Redskins-Cowboys
These two teams are very similarly constructed, and both of their defenses have been less than effective so far on the year. Offensively, their numbers are surprisingly similar. While past results are not always a good indicator of future predictions, sometimes they are all we have when making an educated guess on what will happen in a game. If history is any predictor in this game, then there is a good chance that the Redskins will win, or at least cover the spread.
The Redskins got out to a rocky start this season, losing their first three games, and giving up 32.7 points in those three outings. In their *defense*, they did play the new-look Eagles in their first game, where no one knew quite what to expect. Then, they played the Packers and Lions, both solid offensive-minded teams. Finally, they got a much needed win on the road against the Raiders. After being down 14-0 in the first quarter, they rallied and held the Raiders scoreless the rest of the game and won by ten. This may be exactly the kind of momentum they needed going into the bye week, where they can build upon their successes instead of dwelling on a loss.
The Cowboys have long been known as ?America?s team?, and in a way, they really are. The casual bettor likes to bet on the most popular teams, which is why they are often good fades. Popular teams like the Lakers in basketball and Dallas in football struggle ATS. The Cowboys are fourth to last in the league in ATS cover rate over the last five seasons, and in primetime night games with Romo they are 4-10 ATS (28.6%). In all games with Romo they are 17-29 (37.0%) as a home favorite and if you add in that they are coming off a loss, 5-23 ATS (29.4%). The expectation that they will rebound as a home favorite may be a faulty generalization. They also struggle in important divisional games. In all divisional games with Romo, they are 12-25 ATS (32.4%) and 5-14 ATS (26.3%) as a home favorite. When Romo is coming off a loss where he threw an interception, the Cowboys are 5-12 ATS (29.4%) as a home favorite. It wouldn?t be hard to surmise that the Cowboys prepared very hard for the Broncos, and the end of that game was certainly a let down. This week may have been a bit difficult to fully concentrate in preparing for the Redskins, while Washington had great time to prepare. In this millenium, teams playing as a home favorite coming off a non-divisional loss, are 12-21 ATS (36.4%) in divisional games with less rest than their opponent.
This is a big game for both teams, as they can take a step up on their divisional foes. With Dallas coming off a hard fought game, I like to think that the Redskins are the better prepared team coming into this game, with a bit more fight in them to keep pace. Divisional teams playing as a road dog with a worse record than their opponent are 58-37-3 ATS (61.1%) over the last five seasons when their opponent is coming off a game where they covered the spread (they played hard).
The Redskins playing as a road dog are 12-3 when coming off a game where they rushed for more than 100 yards under Shanahan. The Redskins have won the time of possession battle in 67% of their games against the Romo-era Cowboys, and I think they will have a big game in primetime. Under Shanahan, the Redskins are 18-9 ATS (66.7%) when playing as a road dog, and 17-8 ATS (68.0%) in divisional games. As a road dog in a divisional game, they are 9-2 ATS (81.8%) under Shanahan. Shanahan?s teams coming out of their bye week are 12-6 ATS. He may not be my favorite coach, but he prepares his team well for big games.
Head to head, Romo is just 2-10 ATS against the Redskins. Given history and the amount of rest and preparation for each team, I think the Redskins can keep this close or win the game outright.
Redskins +6 -117
