Week 7 Card (Oct 13-Oct 16)

[Irish]

UNC -6.5 over UVA
The wahoos always play solid at home but I think UNC is starting to come together. The line I'd getting good push and they found some running room. Ever week UNC seems to get someone back and lose someone else. I would like to see sturdivant and Carter together but I like what I have seen from riddick and the younger guys on defense. In fact Clemson would not have been that close if the safety did not try for the pick and miss for coenzyme best pass and run of the game. UNC has lost the last four here. Normally this is a low scoring game and it's a grind it out type. I think UVA has caught UNC looking ahead but not this year. Not with the early season loses. I think the UVA defense of the past was a bit better suited to stop UNC. Looking at UVA they fight hard but I just do not think they have the same speed. UNC should be way too much for UVA to handle on the lines and I like the defense to create field positions and even if drives stall look for barth to make good on some points. Yates has a good handle of the offense and each game they are adding in some different plays which allow UNC to use it's speed on the edge. I like UNC to bang inside and get the defense guessing then hit them over the tip. This is a bad spot for UNC considering UVA has had the number of the heels, it is at UVA, injuries and suspensions and 6.5... But i like what I see week after week with the heels. Plus they know one more loss and the ACC option is out the window.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

NC st (-7.5) over ECU
ECU is a decent home team but considering NC st has been wining you might see a little red in ECU. The school is about a hour and fourth five non away. Davis is a good mobile QB but I don't think much of his ability to read coverage. ECU has a new coach and almost 50% new starters. In the aeries the dog has won the last three. But I think NC st is better and ECU is less than what Holtz coached. Russell Wilson has showed he has a lot of skill at the QB potion. The defense plays well but they lack a dominating player. So I break this down into offense vs offense. The mobility of both QB bails out the line at times. Wilson is better looking down field on the run Davis looks to run. This should be a huge difference because ECU is not disciplined enough to stay with the WR when it breaks down. I like the running attack of NC st and I think the WR have a big edge. So what offense will sputter or trade 7 for 3? I believe that is ECU. They will play well but O'Brien is the better coach and state has the better offense. Emotional win off BC but NC st has showed good maturity as all O'Brien teams have done. The game plan and prices on offense are the reason I like the pack but I think they have a small edge in the secondary and speed as well.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

UCF (6.5) over Marshall
This is an interesting match up. I like marshals Oline but I like UCF as a team. I mean they have questions in a few positions but they have a solid game play to use what they have as seen last week when they beat UAB. Still Marshall is a tough out at home but they have lost the last 5 in this series. Last year was a one point loss but it was a very good game and could have gone either way many different times throughout the game. Marshall was 1-2 as a dog at home last season. I like the QB play of UCF more than marshall, both guys can move hut UCF is better at it. I think overall UCF has more speed at WR and on the defensive see of the ball. Still.I give the edge to Marshall in toughness, power and experience against better teams. I just think Marshall WILL over power UCF in the run game but drives will not all lead to points while UCF makes some big plays and tries to get Marshall out of the running game. Get up on the herd then pin the ears back on the defensive line and drop in coverage and the herd QB will take too much tile to make the play. That means sacks or picks for the knights. So this comes down to will Marshall run over UCF or will UCF run around the herd. I hate spotting almost a td but I think UCF is the better team and can take advantage of the Marshall defense.

Cheers
Irish

 

[ankh4all]

Three road favorites scare me, but I'll be on them with you!! GL!! :0074

 

[ankh4all]

Three road favorites scare me, but I'll be on them with you!! GL!! :0074

GreT start!!:0074

 

[Irish]

Thanks Ankh4all just remember that as much as want to win them all I have learned never follow someone blindly. You work hard for your $$ and you should make the play with them. If I help than my post is not in vein. But guys like Fletcher, LDB, AR, Hawkeye, Thunder, Box and One, MC, BM, Raymond, Corley, tulah, woodson, judge, IE, and many others ( sorry if i did not name your name) have a ton to offer and I respect them and that's why I stay at MJs NCAA foots. I have been burned by following blind and no one to blame but myself. Now if you agree with me and that's your play well good on ya, and I hope we keep winning. Just a lesson I learned and wanted to pass. Thanks for the kudos.


