Week 7 Card (Oct 8th -11th)

[Irish]

North Carolina (-7) over ND
The tar heels are a bit over valued right now considering they beat UConn and Miami recently. ND has been winning a few games but lets not praise the Irish rebirth just yet. Mich, Purdue, Stanford and SDS are not really teams that jump out at me this season as powers. Another fun little tid bit about ND is they have been in the home setting for all four wins this season. Only going on the road once so far and in that game MSU won by 16. I am not saying ND is terrible because they are playing better but I am just not sold because they have not seen a truely fast good defense. Now looking at UNC I see them a little over valued because they beat UConn on the score board but the huskies moved the ball a little too well for my liking against a team that had only one option left to use and that was the running back. What I really like is UNC is a very good home team and they believe in Davis. He has grabbed a few solid recruits over the few years and the talent left for him and the guys he brought in are pretty talented. The heels finally got the running game on track last weekend having two backs go for 100 plus and that does not include Greg Little (Who I think they should move back to WR since they have some guys that can carry the ball). Sexton is throwing about 60% but he is doing the little things right by keeping the turn overs down and hitting Nicks and Tate down field. They are two very talented WR and can make a ND secondary looking confused all day. What I really like is the UNC defense against the ND offense. UNC's defense came up with three interceptions and and held UConn to just two field goals through the first three quarters, and special teams chipped in with three blocked punts. Now ND might have been given a false sense of confidence after the few gaes they won but this will be in a very tough enviorment against a very fast defense. Clausen has been good but has thrown 6 picks to his 12 TD's and without a running game the UNC defense can play deeper and get the turn overs to come their way. The front four of UNC is IMO far to fast and strong for the ND line and they should be all over the back field and moving Clausen out off the pocket where his is far less accurate. Even though ND has made improvements over the past few weeks they are not ready for good teams. The UNC offensive line should move ND off the ball, the heels o-line is starting to come together as a unit and that is a big deal considering that running game was the biggest concern for Davis coming into the season. Now that they have the mix of pass and run, ND defense will get exposed and the Irish offense will struggle because they will not have the luxury of the home field. Plus I expect the UNC defense to send a whole bunch of different looks at ND, get them confussed and they fall apart. I do not think this ND team has the ability to battle on the road and UNC should take over like they did against UConn.

Oregon (-17) over UCLA
This is a nice spot for the ducks after getting it handed to them against USC. It is a PAC 10 battle at home and they always play better at home. UCLA beat a terrible Wash St team but this is still a bruin team that gave up a ton of yards to BYU through the air. Also they lost to Arizon by 21 and the ducks (even with their issues) are IMO a better team than Arizona. This is only the second game for UCLA away and they might be in bad shape considering they threw a goose egg up on the scoreboard in thier first game away. The Ducks let Sanchez just throw all night and Craft will not be so lucky. Craft is throwing about 54% and has one more Int to his TD's. Even though USC threw on the ducks secondary they still have a talented group back their and I expect them to rebound and have a few picks off a QB that has thrown some gifts this season. The fact is for UCLA Bell is their only option. The UCLA running back is their best play maker, even if he is not 100% if the ducks key him they will shut down a lot of what UCLA is going to try to do. This comes down to the home field advantage and the ducks needing to rebound. They should be able to stop the bruins enough to get ahead and take hope away from UCLA. Once they take hope they should look to move the ball as much as they can because that coaching staff knows that they need all the positive game experience they can get. The O-line should open holes for LaBlount and Johnson and the WR's wshould make big plays down field.

Cheers
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

like me Irish...gl this weekend Sir

 

[Blackman]

Plan to be on UNC as well, just waiting to see if the line drops a bit.

Best of luck this week Irish.

