Week 7 Card (Oct 5th - Oct 9th)

[Irish]

UNC -1 over Clemson
UNC has been playing good ball all season considering what they lost. Watching Clemson against Miami I am not sold on the pressure the defense can put on Yates. There is not one WR on Clemson that can make a play. Pretty much just like in years past Clemson offense comes down to Ellington and Harper. Bad news there is UNC have VERY fast linebackers to stay with those guys. Miami had ONE passing option and that was Hankerson, that makes me happy because UNC does not have a superstar WR but they have good options. Jacory Harris gave Clemson every opportunity to win with turnovers, I think Yates is a better game manager and less of a risk taker. I like the north Carolina TE to have a breakout game. This guy should get lost in the was as the Miami TE did but Yates can hit him. Edge in running game to Clemson but I think the auburn game really rattled Parker. If UNC sends some pressure, get to Parker and hit him a few times, he might have a tough time keeping eyes downfield. I think both offensive lines need work but I think UNC is just a tad better. I think both teams defensive fronts will challenge the offensive lines. Miami was running the ball pretty easily up the gut and I would expect UNC tries that as well. Clemson put the safety in the box after the Miami run game started moving and I would like to think Yates will take advantage more than Harris. This is a huge game for UNC. They are starting to get some wins behind them and they are playing on a high note right now. Clemson is low after two big loses and Parker has his head down. Get on him quick and focus on the run and the UNC defense can limit them all day. I like the home field as well. Good value for the heels at home just giving one in a spot they need a win.

Cheers
Irish

 

[LDB]

It's week 6 bud...

gl

 

[Irish]

I can see the future.

Thanks. Did that from phone.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Troy (+3.5) over mid tenn st
Ok looking at this as Dashers first game back under the lights at home means the big mo is with the raiders. What is very nice on my side is mid ten st coach has been there for five years. The last three the Troy coaching staff had won this game by an average of three or more TD's. I would say the head coach for Troy and his twenty years at Troy have had the beat recently. This year is a little harder with out Levi brown and having to replace a lot of talent on defense. Still they have a pretty good o-line with good experience and three interesting different options as runners. Look at mid ten st I just don't think their defense is great so I think this will be an offensive game. The raiders have a nice home field advantage but I think that hurts dasher. He will be pumped and a little rusty that might mean a few early mistakes the Trojans can capitalize on. The raiders defense gives up an average of 23 points per game over the last four years but dasher lead raider offense last year scored over 30 points per game and averages well over 25points over the last four years. BUT the trojans have averaged over 30 the last three years. Of course I expect that to go down without Brown but if you have not seen Hampton then you don't know about his mobility. Hampton has starting experience so he knows this offense and can make it move. So even though they lost brown the return experience at o-line some good running backs but questions at receiver. Both defenses have holes but I think this coach for Troy makes up for some holes because he seems to know the raiders game plan. Big game, interesting game but I'll take the points because I think the raiders are over valued because Dashers return. He could come out have a Robinson type night but I'll risk it.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Morris]

Took Troy +3' too. GL!

 

[Irish]

Miss tenn /Troy OVER (30) 2nd half.

Rust should be off dasher and it should puck up a but. The no huddle should speed up the pace.

Cheers
Irish

Morris good luck to you too.

 

[Irish]

MLB add- Rays (ML) and Twins (ML)

UCF (-12.5) over UAB
They first thing that jumps out is why so high with the line. Then I see UCF is 6-1 against UAB of recent. Both teams are replacing the QB but losing Webb hurts. Lot more than Hodges. I like the UCF defense in this spot. They give up about 25 points per game over the past three years but are strong against the run. The golden knights also have the ability to create turnover and that could come into play with the UAB quarterback. The UCF offense looks pretty good, they returned 8th 10 on the o-line and that group has been looking better as the season moves on. That's VERY good because the stable of UCF running backs are very talented and I think Harvey has a big game. UAB has been giving over 4 yards per run over the past few years which means sustained drives and should me points. Both teams have had time off to prepare and both are hungry for this game. Now with time off I have to LOVE George O'Leary and his 87 wins over Callaway and his 11. I mean honestly even with Webb at QB he still only had 5 wins last year, the year befor I think they were 4-8. So this group of kids just does not know the winning feeling. Last season UCF went to a bowl, but they have been smacked by the NCAA. Still UCF is the better team going in the right direction. As a home favorite UCF is 15-11-1 over the last ten years. UAB is 25-24 as a road dog over the past ten years. That's misleading because last year UAB was 1-5 as a road dog ATS, UCF was 3-1 as a home fav ATS and UAB 3-4 as a road dog ATS two years ago. So I like UCF at home. Still twelve is a big number but I don't think UAB slows down UCF enough to keep it close. UAB is going to come to play but UCF will be more efficient. As much respect for the dragons offensive and defensive lines I still think UCF should push them off the ball. The knights should get ahead and then take advantage of some poor throws from a QB that IMO is not impressive with his reads or delivery.

