Week 6 (Oct.14-15)

[EXTRAPOLATER]

week 5: 2-4 -2.11
season: 37-38 +1.01
ML: 2-2 -0.45
spread: 9-7 +3.55
1H: 0-1 -0.75
teasers: 20-23 -2.8
parlays & IFs: 6-5 +1.46
best bets: 9-3


Surviving, so far, but not really able to capitalize on my solid best bets mark yet. Probably playing too many teasers, and that Cowboys win by a single point was a couple of points shy of leaving me with a plus week. I think I'll have to start playing more spreads if I'm to be successful this season.

For week 6, I've got the following calls on some teasers, mixed with NCAA plays:
Jaguars -0.5
Ravens -3
titans +10
Chargers -3

I'm not counting mixed combos in my stats, as I haven't been posting them, but I figured I'd share where my money is going for this week's NFL.

I've just got the following play in for my purposes here, with this string of games being the ones that I will consider on the spread over the next couple of days:

10-team IF bet
1.titans 0.5/0.65
2.Jaguars -6 0.6/0.5
3.Browns -4.5 0.55/0.5
4.Ravens -7 0.8/0.5
5.Cardinals -4.5 0.55/0.5
6.patriots -5.5 0.55/0.5
7.Chargers -7 0.8/0.5
8.Bears -3 0.8/0.5
9.eagles -3 0.81/0.6
10.bengals 1.05/0.75
0.5 to win max.5.5


Titans are really the only dog that I like this week, but others are bound to come in so I might be best to take it easy for week 6. I'm still not taking any serious time to use a system that I've used in the past for the NFL, but right now I think I'll stay focused on baseball until it concludes, while I'm also trying to get a handle on the new NHL season. I think that my NFL system is solid but it takes a fair bit of time, unlike my more efficient baseball system.

Week 6 could be tricky.
It may be the first week that I've got no best bets to offer.
The 4 that I've got listed above, for the teasers, look to be about the best plays that I can come up with for week 6. Ravens should cover a field goal but asking them to win by double-figures may be a stretch. Chargers should handle the Raiders, I would think, and should win by at least a major. Titans I'd be more thrilled with if they had played a better game against the Falcons, but they kind of have the Bucs number and Tampa looks to be a bit banged up so this line looks off to me. Finally, the Jaguars should certainly be victorious over the Texans and I still might add a spread play for that one.

Not much in the way of analysis in this post but, as mentioned, baseball is occupying what little free space there is floating around between my ears.

Should be more coming before Sunday.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

added:

Jaguars -6.5 -110 0.55/0.5

2-teamer
--Browns ml
--giants ml
+129
0.52/0.68

2-teamer
--Bears -3 -160
--Ravens -7 -160
+164
0.5/0.82

2-teamer
--Cardinals ml
--giants ml
+124
0.5/0.62


Might add a few more.
Stay tuned.

:weed:

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

...this is the end...beautiful friend...

...this is the end...beautiful friend...

Getting a little bit greedy today. It worked good for me yesterday with the NCAA so whathey.

added:

3-teamer
--Jaguars ml
--Bears ml
--giants ml
+188
0.52/0.98

2-teamer
--Browns ml
--patriots ml
+113
0.61/0.69

8-team IF bet
1.1H Browns -3 0.52/0.53
2.1H Bears -3 0.55/0.5
3.1H Chargers -6.5 0.55/0.5
4.1H titans 0.5/0.58
5.1H Cardinals -3 0.55/0.5
6.1H Jaguars -3.5 0.57/0.5
7.1H Ravens -6.5 0.84/0.8
8.1H patriots -3 0.88/0.8
0.52 to win max.4.7

Browns -4 -105 0.63/0.6

Bears -5 -105 0.63/0.6

3-teamer
--eagles ml
--patriots ml
--giants ml
+220
0.5/1.1

2-6.5 teaser
--Ravens -2.5
--Chargers -3
-120
0.84/0.7

2-7 teaser
--titans +10
--giants +3.5
-130
0.65/0.5

8-team IF bet
1.patriots -5.5 0.66/0.6
2.Cardinals -5 0.55/0.5
3.titans 0.5/0.6
4.Jaguars -6 0.6/0.5
5.Chargers -7 1.2/0.75
6.Browns -4 0.84/0.8
7.Bears -5 0.73/0.7
8.Ravens -7 1.2/0.8
0.66 to win max.5.25

2-7 teaser
--titans +10
--Chargers -2.5
-130
0.65/0.5

2-6 teaser
--Jaguars -0.5
--Ravens -3
-110
0.62/0.57


That's a wrap.
I think that the Giants look good for Monday night so I might add 'em if I survive Sunday.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

...of our elaborate plans...the end...

...of our elaborate plans...the end...

7-4 +1.46 on the week so far with these pending:

2-teamer
--Browns ml (W)
--giants ml
+129
0.52/0.68

3-teamer
--eagles ml (W)
--patriots ml (W)
--giants ml
+220
0.5/1.1

2-7 teaser
--titans +10 (W)
--giants +3.5
-130
0.65/0.5


I absolutely smoked on my combo plays--NCAA/NFL parlays & teasers--as I hit 4 of 4 on my key NFL calls (Jaguars -1/2, Titans at +10, and Ravens and Chargers both at -3).
I actually went 9-1 on the NCAA games that I put on Teasers (just missing California -7), so maybe I'll be bold enough to do a NCAA post for next week.
I haven't been counting combo's (any combo of MLB,NHL,NCAA,NFL,schlammeezal, schlamazel...) in any of my stats, be it the MLB forum, the hockey forum or the football forums, but they really worked good for me this weekend.
We need a "combo" forum.
The money in my accounts is more important than my stats here, but I'd love to get that Giants win to put me in the black for my season's NFL posts. I actually have the Giants parlayed (ML) a few more times then is listed above, so it's kind of a key game for me.
Next step will be to get my dang NHL posts above sea level.:com:
Baseball is a piece of cake.:00hour


I already see 2 that I like for week 7: the visitors in the Sunday and Monday night contests.

The Steelers and Broncos will both be coming off of buy weeks for the Sunday night game. Steelers currently at -3.5 looks real good to me; I was expecting about a 6. I'm still tempted to buy that friggin' half-point but my line would move from -110 (53% BE) to -135 (58% BE--both rounded up). Considering I first viewed the line knowing that I would like it at a 6 makes the buy kind of stupid, I suppose, but that 3 is quite the key number. I'll probably try the 3.5 and then maybe put them on some 6.5 or 7 point teasers so that I've got some action at +3 or +3.5.

Colts are also coming off a buy and face a Jaguars team that hasn't really played anybody yet (Broncos and Titans, I suppose, but so what?...did win at Arrowhead but, again, so what?). I was hoping for no more than a 3 for that one and I can currently get the 3 at +105. The moneyline is also tempting, at -135, but I go from a 49% BE on the -3 to a 58% BE on the moneyline--I need to risk more than 35% more to win the same amount while not getting much of an advantage taking the moneyline...if the Colts win then they should do so by at least 3, and a win I certainly think they can do.
I don't know about sinking money into week 7 on Monday morning but I might grab a piece of these two.

Ravens, at -3 (at Bills), also look pretty good.
The Cowboys are at -9.5, at home to the Vikings. I was hoping for a -7 there but I think that this one looks sweet to put on some 6.5 point teasers, playing the 'Boys at -3.

I should save all this for next week's post. I might actually try to do a serious 'cap on the games starting this week.

HELP: anybody that knows a good website for red-zone statistics, I could use it badly. I used to just get Pro Football Weekly and use that, but I figure that everything that I need must be available online. I should check NFL.com first, I suppose.
Thanks in advance if you can help me out on this.

See you in Week 7.

GL


No safety or surprise...the end.
I'll never look into your eyes...again.

Can you picture what will be
So limitless and free.
Desperately in need
Of some stranger's hand
In a desperate land.

(The Doors, The End, 1967)


:weed:

 

[IE]

As of Oct 9th:

Offense:

 	Team	Poss	TD	FG	Scor Pct TD Pct
1.	Cin.	10	7	3	1.000	.700
2.	Ariz.	13	9	3	.923	.692
3.	N.Y.J.	13	9	2	.846	.692
4.	Oak.	12	8	4	1.000	.667
5.	Car.	14	9	4	.929	.643
6.	S.D.	17	10	3	.765	.588
7.	N.E.	24	14	7	.875	.583
8.	Clev.	12	7	3	.833	.583
9.	Dall.	21	12	7	.905	.571
10.	N.O.	9	5	3	.889	.556
11.	Ind.	26	14	11	.962	.538
12.	T.B.	15	8	5	.867	.533
13.	Wash.	15	8	4	.800	.533
14.	G.B.	17	9	6	.882	.529
15.	Minn.	6	3	3	1.000	.500
16.	Pitt.	18	9	8	.944	.500
17.	Chi.	12	6	4	.833	.500
18.	N.Y.G.	18	9	4	.722	.500
19.	Det.	20	10	3	.650	.500
20.	Mia.	15	7	7	.933	.467
21.	Den.	16	7	7	.875	.438
22.	S.F.	7	3	4	1.000	.429
23.	Buff.	7	3	2	.714	.429
24.	Phil.	12	5	4	.750	.417
25.	Ten.	15	6	6	.800	.400
26.	Sea.	14	5	7	.857	.357
27.	Hou.	15	5	8	.867	.333
28.	Balt.	16	5	9	.875	.313
29.	Jax.	13	4	7	.846	.308
30.	K.C.	10	3	4	.700	.300
31.	St.L.	14	4	7	.786	.286
32.	Atl.	15	4	7	.733	.267

Defense:

	Team	Poss	TD	FG	Scor Pct TD Pct
1.	Ten.	12	3	6	.750	.250
2.	Wash.	10	3	6	.900	.300
3.	Phil.	14	5	4	.643	.357
4.	K.C.	11	4	6	.909	.364
5.	Car.	19	7	9	.842	.368
6.	S.F.	16	6	10	1.000	.375
7.	S.D.	13	5	6	.846	.385
8.	Minn.	10	4	5	.900	.400
9.	Dall.	12	5	4	.750	.417
10.	Hou.	19	8	9	.895	.421
11.	N.O.	14	6	6	.857	.429
12.	Pitt.	7	3	3	.857	.429
13.	Clev.	21	9	10	.905	.429
14.	Ariz.	16	7	8	.938	.438
15.	Jax.	11	5	2	.636	.455
16.	Buff.	22	10	8	.818	.455
17.	Atl.	11	5	5	.909	.455
18.	Chi.	21	10	3	.619	.476
19.	G.B.	12	6	4	.833	.500
20.	Oak.	16	8	6	.875	.500
21.	Cin.	16	8	6	.875	.500
22.	Den.	19	10	7	.895	.526
23.	Ind.	15	8	6	.933	.533
24.	Balt.	9	5	3	.889	.556
25.	Sea.	9	5	4	1.000	.556
26.	St.L.	18	11	4	.833	.611
27.	T.B.	13	8	4	.923	.615
28.	Mia.	17	11	6	1.000	.647
29.	Det.	19	13	2	.789	.684
30.	N.Y.G.	14	10	1	.786	.714
31.	N.Y.J.	16	12	3	.938	.750
32.	N.E.	9	7	0	.778	.778

 

[IE]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/redzone.htm?loc=interstitialskip

current...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks IE.

I could use a site so that I can keep getting fresh updates.

Is this from an MJ's link?

I'm sure that I can find if I spend the time looking but somebody must be able to pop a link in here for me to put in my favorites.
:shrug:

I'd use what you posted here, IE, but I don't even know if these are through week 5 or through week 6.

Thank Hendrix I can sleep in tomorrow.:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks...I was doing that previous post just before you added the link.

thanks again