 

[Irish]

Fla Atl (+3.5) over Troy
This game SCREAMS Troy, but then why just 3 points? Troy has a better record and they have played twice the talent of Fla Atl. Troy also smacked Mid Tenn St, and they beat Fla Atl by 1. So why just three points, home field advantage is nice for FAU but is it that nice. The Trojans have done a good job mixing up the run and the pass as they averaging 180 on the ground and 232 through the air. FAU has struggled to contain the run, which could be an advantage for Troy. Now the Owl could take advantage of the Trojans secondary but I am kinda tired of hearing about what Rusty Smith did last season. This season he has struggled with consistancy and his production has dropped a lot. Completing 46% and throwing 7 picks to only 4 TD's ins not good. In fact, Rusty Smith has thrown no touchdowns and six interceptions during the last three-game span. So their are issues on the FAU offensive side of the ball, their are issues on FAU defensive side of the ball, AND FAU upset Troy last season to clinch their first Sun Belt Conference title in school history. So why three points? Could it Be that Troy played Saturday and the Owls have had a week and change off. Are the trojans so tired after playing three days ago that they cannot get back into the gameday routine. I don't think that that fact alone is enough for FAU to ply with Troy. I think Troy has an offense that is far more efficent, BUT after losing on a hail mary the FAU coach went crazy on his team. Coach Schnel was all over his boys and that team should respond to him. He is a good coach and knows the game, this FAU team is his baby and he just beat it for failing a test at school. Tonight I think the line is off so I will take the home team, the pissed off coach and an Owl team to battle because they do not want to lose two in a row in the conference.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

irish...

leaning to n. car but haven't played it yet...

good luck this week..

 

[in the black]

Fla Atl (+3.5) over Troy
So why three points? Could it Be that Troy played Saturday and the Owls have had a week and change off. Are the trojans so tired after playing three days ago that they cannot get back into the gameday routine. I don't think that that fact alone is enough for FAU to ply with Troy

Cheers
Irish

Irish Troy has been off 11 days.They last played on Sept 27th at Ok.St.

BOL enjoy your write ups.:toast:

 

[Irish]

in the black
wow how the weeks are flying by.. I love college football. I totally forgot about the Okie St/ A&M game. Thanks for the heads up... now I am really wondering about the 3.5 points???

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

FAU/Troy Under 51
This game was out of the park last year 31-38. Troy was a far better team with a very heads up QB and an offense that moved the ball against some very good teams. FAU was riding Rusty Smith and behind his arm and Pierre running the ball the owls were tough on offense. Now Troy was hit by graduation and the Owls were hit by overhype. This game looks in the 40's to me as each team struggles with consistancy and have turnover issues. Also both teams will want to run to take some heat off the qbs.

Cheers
Irish

 

[tulah]

Hey Irish,
Oregon should be able to mop the floor with UCLA.
UCLA is clearly in a rebuilding year.

I like the under in the FAU game tonight too just haven't played it yet

GL this week

 

[Irish]

Miami (-15) over UCF
This is a great spot for Miami after two tough loses. They have shown over the past two games there is talent in Miami they are just young and a little under coached. At Boston College the knights got completely killed in every aspect of the game. They are not a very good road team and they certainly have shown that when they are up against it they fold up. The did play interstae rival USF pretty well but I think after watching USF they are a bit overrated. UCF has QB issues as both QB's are being rotated without any notice. Ronnie Weaver is he focus of the UCF offense and the speedy Miami defense should get on top of him and by doing that they will force the QB to beat them and that will not happen. The Knights are last in C-USA in scoring (18.4 points per game), passing (131.2 yards per game) and total offense (282.4). They are tied for last in red-zone success (68.8 percent) and last in third-down conversions (31.6 percent). Miami will have a bit more ability to score with ease this week. They have moved the ball against two pretty good defenses in FSU and UNC. It will not be a cake walk by any means because UCF has the conference's No. 1 run defense (104.4 yards per game) and ranks third in total defense (362.8). The Knights have picked off a league-leading 10 passes and recorded 10 sacks through the first five games. UCF has lost three games this season and two of them were on the road against BC and a poor UTEP team. This will be a struggle and unfortunatly they will be exposed on defense. BC had 411 yards in that game and I think Miami should put up similar numbers. South florida had over 500 yards in that game so I am thinking those defensive numbers might be wrong or they are heavy on games against poor talent. The secondary for UCF is where they are most open to getting beat so Marve needs to show up and play well. Both Miami QB's have gotten some time and played pretty well but considering the team speed Marve gives them the better shot in this game to score and score often. I think the Miami offense will continue to play well and their defense shows up and gives the knights too much speed and power to handle leaving them going three and out too many times. Those stalled drives will get the Miami offense back on the field and at home they should look to score. They need a win this week and considering they are coming off two loses they should be ready. This looks a lot like the game Miami played against A&M... UCF is a team with less talent and speed and is just not on the same level as Miami. Anything could happen but if the hurricanes show up hungry (which they should) they have the edge.

HAHA... FAU, nice job on the missed snap and the fumbled kick. You take away those points and it is 16-17. Not to say Troy wouldn't have scored but they would have been in the game. At least they held enough to cover the under but again it should not have been an issue if FAU did not shoot themselves in the foot.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Georgia (-13) over Tenn
Yes this is a tough SEC game, BUT this is Georgia off a loss at home against a bad Tenn team that was was in a dog fight against No. Ill. Now I don't want to say Tenn's offense is bad but they only scored 12 against a MAC team in Rocky Top. This is a team that allowed over twenty points to W.Mich and Minny. It might not be the best time for Tenn to experiment with a different qb. Both qbs are completing about 56% of thier passes but neither have numbers that show they are throwing it deep. That could be the O-line not giving the qb enough time to let deep routes develope but either way that plays into Georgias blitz package and allows the bulldogs to committ a safety in the box. This is nice because the Vols best players are their running backs and with a safety in the box that allows the bulldogs the option to attack the QB and cover the running back. Now we discuss the bulldogs, a team that should come in angry after getting embarassed by Bama. They are home and will play with a lot of energy, they have rested banged up players and have every reason to drop the hammer on Tenn considering they feel disrespected. Tenn does not have the running defense to contain Morano, the best player on Tenn is the safety Berry but the easiest thing for Georgia to do is not to throw his way. Use the speed at WR to drive him deep and play underneath him. Pick on the Vol LB that will be playing tight to the line to help stop the georgia running game. This is a lot of chalk in the SEC but the lack of a coaching staff in Tenn, the Bulldogs off a big loss and being home they should handle this Tenn team. IMO the next offense Co to go is in Tenn, Fulmer is felling the heat and needs a fall guy for his terrible coaching.

Oklahoma (-7) over Texas
Yes Texas is good but they really have not been tested. Colorado was their biggest test but I am still not sold. McCoy is a very good QB and is good at mocing the team down the field but what I like is he is the leading rusher. Texas does not have a very good running game and they will get exposed against a defense that has the talent at LB and secondary to stop him advancing the ball. Oklahoma is far too efficent to be stopped enough to keep texas in the game. Bradford completes 78% of his passes and has 12 TD's to his 3 picks. He has a running game Murray and Brown that is very tough to stop. Plus they have a huge advantage at O-line. They are big, strong and can move which means Texas must put extra guys in the play to stop the run or Okie will just grind them down. If Texas decides to stop the run then Bradford will pick them apart through the air. The concern K have is Cincy stayed with Okie but what stops that concern is how Okie handed it to TCU. When Okie decided to focus and give TCU all their attention, TCU was just helpless against them. That is what I think Texas will feel. The long horns lack of a run and the ability for Okie to score means Okie wants a shoot out and Texas will not be able to keep up over the whole game. The long horns can stay in this game but Okie should pull away behind the O-line late in the game.

Penn St (-5) over Wisky
Two tough loses for the badgers lately might have them a little down. They have the home field advantage but the mobility of the ohio state QB proved too much for the badger defense. Penn St has a defense that should be able to hold Hill. The Lions also lead the Big Ten in total defense, allowing 250.3 yards per game. Ohio St is a joke when coming to defensive pressure. They always rush 4, thats it and teams that can run get to the second level and the LB's have to stop them. PSU is not so timid on defense. They bring players on the blitz and the wisky line will not hold up. The badgers struggle on the pass and the PSU secondary is string enough to generate turnovers. Then their is the PSU offense against the badgers. Misdirection will be huge and the speed of Penn St should allow them to get past the line of scrimmage and then they should breack long plays. The mistakes Ohio st made will be avoided this week and PSU should be running all day on this defense that may fold if they get on top. It is a tough game because Wisky is hungry but State knows this is what they have to do. Mistakes have killed Wisky in their past two games and those mistakes should hurt them again vs State. Revenge for a loss last year to this badger team should also get PSU motivated to give Wisky a little more than they are equiped to handle. Penn State is averaging 499.7 yards through six games - ninth-best in the nation - and has scored 44.8 points per game to rank seventh in the country. They have beaten Org St, they beat Ill but they are not the best road team. What takes the pressure off a team on the road is the run and PSU pushes 7.8 yards-per-carry average that ranks eighth in the nation. Penn State's defensive front will get a big test from a veteran Wisconsin offensive line that's paving the way for 210.6 yards per game. Stop Hill and Wisky will not be able to move the ball. It is easier said than done but State should hold up against Wisky and stay onto of the badgers in this game.