So angry about the second half over all looks good with midd tenn st having the ball and onthe 40 looking to score but a hold and a bad sack and then it was 3rd and 30. Oh well.

Cheers
Irish

 

[el JB]

took UCF as well ....BOL to US:00hour

 

[bert07]

GL Irish
took troy after reading your write up

might do the same with UCF, and I see 11.5!

 

[Irish]

Thanks El JB, glad it panned out bert07. Good luck to you both.

Kansas st (+11) over Nebraska
Ok two teams that have not lost this year. Kst has not played a road game yet, so they are used to the game day experience which is relaxing for them and a relaxed team is a dangerous team. Both teams have not played anyone of substance. Kst beat ixia and Nebraska beat Washington. However the cornhuskers have looked more impressive in their wins. The question is how does Nebraska play on the road before the Texas game with a ton of hype on them to run the table. In the past five years Nebraska has played Texas three times. Before the texas game Nebraska has only won two and lost one. Of those two wins one was by eight against Colorado last year before the big 12 championship against Texas and the other was a 18 point win against yep you guessed it Kansas st in Kansas. Ok so why kansas state? Well this play scares me a lot and goes against the thought of Nebraska is a much better team. Still 11-12 isn't a trap for money on Kansas state given how much Nebraska has beaten team by, if fact it makes it very tempting under two TD's to go with the Nebraska. Nebraska has super duper freshman Martinez, this kid is a runner. He gas given the corn heads ideas of Frazier or crouch. Coming off a bad game last week I am sure he will have everything going tonight. He has 9 guys around him that played this Kansas st team last year. Last year kansas state played Nebraska tough, the fumbled on the one and missed a chippy field goal to lose 17-3. Even though they played them well in Lincoln they still only managed THREE points. Nebraska is 6-7 as an away favorite over the past two years under Pelini. Kansas state is 2-4 as a home dog. But to be fair they are 2-1 under Snyder. In fact when Snyder coached Kansas st was 6-1 in seven years. Last year Kansas st average 4 yards per rush while Nebraska averaged 2.2. Against Nebraska last season Kansas state out gained them in total and held them to 101 yards rushing and 19 yards passing. I worry about Coffman at quarterback. I just do not think this kid has talent but he does havesome management skills and he will pull it down and run. The offensive line returns eight of ten from last year and under snyder they have been opening up big holes for Thomas. The bye helps Thomas get healthy and this kid is the heart beat of the offense. If the running game gets bottles up he is a good receiver out of the backfield. Now TEN of the last THIRTEEN the HOME team has won but that's right Kansas state has lost the last four games against Nebraska. Still to be fair they were killed by Nebraska under the different coach under Snyder the margins we 25-27 and 17-3 both at Nebraska. Kansas state is 94-22-1 at home under Snyder but 15-30 against top 25 teams and 16-11 off a bye. Those are all SU and not extremely impressive. Off a bye Pelini is 4-1 so again Nebraska looks solid. All in all I like Kansas st because I like the coaching, homefield, no pressure, Texas on deck for Nebraska, the home field winners in this series and the best player on the field (Thomas). I am sure some would debate that but the guys very good. A lit of running in this game. I think Nebraska defense is much stronger as a group then Kansas st. This will be a test for both so I'll take the points but Nebraska could open up a can if they get ahead early and force Kansas state to play the pass to catch up. If Nebraska is up by a good margin at half then it might be time to unload on the corn huskers in the second half as Kansas state is not equipped to come back and Coffman cannot handle it. Still kansas st needs to keep things in front of them avoid the big play by Nebraska and they might just have a shot if they can turn this into a ground and pound type game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[el JB]

think alike on Ks st game ....Nebraska usually plays tough but i think this time they won't be as ready to face a tough, rested and hard to beat at home team. If they win it will be by a close margin

 

[AR182]

Irish....

