...time flies when you're havin fun, eh? :shrug:
25-9 on the season. :drinky:
Detroit v. Tampa under 44.5
League: 9-41 under (av. total 40.2?av. score 33.7) home fav of <3 off a BYE. [Det]
3-19 under (Av. total 39.1?av. score 32.1) if opps last game went 10+ under.
One of my all time favourite systems?and I like it with good reason again here.
Detroit are predominantly a passing team (run just 19 times a game), and face Tampa?s 3rd ranked pass D, allowing just 5.68 y/pass.
It was evident last game for Det v. a very strong pass D (Washington) that they struggle to move the ball and score, they gained just 106 yards in the air, and scored 3.
TB have allowed just 14.2 ppg so far, 10.4 if we take out Indi?s 33.
I guess the biggest worry is Detroit?s horrible defense, but Tampa still have some key offensive injuries, so happy to go with the under here.
NYG -9
League: 17-2 (18-1 this no!...av. win 24.7!) as a 7+ fav, off an ats win as away 3+ fav, with 34+ mins TOP, if opp last won ats as a dog. [NYG]
(1-0 2006. Chic 34-7 Det @ -8.5
(2-0 2007. Pits 26-3 Buff @ -10. NE 34-17 Cleve @ -16.5)
SF are also in a 0-10 ?under? situation where teams av. just 7.6 ppg!!...and I think that?s about right.
49ers av. just over 12 ppg for the season, but Dilfer has managed just 3 and 7, and looked terrible in the process.
Their D has been holding up ok, but I doubt very much they can hold the Giants to under 20?SF being over-rated off an ats win last week, and the Giants are playing well enough to cover it and more!
?Zona @ Washington under 36
League: 5-21 under (Av. total 41.2?av. score 36.2) as a 7+ dog, off a SU loss as a 3+ fav, if opp had 30+ mins TOP as a dog. [Zona]
(0-4 under in 2006. Mia 10-20 NE @ 37. Oak 9-20 KC @ 36. Buff 7-19 Balt @ 35.5. Atl 17-24 Phi @ 43.5)
1-9 under (Av. total 40.6?av. score 30.3) if they lost by 14+ ats.
Washington have the best pass D in the NFL @ just 4.82 y/pass. They also allow just 3.7 y/rush and 13.8 ppg, so it?s tough to see the Cards getting too much going in this game.
Washington are a perfect 0-5 under this season, and have only topped 20 once (v. Det)
Rattay at QB for the Cards, so plenty of clock-killing hand-offs to James, and this total is starting to look a little high.
Tenn -2.5 (1.99)
League: 11-0 SU (and 11-0 ats this no?av. win 10.6) as an away fav, off a 1-3 SU loss as any dog, if opp is off a 7+ ats loss. [Tenn]
(1-0 2006. Cleveland 24-21 Oak @ -1.5)
Basically, I don?t care if Young or Collins take the reigns here?one team can play defense, the other one can?t!
Tenn allowing an impressive 14.4 ppg?and only Indi have topped 14 on them. League?s 4th best pass D (5.83 y/pass) and 3rd best run D @ 3.5?and that will be Houston?s main problem, a run D that allows 4.8 y/rush, and a 47% 3rd down conversion rate.
The Titans have won the last 4 meetings SU v. Houston (2-0 last season) and are 7-1 last 8 inside the div, while Houston are 1-11 after allowing 150+ yards on the ground.
Oaktown -2.5 and under 37.5 **
League: 3-19-1 (Av. loss 7.5) away (-3 to +3) off a 7+ ats win as a home dog with 30+ mins TOP, if opp also had 30+ mins TOP. [KC]
(0-2 2006. Tex 22-28 Tenn @ +3. Zona 9-22 Oak @ -3)
?and?3-12 (1-14 this no!...av. loss 12.1) away dog, total <38, off a SU win as home dog, if both teams had 30+ mins TOP. [KC]
?remarkably there is only one common game in that lot since 1994, so a combined 1-21 at this number since then.
League: 5-21-1 under (Av. total 39.3?av. score 32.3) home fav, off an ats (10+ SU) loss as away 7+ dog, with 30+ mins TOP. [Oak]
1-9 under (Av. 39.9?av. score 30.7) as a home fav of 3 or less.
I like the under, ?cause there could easily be 80 rushes in this game!! Neither team pass the ball well, both defend the pass ok (KC @ 5.93 y/pass, Oak haven?t allowed a 40+ yard pass)?both both teams giving up big chunks on the ground?
?but can KC take advantage of it? They av. just 3.1 y/rush?last in the NFL, while Oak gain 4.9 which is right up there with the best.
In both KC?s wins, Huard has thrown for 260+ yards, I don?t think he?ll be able to in this one.
** My record is pretty terrible when playing 2 things on the same game, so I?m going with ? a unit on each?so, for record keeping purposes, if both win it?ll be +1, both lose -1, and if they split (likely I think!) I?ll just leave it out completely?
Tease: Cinci -0.5/Philli +0.5 (1.91)
League: 0-20 SU (Av. loss 12.6) away 3+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as a 3+ fav, if last game went 10+ over and opp is off an ats win. [Chic]
Same old story for the Bears?their defense sucks, but most people aren?t waking up to the fact!..allowing 4.6 y/run, 7.33 y/pass and nearly 25 ppg?
?they can?t run the ball (3.2), and they are just 2-4.
Of course Philli are 2-3, but just 2 games at home so far, a BIG win over Det, and a loss to the very strong defensive Redskins.
I?ve got no problem with the Eagles winning this game. (Westbrook prop anyone?!)
League: 15-1 SU (Av. win 16.1) as any fav, total 44.5+, off a SU loss as away fav with <26 mins TOP. [Cinci]
10-0 SU (8-2 ats?av. win 17.5) if opp is off an ats loss.
High total means 2 crap D?s?but the Jets weakness is through the air, allowing NFL?s 2nd worst 7.8 y/pass, which will play right into the hands of Palmer and his band of merry receivers.
Cinci are terrible v. the run (allow 4.9) but 1) not sure the Jets can take advantage?2) every chance they be behind early and forced to pass.
Jets 1-5?0-3 on the road?Cinci 1-4, but 1-1 at home and the loss to NE.
Again, happy to take the Bengals to win SU.
ok...time to sit back, wait...and maybe have a small drink or two in the meantime?... :toast:
Good Luck all
25-9 on the season. :drinky:
Detroit v. Tampa under 44.5
League: 9-41 under (av. total 40.2?av. score 33.7) home fav of <3 off a BYE. [Det]
3-19 under (Av. total 39.1?av. score 32.1) if opps last game went 10+ under.
One of my all time favourite systems?and I like it with good reason again here.
Detroit are predominantly a passing team (run just 19 times a game), and face Tampa?s 3rd ranked pass D, allowing just 5.68 y/pass.
It was evident last game for Det v. a very strong pass D (Washington) that they struggle to move the ball and score, they gained just 106 yards in the air, and scored 3.
TB have allowed just 14.2 ppg so far, 10.4 if we take out Indi?s 33.
I guess the biggest worry is Detroit?s horrible defense, but Tampa still have some key offensive injuries, so happy to go with the under here.
NYG -9
League: 17-2 (18-1 this no!...av. win 24.7!) as a 7+ fav, off an ats win as away 3+ fav, with 34+ mins TOP, if opp last won ats as a dog. [NYG]
(1-0 2006. Chic 34-7 Det @ -8.5
(2-0 2007. Pits 26-3 Buff @ -10. NE 34-17 Cleve @ -16.5)
SF are also in a 0-10 ?under? situation where teams av. just 7.6 ppg!!...and I think that?s about right.
49ers av. just over 12 ppg for the season, but Dilfer has managed just 3 and 7, and looked terrible in the process.
Their D has been holding up ok, but I doubt very much they can hold the Giants to under 20?SF being over-rated off an ats win last week, and the Giants are playing well enough to cover it and more!
?Zona @ Washington under 36
League: 5-21 under (Av. total 41.2?av. score 36.2) as a 7+ dog, off a SU loss as a 3+ fav, if opp had 30+ mins TOP as a dog. [Zona]
(0-4 under in 2006. Mia 10-20 NE @ 37. Oak 9-20 KC @ 36. Buff 7-19 Balt @ 35.5. Atl 17-24 Phi @ 43.5)
1-9 under (Av. total 40.6?av. score 30.3) if they lost by 14+ ats.
Washington have the best pass D in the NFL @ just 4.82 y/pass. They also allow just 3.7 y/rush and 13.8 ppg, so it?s tough to see the Cards getting too much going in this game.
Washington are a perfect 0-5 under this season, and have only topped 20 once (v. Det)
Rattay at QB for the Cards, so plenty of clock-killing hand-offs to James, and this total is starting to look a little high.
Tenn -2.5 (1.99)
League: 11-0 SU (and 11-0 ats this no?av. win 10.6) as an away fav, off a 1-3 SU loss as any dog, if opp is off a 7+ ats loss. [Tenn]
(1-0 2006. Cleveland 24-21 Oak @ -1.5)
Basically, I don?t care if Young or Collins take the reigns here?one team can play defense, the other one can?t!
Tenn allowing an impressive 14.4 ppg?and only Indi have topped 14 on them. League?s 4th best pass D (5.83 y/pass) and 3rd best run D @ 3.5?and that will be Houston?s main problem, a run D that allows 4.8 y/rush, and a 47% 3rd down conversion rate.
The Titans have won the last 4 meetings SU v. Houston (2-0 last season) and are 7-1 last 8 inside the div, while Houston are 1-11 after allowing 150+ yards on the ground.
Oaktown -2.5 and under 37.5 **
League: 3-19-1 (Av. loss 7.5) away (-3 to +3) off a 7+ ats win as a home dog with 30+ mins TOP, if opp also had 30+ mins TOP. [KC]
(0-2 2006. Tex 22-28 Tenn @ +3. Zona 9-22 Oak @ -3)
?and?3-12 (1-14 this no!...av. loss 12.1) away dog, total <38, off a SU win as home dog, if both teams had 30+ mins TOP. [KC]
?remarkably there is only one common game in that lot since 1994, so a combined 1-21 at this number since then.
League: 5-21-1 under (Av. total 39.3?av. score 32.3) home fav, off an ats (10+ SU) loss as away 7+ dog, with 30+ mins TOP. [Oak]
1-9 under (Av. 39.9?av. score 30.7) as a home fav of 3 or less.
I like the under, ?cause there could easily be 80 rushes in this game!! Neither team pass the ball well, both defend the pass ok (KC @ 5.93 y/pass, Oak haven?t allowed a 40+ yard pass)?both both teams giving up big chunks on the ground?
?but can KC take advantage of it? They av. just 3.1 y/rush?last in the NFL, while Oak gain 4.9 which is right up there with the best.
In both KC?s wins, Huard has thrown for 260+ yards, I don?t think he?ll be able to in this one.
** My record is pretty terrible when playing 2 things on the same game, so I?m going with ? a unit on each?so, for record keeping purposes, if both win it?ll be +1, both lose -1, and if they split (likely I think!) I?ll just leave it out completely?
Tease: Cinci -0.5/Philli +0.5 (1.91)
League: 0-20 SU (Av. loss 12.6) away 3+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as a 3+ fav, if last game went 10+ over and opp is off an ats win. [Chic]
Same old story for the Bears?their defense sucks, but most people aren?t waking up to the fact!..allowing 4.6 y/run, 7.33 y/pass and nearly 25 ppg?
?they can?t run the ball (3.2), and they are just 2-4.
Of course Philli are 2-3, but just 2 games at home so far, a BIG win over Det, and a loss to the very strong defensive Redskins.
I?ve got no problem with the Eagles winning this game. (Westbrook prop anyone?!)
League: 15-1 SU (Av. win 16.1) as any fav, total 44.5+, off a SU loss as away fav with <26 mins TOP. [Cinci]
10-0 SU (8-2 ats?av. win 17.5) if opp is off an ats loss.
High total means 2 crap D?s?but the Jets weakness is through the air, allowing NFL?s 2nd worst 7.8 y/pass, which will play right into the hands of Palmer and his band of merry receivers.
Cinci are terrible v. the run (allow 4.9) but 1) not sure the Jets can take advantage?2) every chance they be behind early and forced to pass.
Jets 1-5?0-3 on the road?Cinci 1-4, but 1-1 at home and the loss to NE.
Again, happy to take the Bengals to win SU.
ok...time to sit back, wait...and maybe have a small drink or two in the meantime?... :toast:
Good Luck all
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