16-25-1 (-10.57)
I can't do a thing right now...Picked 2 SU dog wins, but went for the big chuck teaser rather than playing each game as it comes. Stupidity. I know better. (Although I would gladly kick Holmgren in the nuts it I had the chance!)
Minni -3 (1.83) 2 units.
What is this line??...I know this is a huge 'public' play, but only giving 3 here is just silly!
New Orleans are simply terrible.
Their D is non-existant (They allowed 21/27 passes last week, and nearly 4 ypr to Tampa!!)...and now they face the Vikes, av 4.5 ypr and 337 passing per game @ 8.87 ypp!!! :scared
Things are gunna get real messy here, real fast!!
I know Min's D isn't that flash either (and they were obviously lucky to cover last week), but NO just aren't in the same class.
Minnesota won 39-26 @ Atlanta last year, and I'd be expecting a similar result here.
Since '98 NFL is: 14-5-4 (Av. win 9.1) away 3+ fav off any ats win as away 7- fav. [Min]
This tells me that odds-makers over-emphasise the travel/letdown factor...Teams quite happily win on the road 2 weeks in a row.
Like I said, it will be a popular play, but @ only -3 I think it's a bargain!!
...Besides, ask yourselves this: What would the line be if Indi played @ NO this week? This Min offense is every bit as good, if not better.
Other thoughts so far....
San Fran @ Jets over 42?....SF allowing 27.4 ppg....34 and 30 on the road.
Rattay threw for over 400 yards last week, and looked very good in the no huddle/hurry up.
SF know they will have to pass to win...should be a shoot out.
NE -4?...Not at all sold on Seattle. Beaten NO, TB, SF and then last week. 4 really bad sides imo. Now face possibly the best unit in the NFL?
Brown, Branch, Dillon all ?? tho...makes it hard to make a play. Decent under if none of them play??
Won't know until game time I guess.
Cleveland/Cinci over 40?...Both D's giving up points. Cleveland are terrible v. the pass allowing 7.7 ypp (only GB worse!!), Cinci giving 5.2 ypc on the ground.
23-12-1 (av. loss 0.2) trend for away 3- dogs off a BYE (Cinci)...13-5-1 (Av. WIN 2.7) if the total stays at 40 or less.
Not sure I could take them tho...tease out to 9?
Also a 1-7-1 under trend going back to '89 (av. score ~34)...Best leave ths one alone I reckon!
San Diego +5....Should have snapped the +6 up early. Still a strong play above 4 imo...although trusting the Bolts on the road can be a tough thing!!
Same deal as last week...SD run defense very good (3.5 ypr), will force Vick to pass the ball, which we know Atlanta have problems doing!
SD well balanced offense...Atl might be able to shut down LT, but Brees 8 TD's, 2 Int's. rating 100.0!!! :scared
Starting to think any team that can contain the Falcons running game is a good side to be on. (Atl run 32 times a game, pass only 22.)
SD +5 and under 41.5???
Buff/Miami....UNDER 32!!!
DEFINATE play!!
Also fancy Miami +6 (Just can't see the Bills scoring!)
Miami won in Buff 20-3 last season....7 of those points was a returned Int...and (Ready for this?.....)...Miami threw for 37 yards!!!
It was 169 total yards to 177!! (Please someone tell me it was in a blizzard??)
The other game in Miami went 17-7.
Buff in a 10-21-2 (Av. win 1.2) spot, but really the under has to be the play here, surely!!
Chic/Wash under 34.5??....Wash best in league run D, allowing only 2.8 ypc...That will kinda ruin the Bears day! Nothing deep for Chic, lots of runs and short passing.
Wash scored only 16, 14, 18, 13, 10. Bears decent defensively. Pretty hard to see much scoring here.
Tenn/Houston over 45?...Too much of an over-reaction to MNF? Both meetings last year topped 50.
Houston airing it out beautifully...Av. 8.65 yards per pass!!....Only Min are better (Indi only 8.21!!).
If we take out Miami and Jax who can't score, Tenn have allowed 31, 38 and 27. Houston allowed Detroit to score 28 ffs...They also topped 20 in 4 of 5 games @ 23.6 ppg.
I do think the line has been inflated by MN tho....Houst +6 might be a decent play.