Keep up the good work....

Good luck this week....

 

[Irish]

Gonna ride two unders tonight.

Neb/KSt UNDER 47.5

MLB
SF/ATL UNDER 6.5

Good Luck

Thanks AR

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Boys not sure if I'll have time to post but in the fourth quarter in Nebraska is getting points I will unload on them. Just as I posted Coffman is BAD and being down they need him and it will get ugly. I am hoping my under holds up.

Cheers
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this weekend Irish!

 

[Irish]

UCONN (-5) over Rutgers
Ok so this is a pretty interesting match up. IMO UCONN is the better team but Rutgers plays very well at home on big boy TV. Questions at QB for Rutgers, do the go with experience and the injuries or inexperience and a bit less gun shy. Rutgers rarely loses many in a row let alone three but I just think this team is in trouble. But a team in trouble normally just starts swinging for the fence and that could be bad for UCONN backers. Still UCONN will bring pressure regardless who in under center because either way getting to the quarterback is a must. UCONN normally has a pretty good defensive push and Rutgers line just is not suited to stop a blitz. UCONN brings the nations 4th best rusher and than means I give the advantage to UCONN in the o-line department. Looks like a switch at QB which is graet because I just think Frazier is over thinking every throw. Endres seems to have a better handle of the offense and as seen last week the guy can manage the offense and move the ball consistently while being able to read coverage. With Endres under center, todman in the backfield and the blitz getting to Rutgers QB. I think the end tips toward UCONN in this game. Big east opener is big for both but UCONN is just more impressive and last night taught me when you have a question give more credit to the better team. Rutgers lost to tulane and UCONN beat vandy by 20. Three of the last five between these two have been decided by 4 points or less. As much respect as I have for what Greg has done for the knights they are starting to rebuild and UCONN has a bit more in talent and it should Show up.

Oklahoma st (-24) over La Laff
Ok well Oklahoma st has won the last 6 between these two teams. Still those cowboys teams are not those cowboys. Still over those games they have one by an average of 25 points per game. Okie st is 5-1 in road openers. They are 3-0 as a road favorite ATS. The rajun Cajuns are 0-8 against top 25 teams and they have some issues in the talent department under center. Okie st has Texas tech but the Cajuns have Troy so each got divisional games up coming. I still think the A&M game is the difference. I think the come from behind win results in a lot if confidence. I like kendral hunter to be too quick in misdirecting for Louisiana. A lot of points for okie st considering they know they should win by showing up. I like the enterence into the top 25. That might get them interested in playing hard to get lower considering they were expected to have a rebuilding year. Okie st should get on top and as the Cajuns press the cowboys keep pulling away until it's not a game and the announcers are talking about Cajun food.

Ncst (-10) over BC
Ok if you have been backing BC over the past two weeks like I have you have learned one thing. The defense is good but the offense is terrible. The offense being bad puts the defense on the field all day and they get tired and then boom goes the dynamite. Now a bad item is O'Brien is 0-3 against BC his former team. That being said I think this is a better team plying t home against a bad offense. Don't get me wrong, I love the BC line and running back plus I like their defense but collectively they just are not there. Teams load the box and BC can't do anything. O'Brien gets his first win this weekend against BC and I think as the defense gets worn down they cover the number.

Oregon (-34.5) over Washington st
I don't think this is enough here so I think it looks odd. Oregon has out gained Washington about 500 to 250 the past three years. Last three years 55-34, 63-14, & 52-6. And I just think Washington is a dumpster fire. Oregon before a bye may (will) take this game easy buy I still think at half speed they can cover this number even on the road. Not like Washington st does not have guys on the team. They returned 8 on offense and 7 on defense. The question I have is how the head coach STILL have a job. He is 3-22 all three wins coming at home but if you look at the last two years it is really sad. Washington average 12 points on offense and gave up an average of 40 over the past two years under this guy. All of this screams ducks so it also screams Oregon plays like trash and gets a 3 td win. However I love that the ducks jumped Boise with last weeks win. That shows them they have to be impressive or they could get jumped. To much speed and I think James has a heisman day and Varner comes in and does the same. They will half hearted run the offense and the holes will still be there.