KU(+3.5) over Kst
I like Kansas to win this game but I'll take the cushion because the best player on the field is Thomas and he had a career day last year against the jayhawks. This series has a big tilt to the home team since the home team is 6-1. If the trend is to continue there are some big things that need to happen. One is Webb needs to play well but if you have been watching KU he has played well but not avoiding the big mistakes. In fact Kansas has made way too many mistakes this year but that's expected with all the youth and new system. Still watching Kansas state it is evident this team cannot pass deeper than an eight yard out. Coffman continue to be exposed and the have way too little experience behind Coffman not to have him playing. Plus Snyder loves his upperclassmen. So if Kansas st has not really shown the ability to stretch the field the Kansas defense should be able to commit a safety to help on Thomas and go one on one at corner. I like the defensive line and linebackers for Kansas. I think the Kansas linebackers are going to be something special in a year or two and they are lead by Tharp. He will meet Thomas more than once tonight. I give the edge to the Kansas offensive line. Thomas is the better runner but Nebraska exposed the Kansas st line and Kansas should do the same. The left side of Kansas has a nice pair and the Kansas runners should be going behind that side on a lot of big plays. What I noticed more than anything from the Nebraska game was the poor angles players took on defense. That's not gameplan, that's player reaction and that shows a big weakness in read and react plus it opens up deep plays in the passing game if the safety cannot play angles. If Kansas state was a spread offense I would worry since Kansas needs it's linebackers in and spread kills that but Kansas state is a tight end full back offense most of the time and that plays into Kansas. Crash down and force Coffman to beat you and you can be more productive that the wildcats and that means more drives resulting in points. Like the Kansas defense, kansas o line Kansas QB and kansas home field. Like Kansas st runner and coach. Kansas has every opportunity to win they have to avoid the big mistake and bottle up the box get bodies at Thomas and stop him before he gets going. Again I'll take the points but it would not shock me for the home team to go 7-1 after tonight.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Master Capper]

Were butting heads on UNC, but best of luck.

 

[Irish]

Thanks MC, good luck to you too.

WVU (-11.5) over S. Florida
This play REALLY goes against a lot of my thoughts but I have to play based on the other info I like and based on WVU being the better team. WVU has been upset in this series 3 out of 4 against SF. WVU is not really a good home favorite considering they covered one out of five last year. The bulls have a nice veteran group on offense but I wonder if they can be productive in this system. Skip Holtz is 1-2 against WVU. You can tell that south Florida lives and dies through Daniels. This kid had more yards in last years game than WVU did as a team. The home team has won the last three but what about this large number. The money is on WVU and the line is moving down. Still this is going to be a cold and possibly WET game. WVU has the better offense and I really like the QB for WVU in this system. See White was a runner, Brown was bad under pressure and a question mark game to game but this kid is a thrower. With the BIG WR mixed with the speedy WR for WVU having a thrower makes them dangerous. See every knows about Devine and the game plan is get to him and atop WVU. Now smith moves to keep the play alive and that's big for the receiving game. Plus when it breaks down he will pull it down. They have a hammer the get three yards or more per run in Clarke. They have speed on edge with Devine and they have misdirecting is sanders. They are the faster team tonight and I learned that the hard way against LSU. Now what can we expect on the defense? As a guy that has been very hard on WVU defense in the past this group is starting to play well. I give WVU a big edge on defense and special teams. I think Daniels is trying to do everything and when you watch him he make a lot of mistakes and misses a lot of open routes because he has poor field passer vision. He is a running back with a good arm. The defense WVU uses has never limited Daniels but I think they can do a little more tonight. I look for both teams to be able to move the ball but I look for WVU defense to make more plays than south Florida. WVU has the better kicker and homefield advantage. I expect some scores but I think WVU exploits it's speed and edge in the passing game to get some scores and motivation quickly. Scared for the amount of chalk because these two normally have a good battle but I have to think WVU has the better team and can get on top and force Daniels to throw and then it's trouble. Florida dropped into coverage and forced Daniels to read and he couldn't do it. WVU used that Florida game tape in the second half and you have the blue print to win by double digits. Which is the average against skip Holtz in that 1-2 record against WVU.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

With you on Kansas tonight Irish....Good luck this week....

 

[ankh4all]

Thanks Irish, I am fully aware I am responsible for every penny I wager. I also know enough to know that I don't know enough to cap my own games. So, yes, I read up on you and some of those you mention, look at line movement etc...
As it turns out I am against your WVU tonight as I am already down following my local capper.
BOL and Thnx again!!!
:0008

 

[Irish]

Good luck Big A... I was not trying to souls like a dogs bullocks just have done that mistake and lost over my arse and always warn folks.

WVU/SFla OVER 43.5
Well looks like some decent weather right now. This game has averages about 39 points over the last three. I like what the offense brings on both sides and with big play potential I like the value here.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Wilson]

I really think you have nailed the WVU game.

USF has been successful against WVU because...... WVU was one dimensional and USF had the speed on defense to get from hash to sideline to contain WVU speed.

