Found this to be a great "read"
by Vinnie Iyer
It's really a tradition unlike any other, because it's one that I would really like to stop sometime soon. Week 5 marked my first sub-.500 weekly record of the season, which means this week, to ensure I'm at least half right, I'm offering up two picks for every game.
Every week I feel confident about my picks on paper, until the "little things" like playing, coaching and officiating get in the way. As we know by now, every team has a potential path to victory in every game. So consider this outlining both paths, with the second path being my pick of record.
The Patriots' season path hit a roadblock with the loss of Tom Brady, and the Chargers have gone primrose to potholes in a hurry. That's the perfect enigmatic matchup to be the ...
AFC Game of the Week
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers. Raise your hand if you thought both of these AFC championship game finalists would have each lost to the Dolphins, helping Miami already double its win total from last season. OK, you can put your hand down, Ronnie Brown.
Injuries have been major factors for both teams. The Patriots have needed to get creative to get wins without Brady, and the Chargers, who had the big blow of losing Shawne Merriman on defense, have consistently battled nicks to their key offensive players.
The Chargers, when healthy, remain the NFL's most talented team. They have dynamic playmakers -- LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Cromartie -- and never are out of games with their capacity to score in any each way. The problem is, they are having trouble sustaining solid play on either offense or defense. When they get enough of one, they don't get enough of the other.
If they play up to their talents at home on Sunday night, however, they should have no trouble dispatching the Pats, a team with an aging defense and a backup QB prone to interceptions. Your score: Chargers 34, Patriots 17.
But wait, there is a reason the Patriots are still looking good at 3-1 and the Chargers are at 2-3. It comes down to coaching in New England, getting a consistent effort to use the team's strengths against the opponents' weaknesses. It was evident Bill Belichick's staff made the right adjustments on both sides of the ball post-bye, and the Patriots will be better prepared to win this tough Brady-less test. Patriots 23, Chargers 20.
NFC Game of the Week
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Suddenly, the NFC South is trying to challenge the NFC East for the league's toughest division. The preseason favorite Saints are 2-3, good for last place. The 3-2 Buccaneers won the South last season, but the 4-1 Panthers look like they are ready to take control at the top.
The Panthers have done it with a little bit of everything: good run defense, great pass defense, strong running game and an efficient passing game. They have been outstanding in executing their game plan every week, and it's all coming together like in 2003, when Jake Delhomme and John Fox led them to the Super Bowl.
With the Bucs sorting out their banged-up aging quarterbacks and having limited threats in the passing game, the Panthers should be able to keep Tampa from keeping drives alive. Offensively, if they can control the point of attack and keep springing DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, they should win, 17-13.
But wait, the Bucs play solid defense, too, and they can run the ball well with Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn. They are tough to beat at home, and will remember the Panthers won at Tampa in last season's finale. Jon Gruden also will make his team aware that this win is crucial in keeping the Panthers back with the rest of the division pack. Buccaneers 20, Panthers 17.
Shootout of the Week
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys are fourth in the league in passing. The Cardinals are third. The Cowboys rank second in points per game. The Cardinals rank fifth. If the Cards go nuts, go no-huddle and go shotgun with consistent four-wide receiver sets so Kurt Warner gets to throw the ball downfield quickly to Larry Fitzgerald and friends against the Cowboys' overmatched nickel and dime backs, the 3-2 hosts will survive, 34-31.
But wait, the Cowboys have equal firepower with Tony Romo to Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin and Jason Witten, and they also should remember they have a good power running game with Marion Barber to whittle the clock late to limit the time Warner has to lead a comeback charge. Cowboys 34, Cardinals 24.
Lock of the Week
Washington Redskins over St. Louis Rams. If the Redskins suddenly have no confidence despite two major NFC East road wins, they cough up the ball five times and forget how to tackle altogether, and simply clear the field for the Rams' offense, they will lose, 41-0.
But wait, the winless Rams have no answers for Jim Zorn's passing game with Jason Campbell playing mistake-free and they won't be able to stop Clinton Portis on the ground, either. A new coach in Jim Haslett and an extra week to prepare won't matter. They are still a poor road team and their fundamentals pale in comparison to what the 4-1 Redskins have shown. Redskins 38, Rams 13.
Upset of the Week
Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks. Before he retires as head coach, Mike Holmgren gets one more shot at the team with which he built his legacy as one of the game's best. It will be strange for Holmgren to do so, however, without the chance to shake Brett Favre's hand after the game.
Instead, it will be Aaron Rodgers, who will be driven to end the Packers' three-game losing streak. The concern, however, is injuries are piling up everywhere, and the running game and defense aren't quite cooperating the way they did for Favre late last season. With the Seahawks rediscovering their rushing attack and their defense buoyed by the "12th" man of their raucous home crowd, they can get Holmgren one last win against the Pack, 24-20.
But wait, Rodgers has been able to pick apart poor pass defenses with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver streaking downfield, the Seahawks' aggressive style will finally help Ryan Grant get going on cutback lanes. On the other side, the Packers' defense benefits from Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle's passing game not being at full strength. Packers 28, Seahawks 24.
Rest of the Week
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts. The Relocation Bowl has become a good rivalry over the past decade. Since 1999, Ray Lewis and the Ravens have prided themselves on premier defense, while the Colts have had their offense humming along with Peyton Manning. If the Ravens stuff Joseph Addai first and frustrate Manning with some key takeaways that turn into points, they win, 20-17. But wait, look for Manning to counter Baltimore's push and pressure with a quick, rhythmic passing game, using Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez and Marvin Harrison to get just enough gains to move the chains. Colts 20, Ravens 14.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons, already looking impressive at home, proved they have really turned the corner by outlasting the Packers in Green Bay last week. They've paved the way for Michael Turner to lead the league in rushing, and he, along with go-to receiver Roddy White, has helped rookie QB Matt Ryan settle in nicely. If they get running and play-action going this week, they can burn the Bears' defense just enough big to win, 20-17. But wait, that Bears' defense excels in stuffing the run, and it can also rattle a young passer. The Bears' offense will have an easier time establishing Matt Forte and getting a few big pass plays. Bears 20, Falcons 13.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets. Away from bungling in the Jungle, the winless Bengals have been have a very competitive road team against tough opponents. If they can find a way to keep Carson Palmer clean and get him into a winnable shootout with Brett Favre, then the final will be Bengals 27, Jets 24. But wait, the more likely scenario is the Bengals' defense will play soft to protect itself from Favre, and that will give the Jets a chance to get their 26th-ranked rushing attack going against the league's No. 29 run defense. Jets 24, Bengals 20.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings. If the Lions start playing like a team, protect the passer, effectively get the ball to Calvin Johnson as much as possible, suddenly revive both their 31st-ranked rushing offense to control the clock and 30th-ranked run defense in time to slow down Adrian Peterson, they will win, 17-16. But wait, the Lions are terrible on the road and the Vikings' D is getting great push up front. The Lions can't stop big plays from happening, whether it's Peterson by ground or Bernard Berrian by air. Vikings 34, Lions 17.
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans. The Texans have made it a habit of losing close ones, while the Dolphins have found they can win games with a pretty good formula: A power running game, an efficient passing game and much-improved defense. With Ronnie Brown on a roll and the Dolphins better at finishing games, it should be a 20-17 win. But wait, the Texans are desperate and due for a breakthrough in a stretch of five home games in six weeks. They already have figured out how to play well for three quarters, and it will take just a little bit more for them to get their first win. Texans 17, Dolphins 14.
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints. Lane Kiffin was fired so Al Davis could coach the team through Tom Cable, and that means the Raiders will look to JaMarcus Russell to heave a few deep balls against the Saints' vulnerable secondary. If he connects for a couple long touchdowns and the Raiders can turn to Darren McFadden on the ground with a big early lead, they will win, 27-20. But wait, the problem is, as good as Davis thinks Rob Ryan's defense is, it will have trouble stopping Drew Brees and Reggie Bush at any point in the game. Chances are the Saints cut out their mistakes while the Raiders don't. Saints 30, Raiders 14.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos. The Broncos have so far escaped from three barn-burners and turned in an awful performance against the lowly Chiefs, so it's hard to get a read on how good they exactly are. The Jaguars are battling injuries at 2-3, yet all of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less, including four that have been decided in the fourth quarter or overtime. With Denver banged up, it looks like a road game the physical Jags can steal, 24-20. But wait, Jags have struggled to find a consistent pass rush and enough healthy bodies in the secondary, which doesn't bode well against Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Broncos 27, Jaguars 24.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers. The 2-3 Eagles find themselves in the same position as last season -- looking up at the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins in the NFC East standings. Now Brian Westbrook has fractured ribs, and a whole promising season is breaking. They can easily fall into a West Coast trap and lose, 23-20. But wait, defense can save the Eagles. The Niners have struggled to protect J.T. O'Sullivan, and that will allow the visitors to get key sacks and takeaways. Plus, Donovan McNabb's dinking and dunking will work over San Fran's front seven. Eagles 27, 49ers 17.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns. Cleveland will be rocking for a rare Monday night game, and the Browns will be very well rested after a Week 5 bye. They actually are playing much better overall defense than last season, and the undefeated Giants seem due for a letdown after some dominant victories. Browns win, 24-23. But wait, the Browns still can't handle the Giants' power running game, or cover Plaxico Burress, or put any pressure on Eli Manning. Shockingly, they also have the league's worst passing game, and the G-Men's pass rush won't offer relief. Giants 24, Browns 10.
Byes of the Week
The Titans have the league's best record at 5-0, and their defense gets a much-needed break for its outstanding, dominant start. Looks like they will get to tee off on Kansas City in Week 7, which sets up a great Monday nighter in Nashville against the Colts. ...
Speaking of the Chiefs, they have looked totally inept when they've lost, and when that happens, Larry Johnson gets shut down. Don't expect them to find much offense against the Titans next with Brodie Croyle returning under center, but Herm Edwards gets a shot at his old team, the Jets, in Week 8. ...
The Bills are no longer in the exclusive unbeaten club with the Giants and Titans after getting burned by Arizona, but that's the kind of low you would expect from a young team that's had plenty of highs so far. The key is the healthy return of Trent Edwards from a concussion. With the Chargers, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots looming, they need their No. 1 quarterback. ...
The Steelers also need their No. 1 quarterback. While Ben Roethlisberger gets a reprieve from all those hits, they need to figure out how to keep him clean to build on their 4-1 record. They have a tough stretch coming up against the Giants, Redskins, Colts and Chargers, sandwiched by their series with the Bengals.
Stats of the Week
Week 5 straight up: 6-8
Season-to-date straight up: 46-28
by Vinnie Iyer
It's really a tradition unlike any other, because it's one that I would really like to stop sometime soon. Week 5 marked my first sub-.500 weekly record of the season, which means this week, to ensure I'm at least half right, I'm offering up two picks for every game.
Every week I feel confident about my picks on paper, until the "little things" like playing, coaching and officiating get in the way. As we know by now, every team has a potential path to victory in every game. So consider this outlining both paths, with the second path being my pick of record.
The Patriots' season path hit a roadblock with the loss of Tom Brady, and the Chargers have gone primrose to potholes in a hurry. That's the perfect enigmatic matchup to be the ...
AFC Game of the Week
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers. Raise your hand if you thought both of these AFC championship game finalists would have each lost to the Dolphins, helping Miami already double its win total from last season. OK, you can put your hand down, Ronnie Brown.
Injuries have been major factors for both teams. The Patriots have needed to get creative to get wins without Brady, and the Chargers, who had the big blow of losing Shawne Merriman on defense, have consistently battled nicks to their key offensive players.
The Chargers, when healthy, remain the NFL's most talented team. They have dynamic playmakers -- LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Cromartie -- and never are out of games with their capacity to score in any each way. The problem is, they are having trouble sustaining solid play on either offense or defense. When they get enough of one, they don't get enough of the other.
If they play up to their talents at home on Sunday night, however, they should have no trouble dispatching the Pats, a team with an aging defense and a backup QB prone to interceptions. Your score: Chargers 34, Patriots 17.
But wait, there is a reason the Patriots are still looking good at 3-1 and the Chargers are at 2-3. It comes down to coaching in New England, getting a consistent effort to use the team's strengths against the opponents' weaknesses. It was evident Bill Belichick's staff made the right adjustments on both sides of the ball post-bye, and the Patriots will be better prepared to win this tough Brady-less test. Patriots 23, Chargers 20.
NFC Game of the Week
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Suddenly, the NFC South is trying to challenge the NFC East for the league's toughest division. The preseason favorite Saints are 2-3, good for last place. The 3-2 Buccaneers won the South last season, but the 4-1 Panthers look like they are ready to take control at the top.
The Panthers have done it with a little bit of everything: good run defense, great pass defense, strong running game and an efficient passing game. They have been outstanding in executing their game plan every week, and it's all coming together like in 2003, when Jake Delhomme and John Fox led them to the Super Bowl.
With the Bucs sorting out their banged-up aging quarterbacks and having limited threats in the passing game, the Panthers should be able to keep Tampa from keeping drives alive. Offensively, if they can control the point of attack and keep springing DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, they should win, 17-13.
But wait, the Bucs play solid defense, too, and they can run the ball well with Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn. They are tough to beat at home, and will remember the Panthers won at Tampa in last season's finale. Jon Gruden also will make his team aware that this win is crucial in keeping the Panthers back with the rest of the division pack. Buccaneers 20, Panthers 17.
Shootout of the Week
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys are fourth in the league in passing. The Cardinals are third. The Cowboys rank second in points per game. The Cardinals rank fifth. If the Cards go nuts, go no-huddle and go shotgun with consistent four-wide receiver sets so Kurt Warner gets to throw the ball downfield quickly to Larry Fitzgerald and friends against the Cowboys' overmatched nickel and dime backs, the 3-2 hosts will survive, 34-31.
But wait, the Cowboys have equal firepower with Tony Romo to Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin and Jason Witten, and they also should remember they have a good power running game with Marion Barber to whittle the clock late to limit the time Warner has to lead a comeback charge. Cowboys 34, Cardinals 24.
Lock of the Week
Washington Redskins over St. Louis Rams. If the Redskins suddenly have no confidence despite two major NFC East road wins, they cough up the ball five times and forget how to tackle altogether, and simply clear the field for the Rams' offense, they will lose, 41-0.
But wait, the winless Rams have no answers for Jim Zorn's passing game with Jason Campbell playing mistake-free and they won't be able to stop Clinton Portis on the ground, either. A new coach in Jim Haslett and an extra week to prepare won't matter. They are still a poor road team and their fundamentals pale in comparison to what the 4-1 Redskins have shown. Redskins 38, Rams 13.
Upset of the Week
Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks. Before he retires as head coach, Mike Holmgren gets one more shot at the team with which he built his legacy as one of the game's best. It will be strange for Holmgren to do so, however, without the chance to shake Brett Favre's hand after the game.
Instead, it will be Aaron Rodgers, who will be driven to end the Packers' three-game losing streak. The concern, however, is injuries are piling up everywhere, and the running game and defense aren't quite cooperating the way they did for Favre late last season. With the Seahawks rediscovering their rushing attack and their defense buoyed by the "12th" man of their raucous home crowd, they can get Holmgren one last win against the Pack, 24-20.
But wait, Rodgers has been able to pick apart poor pass defenses with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver streaking downfield, the Seahawks' aggressive style will finally help Ryan Grant get going on cutback lanes. On the other side, the Packers' defense benefits from Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle's passing game not being at full strength. Packers 28, Seahawks 24.
Rest of the Week
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts. The Relocation Bowl has become a good rivalry over the past decade. Since 1999, Ray Lewis and the Ravens have prided themselves on premier defense, while the Colts have had their offense humming along with Peyton Manning. If the Ravens stuff Joseph Addai first and frustrate Manning with some key takeaways that turn into points, they win, 20-17. But wait, look for Manning to counter Baltimore's push and pressure with a quick, rhythmic passing game, using Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez and Marvin Harrison to get just enough gains to move the chains. Colts 20, Ravens 14.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons, already looking impressive at home, proved they have really turned the corner by outlasting the Packers in Green Bay last week. They've paved the way for Michael Turner to lead the league in rushing, and he, along with go-to receiver Roddy White, has helped rookie QB Matt Ryan settle in nicely. If they get running and play-action going this week, they can burn the Bears' defense just enough big to win, 20-17. But wait, that Bears' defense excels in stuffing the run, and it can also rattle a young passer. The Bears' offense will have an easier time establishing Matt Forte and getting a few big pass plays. Bears 20, Falcons 13.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets. Away from bungling in the Jungle, the winless Bengals have been have a very competitive road team against tough opponents. If they can find a way to keep Carson Palmer clean and get him into a winnable shootout with Brett Favre, then the final will be Bengals 27, Jets 24. But wait, the more likely scenario is the Bengals' defense will play soft to protect itself from Favre, and that will give the Jets a chance to get their 26th-ranked rushing attack going against the league's No. 29 run defense. Jets 24, Bengals 20.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings. If the Lions start playing like a team, protect the passer, effectively get the ball to Calvin Johnson as much as possible, suddenly revive both their 31st-ranked rushing offense to control the clock and 30th-ranked run defense in time to slow down Adrian Peterson, they will win, 17-16. But wait, the Lions are terrible on the road and the Vikings' D is getting great push up front. The Lions can't stop big plays from happening, whether it's Peterson by ground or Bernard Berrian by air. Vikings 34, Lions 17.
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans. The Texans have made it a habit of losing close ones, while the Dolphins have found they can win games with a pretty good formula: A power running game, an efficient passing game and much-improved defense. With Ronnie Brown on a roll and the Dolphins better at finishing games, it should be a 20-17 win. But wait, the Texans are desperate and due for a breakthrough in a stretch of five home games in six weeks. They already have figured out how to play well for three quarters, and it will take just a little bit more for them to get their first win. Texans 17, Dolphins 14.
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints. Lane Kiffin was fired so Al Davis could coach the team through Tom Cable, and that means the Raiders will look to JaMarcus Russell to heave a few deep balls against the Saints' vulnerable secondary. If he connects for a couple long touchdowns and the Raiders can turn to Darren McFadden on the ground with a big early lead, they will win, 27-20. But wait, the problem is, as good as Davis thinks Rob Ryan's defense is, it will have trouble stopping Drew Brees and Reggie Bush at any point in the game. Chances are the Saints cut out their mistakes while the Raiders don't. Saints 30, Raiders 14.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos. The Broncos have so far escaped from three barn-burners and turned in an awful performance against the lowly Chiefs, so it's hard to get a read on how good they exactly are. The Jaguars are battling injuries at 2-3, yet all of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less, including four that have been decided in the fourth quarter or overtime. With Denver banged up, it looks like a road game the physical Jags can steal, 24-20. But wait, Jags have struggled to find a consistent pass rush and enough healthy bodies in the secondary, which doesn't bode well against Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Broncos 27, Jaguars 24.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers. The 2-3 Eagles find themselves in the same position as last season -- looking up at the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins in the NFC East standings. Now Brian Westbrook has fractured ribs, and a whole promising season is breaking. They can easily fall into a West Coast trap and lose, 23-20. But wait, defense can save the Eagles. The Niners have struggled to protect J.T. O'Sullivan, and that will allow the visitors to get key sacks and takeaways. Plus, Donovan McNabb's dinking and dunking will work over San Fran's front seven. Eagles 27, 49ers 17.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns. Cleveland will be rocking for a rare Monday night game, and the Browns will be very well rested after a Week 5 bye. They actually are playing much better overall defense than last season, and the undefeated Giants seem due for a letdown after some dominant victories. Browns win, 24-23. But wait, the Browns still can't handle the Giants' power running game, or cover Plaxico Burress, or put any pressure on Eli Manning. Shockingly, they also have the league's worst passing game, and the G-Men's pass rush won't offer relief. Giants 24, Browns 10.
Byes of the Week
The Titans have the league's best record at 5-0, and their defense gets a much-needed break for its outstanding, dominant start. Looks like they will get to tee off on Kansas City in Week 7, which sets up a great Monday nighter in Nashville against the Colts. ...
Speaking of the Chiefs, they have looked totally inept when they've lost, and when that happens, Larry Johnson gets shut down. Don't expect them to find much offense against the Titans next with Brodie Croyle returning under center, but Herm Edwards gets a shot at his old team, the Jets, in Week 8. ...
The Bills are no longer in the exclusive unbeaten club with the Giants and Titans after getting burned by Arizona, but that's the kind of low you would expect from a young team that's had plenty of highs so far. The key is the healthy return of Trent Edwards from a concussion. With the Chargers, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots looming, they need their No. 1 quarterback. ...
The Steelers also need their No. 1 quarterback. While Ben Roethlisberger gets a reprieve from all those hits, they need to figure out how to keep him clean to build on their 4-1 record. They have a tough stretch coming up against the Giants, Redskins, Colts and Chargers, sandwiched by their series with the Bengals.
Stats of the Week
Week 5 straight up: 6-8
Season-to-date straight up: 46-28