Michigan (4.5) over Michigan st
Home field is nice. Games have been decided by small amount of points and both defenses have not impressed. Offensive show and I'll take the most impressive offensive player in Robinson. They will spy him but I think he is too quick for it and can get the edge. Michigan has lost last two and should be hungry.

Indiana (-23) over Ohio st
Indiana has been impressive on offense. Pryor is banged up and I think this is just too much chalk. I know it's at Ohio st where they play very well but last year it was a 33-14 game. I think this is a better team and they can stay with in the number. Ohio st has won the last 15 and this should be no different but Indiana has a lot of fight and they will try to keep it respectable.

Pitt (ML) over Nd
It is funny Pitt is getting points because ND has won the last two in south bend. I am so against Pitt it is also funny. They have no line, a questionable QB, injuries and soft defense. Sounds a lot like Nd with the exception of the QB play. Look at who Pitt has lost to, Utah and Miami. That's not bad but they have not beaten any good teams. I just think this game does not have a clear cut better team and people have given Nd too much credit for a BC win and I have already said what I think about them. They lost to the good teams they have played and in fact only beaten BAD teams with name recognition BC and PURDUE. This will be a dog fight and I like Pitt to win but I'll take the points and play them on the ML.

Miss st (-5.5) over Houston
Too many injuries, not a lot of confidence and the bulldog team that is playing tougher.

Arizona st (ML) over Washington
Emotion overload for Washington off the win last week. That being said they have looked like trash against everyone else. Arizona st has won the last six games against Washington. Arizona state has a tough game before the bye week. They have played three (when they played) ranked teams in a row. Both teams have a lot to prove and in these games I normally take the better QB at home but locker has no one around him and that will again hurt them in a must win fir the devils. If you remember last year Washington beat USC then lost to Stanford by 20. Should be a fight and I have to like the overall talent on one team rather than the one player on the other.

Two drive up the score to get recognition.
Boise (-39) over Toledo
They got jumped after a win and the coach even said he thinks they need to be more impressive in wins.

Nevada (-39) over SJS
Again they need big wins or they get no attention. They normally play very well at home. Navada had FOUR players rush for 100 yards against SJS. Nevada is 7-1 and average 42 points and 505... That's average!

VT (-24) over C.Mich
VT is starting to get some pride back. They are 32-5 all time vs MAC. VT average score against non BCS schools at home...... 42-7! Better teams with that fact but home with an edge on running and defense. Go hokies.

Still cannot believe a Nebraska draw play went for so many yards and TDs but man what bad angles every player took for kansas state.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Not Too Much time to post
Penn St (-9) over Ill
Home field should be big and PSU wont overlook anyone right now. They run around the Illini defense.

Fresni (-9.5) over Hawaii
Fresno is the better team with the hoime field. I just dont think hiughley of the hawaians.

Utah (-7.5) over Iowa st
Trap game but Utah is well coached and should be looking at the cyclones and they have the edge in every postion with the excpetion of home field. They should dominate the lines.

Tenn (+10.5) over Georgia
Just think the Vols fight hard and they might be a little pist they left on in death vally or they might be emotional gone but I think Georgia is just in a tail spin.

Arkansas (-6) over A&M
Guys remember last year? This was the same type of situation and Mallet just hammered them through the air. I think he picks the aggies apart through the air and Johnson throws a couple to the wrong team. That Okie state performance is what A&M fans should get used to, almost but shot in the foot.

S.Carolina (+7.5) over Bama
Home field, good runner, bama has battled week in and out, and getting a TD. I like that. Garcia needs to make good throws to the nig WR because Bama has a seconfdary that can be taken advantage of especially with the new run ning game of the cocks. Don't beat them selfs... hahaha, well don;t do it over and over again like last game. They have had time to get ready and they should have an all or nothing and Ill go with the TD.

FSU (+6) over Miami
This is a play because this is a big game and Harris seems to toss some picks in almost every game. FSU should be able to stay with them in this game and I am sure the Noles will have some fans in the stands.

Florida (-6.5) over LSU
LSU is terrible, they should have lost last week. QB issues and they have been home for a long time. Gators play well at home and they dhoulf stop the tigers offense flat if they spy the QB.

I normally like to write up with more detail but I am not sure when Ill be by a computer for the rest of the day... if I can I will.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Cie]

GL today:toast: