 0.50 CENT trifecta tickets, one of which resulted in a $317 payoff and that was on 50 cents. WOW! And the rest of the day pretty much followed suit, but nothing like the first race. (I usually only play about 4 of the races, NEVER play all the races. :nono: )
Whatever the case is - I got all the stats I need to start the task of doing the no. crunching stuff. Before I post the "early bird" plays and ESP. before anybody thinks of playing along with any of them, I gotta mention a little about what's going on here...
The figures I come up with represents about 75% of how a team becomes a play. The other 25% is important.
F'rinstance:
Week 5 was outstanding and may lead peoples to think that math formulas that took a long time for me to come up with will work 90+%. Forget 90%. IMO, there ain't no (double negative, yikes?) such thing as an assurance that you're gonna be a weaner by just using a calculator or puter.
If I posted ALL the plicks that the cruncher came up with - it wouldn't have come close to the nice results as the teams I posted here. Using the puter's answer to "whose gonna cover this week" for week 5 was 13/9 which is right at about the 60% mark.
What's the other 25% I use? I'm not gonna bore you any more here but, it's mostly my own opinion about the two teams matchup, injuries, QB ratings, and a lot about what I think of each individual team. Watching a lot of the games really helps too.
Ok, nuff of that... I'm about halfway through capping for this week and these plays DON"T COUNT here cause I gotta finish all the games I selected to check out. BTW, there's no way I'm going to go through the calculations for EVERY stinkin game on Saturdays, enough is enough :mj13:. I do select about half of them or a bit more to do the figures on and then check further before actually putting any in.
Ohio -12 vs. Cent. Mich: The puter must hate the Chippewas cause last week's Bestest (BC) was against them. Can't make this one a Best play yet, but the rating was so strong for this team this week that I will be on them without checking further. The play is mostly about the weakness of CM.
Penn St. -14 vs Northwestern: I liked what I've seen from PSt too. Think this one will go in a 2 or 3 team parlay and that means I take it down to -13
Mid. Tenn. ST. -10: Not too excited about this puter plick, may not be posted OR PLAYED. One thing about this play though - I have 3 lists that I refer to sometimes, each one has a few teams in it, (1) IF UNDECIDED, PLAYEM, (2) IF UNDECIDED, fadem, and (3) IF UNDECIDED, DON'T PLAY THE GAME THEY'RE IN! In this case, it's no. 2 asfaras FIU goes.
I'll post the "official MJ forum plicks" in this thread.
Whatever the case is - I got all the stats I need to start the task of doing the no. crunching stuff. Before I post the "early bird" plays and ESP. before anybody thinks of playing along with any of them, I gotta mention a little about what's going on here...
The figures I come up with represents about 75% of how a team becomes a play. The other 25% is important.
F'rinstance:
Week 5 was outstanding and may lead peoples to think that math formulas that took a long time for me to come up with will work 90+%. Forget 90%. IMO, there ain't no (double negative, yikes?) such thing as an assurance that you're gonna be a weaner by just using a calculator or puter.
If I posted ALL the plicks that the cruncher came up with - it wouldn't have come close to the nice results as the teams I posted here. Using the puter's answer to "whose gonna cover this week" for week 5 was 13/9 which is right at about the 60% mark.
What's the other 25% I use? I'm not gonna bore you any more here but, it's mostly my own opinion about the two teams matchup, injuries, QB ratings, and a lot about what I think of each individual team. Watching a lot of the games really helps too.
Ok, nuff of that... I'm about halfway through capping for this week and these plays DON"T COUNT here cause I gotta finish all the games I selected to check out. BTW, there's no way I'm going to go through the calculations for EVERY stinkin game on Saturdays, enough is enough :mj13:. I do select about half of them or a bit more to do the figures on and then check further before actually putting any in.
Ohio -12 vs. Cent. Mich: The puter must hate the Chippewas cause last week's Bestest (BC) was against them. Can't make this one a Best play yet, but the rating was so strong for this team this week that I will be on them without checking further. The play is mostly about the weakness of CM.
Penn St. -14 vs Northwestern: I liked what I've seen from PSt too. Think this one will go in a 2 or 3 team parlay and that means I take it down to -13
Mid. Tenn. ST. -10: Not too excited about this puter plick, may not be posted OR PLAYED. One thing about this play though - I have 3 lists that I refer to sometimes, each one has a few teams in it, (1) IF UNDECIDED, PLAYEM, (2) IF UNDECIDED, fadem, and (3) IF UNDECIDED, DON'T PLAY THE GAME THEY'RE IN! In this case, it's no. 2 asfaras FIU goes.
I'll post the "official MJ forum plicks" in this thread.