Geno Smith is the real deal and WVU now has real down field threats. I was in Morgantown last weekend and it was eye candy to see them have such an effective vertical passing game. Opens up everything else in that offense. Devine only ran the ball 3 times last week and he should be healthy enough to have some big runs tonight. That looks like a big number....but, Vegas is all over WVU's improvement on the offensive side of the ball.

Now, don't get me wrong---WVU has some warts on the O-Line and they have to keep USF off balance with their play calling.

WVU is also very much improved on the defensive side. Last year they gave up big play after big play to Daniels. They have improved their 3rd down pass rush with Irvin and that allows WVU linebackers to play back a little to contain Daniels.

I haven't really watched USF this year---but, I am sure they are good for at least 2 scores and I think WVU wins easily...so, I like the over, too. The rain is gone and that synthetic turf will be a fast track.

One more point---Brad Starks is now healthy and he showed it on Saturday with 3 TD catches. WVU also hasn't shown their freshman phenom in Ivan MacCartney---you will see that cat tonight---I bet you see him make a big catch way down field tonight. I was in Baton Rouge and I will go to my grave saying if WVU had a healthy Starks and Devine that nigh---LSU isn't undefeated right now.

But, I am a homer. :0008

 

[Chadman]

Great writeup and analysis on KU/K-State. I follow the Big 12 more than any conference having lived that area and followed closely for so many years. But have been wrong often on these two teams this year, and always lean towards K-State with my heart most of the time (best friend got his masters there).

I like the thinking on KU running the ball successfully, and their defense being well-suited to match up against K St's offense. Run the ball, slow down the run, is always a good recipe at home getting points.

Happy to go with you and my buddy Al tonight. Thanks again for the writeup.

 

[BadAngel]

GL Irish. I like Kan myself.

BA

 

[hawkeye]

You always have good info-thanks & gl

 

[Morris]

Like that KU call. GL tonite!!

 

[Irish]

Thanks guys I appreciate it!!!!!

KU/Kst UNDER (49.5)
These teams have played under the number a lot. Both team use close and have useless possessions. I think this game can be in the teens.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

KSt (-.5) over Kansas 2nd half
KSt is in the drivers seat and they can just run over Kansas now.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

WVU (-3.5) over S.Fla 2nd Half
Big play
With a 14 point lead the bulls might have to press and we all saw the decision making ability Daniels showed at the end of the half. This is what I think WVU can take advantage against. I would like to see WVU throw more but I think they clip away and take control. Only bad part is S.Fla gets the ball to start but think WVU can blanket the bulls offense. Florida in the second half??

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

It was really nice of WVU to turn off the offense at halftime.

Lousville (+3) over Cincy
This is a tough game to cap because what team shows up? Cincy has played some tough teams but been killed by them all. L'ville has played lesser talent but they have showed signs of life. I like the home field advantage here a lot. L'ville coming off the beating they gave Memphis. Cincy coming off the beating the gave Miami Ohio. Cincy has lost on the road this year but to be fair it was to Fresno and Oklahoma. Two rookie head coaches for these teams but Cincy has more experience at coach but IMO strong has the better staff. Collaros has shown some growing pains this season but the kid still has a ton of talent. Pead for the first time last week looked like he was running with determination. So the Louisville defense is going to have to step up but I think they are better suited for defense with Strong and Bedford. These guys are defensive minds so even with the lack of "his" players he still should get productivity. You also have to think the 40 shilackinh this card team took last year from Cincy. Abe Froman the sausage king of Chicago leads an offense that has showed a nice mix of pass and run and you are starting to see some of the Utah/ Florida system that these coaches are used to coaching. Lousiville get my vote because they are home and against their tough outs Kentucky and org st they played competitively and showed they have talent against those teams. On the other side Cincy was not impressive against those better teAms so the wins they get against the lesser teams is not doing it for me. This is a rivalry game and should be pretty chippy but in the end I think Louisville is the better team so I'll grab three at home. The key is make collars read coverage. Throw different looks at him and get him thinking to much. This kid is great at running or throwing but you get him moving he becomes a little rattled. I expect strong to have a defensive gameplan that is good enough he just needs some defenders to step up. I think they have the ability on offense to keep pace. Louisville has about 4 options at running back that can all produce. They have a lot of experience in the skill areas and the line has looked solid at times getting great push and opening holes but I have seen them struggle with end pressure or speed rush which is a Cincy defensive staple. All sorts of offensive options so in the land of the offense the man who can play SOME defense is king. Strong is one of my biggest factors here. Play action and SCREENS will kill Cincy because they like to rush and get in the backfield.

How about that Kansas game. Jayhawks a little hint when a teams best option is the run, try to be some what ready for it.

Cheers
Irish