Anyway...I think that's enough for one day. :142lmao:
I can't do a thing right now...Picked 2 SU dog wins, but went for the big chuck teaser rather than playing each game as it comes. Stupidity. I know better. (Although I would gladly kick Holmgren in the nuts it I had the chance!)
Minni -3 (1.83) 2 units.
What is this line??...I know this is a huge 'public' play, but only giving 3 here is just silly!
New Orleans are simply terrible.
Their D is non-existant (They allowed 21/27 passes last week, and nearly 4 ypr to Tampa!!)...and now they face the Vikes, av 4.5 ypr and 337 passing per game @ 8.87 ypp!!! :scared
Things are gunna get real messy here, real fast!!
I know Min's D isn't that flash either (and they were obviously lucky to cover last week), but NO just aren't in the same class.
Minnesota won 39-26 @ Atlanta last year, and I'd be expecting a similar result here.
Since '98 NFL is: 14-5-4 (Av. win 9.1) away 3+ fav off any ats win as away 7- fav. [Min]
This tells me that odds-makers over-emphasise the travel/letdown factor...Teams quite happily win on the road 2 weeks in a row.
Like I said, it will be a popular play, but @ only -3 I think it's a bargain!!
...Besides, ask yourselves this: What would the line be if Indi played @ NO this week? This Min offense is every bit as good, if not better.
Other thoughts so far....
San Fran @ Jets over 42?....SF allowing 27.4 ppg....34 and 30 on the road.
Rattay threw for over 400 yards last week, and looked very good in the no huddle/hurry up.
SF know they will have to pass to win...should be a shoot out.
NE -4?...Not at all sold on Seattle. Beaten NO, TB, SF and then last week. 4 really bad sides imo. Now face possibly the best unit in the NFL?
Brown, Branch, Dillon all ?? tho...makes it hard to make a play. Decent under if none of them play??
Won't know until game time I guess.
Cleveland/Cinci over 40?...Both D's giving up points. Cleveland are terrible v. the pass allowing 7.7 ypp (only GB worse!!), Cinci giving 5.2 ypc on the ground.
23-12-1 (av. loss 0.2) trend for away 3- dogs off a BYE (Cinci)...13-5-1 (Av. WIN 2.7) if the total stays at 40 or less.
Not sure I could take them tho...tease out to 9?
Also a 1-7-1 under trend going back to '89 (av. score ~34)...Best leave ths one alone I reckon!
San Diego +5....Should have snapped the +6 up early. Still a strong play above 4 imo...although trusting the Bolts on the road can be a tough thing!!
Same deal as last week...SD run defense very good (3.5 ypr), will force Vick to pass the ball, which we know Atlanta have problems doing!
SD well balanced offense...Atl might be able to shut down LT, but Brees 8 TD's, 2 Int's. rating 100.0!!! :scared
Starting to think any team that can contain the Falcons running game is a good side to be on. (Atl run 32 times a game, pass only 22.)
SD +5 and under 41.5???
Buff/Miami....UNDER 32!!!
DEFINATE play!!Also fancy Miami +6 (Just can't see the Bills scoring!)
Miami won in Buff 20-3 last season....7 of those points was a returned Int...and (Ready for this?.....)...Miami threw for 37 yards!!!
It was 169 total yards to 177!! (Please someone tell me it was in a blizzard??)
The other game in Miami went 17-7.
Buff in a 10-21-2 (Av. win 1.2) spot, but really the under has to be the play here, surely!!
Chic/Wash under 34.5??....Wash best in league run D, allowing only 2.8 ypc...That will kinda ruin the Bears day! Nothing deep for Chic, lots of runs and short passing.
Wash scored only 16, 14, 18, 13, 10. Bears decent defensively. Pretty hard to see much scoring here.
Tenn/Houston over 45?...Too much of an over-reaction to MNF? Both meetings last year topped 50.
Houston airing it out beautifully...Av. 8.65 yards per pass!!....Only Min are better (Indi only 8.21!!).
If we take out Miami and Jax who can't score, Tenn have allowed 31, 38 and 27. Houston allowed Detroit to score 28 ffs...They also topped 20 in 4 of 5 games @ 23.6 ppg.
I do think the line has been inflated by MN tho....Houst +6 might be a decent play.
Anyway...I think that's enough for one day. :142lmao:
