3*
Mia -3
Ricky WIlliams isn't going to win this game for the Miami Dolphins. The Miami D and opponent's QB Byron Leftwich will. Leftwich threw 2 INT's in his first game against Houston, not exactly a team with a tough pass defense (ranked 22nd in QB Rating against going into the week 4 game). Leftwich then tore up last week, throwing against the San Diego Chargers - ranked 27th in QB Rating against going into their game as well. Miam is no SD or Hou. There are only 7 teams in the NFL who have been tougher against opposing QB's, mix that with Leftwich's inexperience against good pass defense teams, and 1-2 turnovers will be the product. Look for Miami to convert those turnovers into points early as well balanced, good run teams usually do...
Jay Fiedler should have a good game against a shaky Jac pass defense, which will actually open up the run for Williams. Miami is also third toughest against the run, so Fred Taylor won't have quite as much room to run as might be expected, which will force Leftwich to make plays under pressure against a good pass D. See above.
Miami 24
Jac 13
2*
Chi @ NO over 42
Not much defense in this one folks. NO's offense matches up very well against a weak Chi D, and unlike Oakland (who still managed to put up 21 points against Chi), NO has the ability to both stretch the field and run the ball effectively.
Chicago can find some success on the offensive side of the ball in this game as well. NO is ranked dead last in QB Rating against, and 25th against the run. This game could turn into a shoot-out real quick as it will soar over the 42 total.
NO 35
Chi 17
Buff -2.5
Buffalo squeeked by Cincy last week. The difference between Cincinnati and the NYJ is their pass defense. Cincy doesn't get enough credit despite being very effective against teams that throw the ball often and well. The Jets are no Cincy and Buffalo will be able to throw the ball around on this club - hell, the Patriots, all banged up, threw the ball around and I hate to say it, but Tom Brady and Co. are no Bledsoe, Moulds, etc. Bledsoe has been held down for a few weeks after getting off to a hot start, but there's nothing like a team that possesses a weak secondary to cure those illnesses.
A much overlooked fact is the Bills pass defense. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (despite Monday night's debacle) have given opposing QB's a lower passer rating. Buffalo has an attacking, explosive defense capable of putting up a touchdown on their own. Vinny doesn't have receivers to throw to and no running back to open up the passing lanes.
2.5 points is a reaction to Buffalo's close call against Cincy and the public's perception of the NYJ - who have played teams close, but in those games have been gifted by the opposition (ie. the NE Pats games a couple weeks ago), allowing them to stay close. Not going to happen in this game...
Buf 27
NYJ 13
1*
NO -5
If Chicago had gotten beat by Oakland, this game would be around 9, which is where it should be. NO, at home, against a very weak Chicago D who, as I mentioned above, gave up 21 points against an inept Oakland attack. NO has better skill players than Oakland at, arguably, every position. This game will turn into a shoot-out and Chicago doesn't have the offensive skill players nor the coaching to hang on to a high scoring game. If nothing else, and as we've seen time and time again, Chi will find a way to shoot themselves in the foot. Turnovers will be turned into points and the Bears won't be able to stop the NO offensive attack.
NO 35
Chi 17
That's all I've got so far for this week. The value on the board in three of these four games, IMHO, is huge. I have a good idea in a few other games, but none I want to put my money on.
Good luck this week and I'll be sure to post again of I come up with any other plays...
Mia -3
Ricky WIlliams isn't going to win this game for the Miami Dolphins. The Miami D and opponent's QB Byron Leftwich will. Leftwich threw 2 INT's in his first game against Houston, not exactly a team with a tough pass defense (ranked 22nd in QB Rating against going into the week 4 game). Leftwich then tore up last week, throwing against the San Diego Chargers - ranked 27th in QB Rating against going into their game as well. Miam is no SD or Hou. There are only 7 teams in the NFL who have been tougher against opposing QB's, mix that with Leftwich's inexperience against good pass defense teams, and 1-2 turnovers will be the product. Look for Miami to convert those turnovers into points early as well balanced, good run teams usually do...
Jay Fiedler should have a good game against a shaky Jac pass defense, which will actually open up the run for Williams. Miami is also third toughest against the run, so Fred Taylor won't have quite as much room to run as might be expected, which will force Leftwich to make plays under pressure against a good pass D. See above.
Miami 24
Jac 13
2*
Chi @ NO over 42
Not much defense in this one folks. NO's offense matches up very well against a weak Chi D, and unlike Oakland (who still managed to put up 21 points against Chi), NO has the ability to both stretch the field and run the ball effectively.
Chicago can find some success on the offensive side of the ball in this game as well. NO is ranked dead last in QB Rating against, and 25th against the run. This game could turn into a shoot-out real quick as it will soar over the 42 total.
NO 35
Chi 17
Buff -2.5
Buffalo squeeked by Cincy last week. The difference between Cincinnati and the NYJ is their pass defense. Cincy doesn't get enough credit despite being very effective against teams that throw the ball often and well. The Jets are no Cincy and Buffalo will be able to throw the ball around on this club - hell, the Patriots, all banged up, threw the ball around and I hate to say it, but Tom Brady and Co. are no Bledsoe, Moulds, etc. Bledsoe has been held down for a few weeks after getting off to a hot start, but there's nothing like a team that possesses a weak secondary to cure those illnesses.
A much overlooked fact is the Bills pass defense. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (despite Monday night's debacle) have given opposing QB's a lower passer rating. Buffalo has an attacking, explosive defense capable of putting up a touchdown on their own. Vinny doesn't have receivers to throw to and no running back to open up the passing lanes.
2.5 points is a reaction to Buffalo's close call against Cincy and the public's perception of the NYJ - who have played teams close, but in those games have been gifted by the opposition (ie. the NE Pats games a couple weeks ago), allowing them to stay close. Not going to happen in this game...
Buf 27
NYJ 13
1*
NO -5
If Chicago had gotten beat by Oakland, this game would be around 9, which is where it should be. NO, at home, against a very weak Chicago D who, as I mentioned above, gave up 21 points against an inept Oakland attack. NO has better skill players than Oakland at, arguably, every position. This game will turn into a shoot-out and Chicago doesn't have the offensive skill players nor the coaching to hang on to a high scoring game. If nothing else, and as we've seen time and time again, Chi will find a way to shoot themselves in the foot. Turnovers will be turned into points and the Bears won't be able to stop the NO offensive attack.
NO 35
Chi 17
That's all I've got so far for this week. The value on the board in three of these four games, IMHO, is huge. I have a good idea in a few other games, but none I want to put my money on.
Good luck this week and I'll be sure to post again of I come up with any other plays...
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