Ohio St (-19) over Purdue
Purdue is a bad football team. They pulled the QB last week, they have a coach that is done after the season, they have zero defense and what hurt Ohio St in the Wisky game will help them in this game. They are the home team and play well at home. Another game for Benie should show more improvement. Pryor has the passing game working and is running when he gets the chance to keep drives moving. Only rushing 4 players should free up the secondary to pick off the QB who threw a lot of picks against Penn St. The Ohio St defense should have more speed in the secondary and should be able to get their hands on some passes. Sheets is not the same player as last year. The boilermakers are looking to spread the buckeyes out and that will not happen because they do committ players to the rush. Purdue is just on a downward turn and this is no answer. The home field will be a big boost for the bukeyes and the boilermaker will not have enough answers or ability to stay with them even spotting a lot of chalk.

Texas Tech (-21) over Neb
The huskers showed they cannot stop the pass. They have been hammered against the pass and this game should be very interesting. If Texas Tech throws the ball well they should just out run the huskers. Now Texas Tech has been known to crap the bed in big games, but I do not think Neb will give them enough resistance. A big question in my mind is Texas Tech has played no one and it could come back to bite them. Considering the amount of chalk in this game Neb is a good play but looking how bad Neb is against the pass and how hard it is to defend the Tech spread they should jump on this team. Home field advantage really is not that important in my thoughs here because I do not think it will push TT to play harder. But what I really like is after being hammered by Mizzou the cornhuskers have their FIRST road game against Tech. That might be enough to completely shut the husker team out of rythem and if they are not firering at 100% then they will be hard pressed to stay with a Texas Tech team that now has an team that a win means something. Hitting the running back out of the backfield on passes should be a great play because Neb will be on their heels all night and they will be scrambling to cover Woods.

ECU (-5) over UVA
What can I say abvout this game. I like that ECU had some time to get it together. I like that UVA is overvalued after shutting out Maryland. I also like that that shut out means Skip Holtz has something to get his boys motivated to play against. We have seen ECU play VERY well when up against a challange and in this game they should show up and take it to a UVA team that even though they played well last week still got blown out by Duke. The the defense be as aggressive as possible and UVA will make a lot of mistakes. Just as the terps were a bit fat and happy last week after beating Clemson, the wahoos should still be yelling about the beating they handed Maryland.

Ariz (-6) over Stanford
The wildcats are playing well, they need this PAC 10 win with big games coming up. They need to be focused or Stanford at home will be a problem. Stoops has one job, stop the great white hope at running back. If they focus on shutting him down then they will leave it up to the stanford QB to beat them and that just will not happen. The wildcats have the offense to beat stanford by far more than this, but they need to turn drives into points. Sometimes Ariz gets overly confident and tries to just show up and beat teams. When that happens they do not focus on execution and then then sputter out and fail to score. When they are ready to play they have a nice mix on offense and a QB that can put points up on the board. If the cats score about 28 points they should have no problem. This is not a ton of points for this team but it will be enough for them to handle the chalk they are giving. Temas nowadays have trouble playing solid ball week in and out so that is the biggest test for Ariz, show up with the work effort. They do that and they should not be in any position for a back door by stanford.

Cheers
Irish

 

[RAYMOND]

like penn st and ari

 

[Master Capper]

Im more than likely going to play Georgia this week just waiting to see how far the line will fall (I am getting 11.5 now), as barring turnovers, I cannot see Vols putting much on the scoreboard.

 

[thomas_howard]

With you on Georgia! Surprised the line is dropping given how bad the Vols have been so far...:shrug:

 

[Irish]

Wake (-2.5) over Clemson
Clemson holds a 56-16-1 advantage in the all-time series. Bowden is 7-2 in his career against Wake Forest. Wake played so badly last week there is only one way to go. Skinner, who led the Football Bowl Subdivision in completion percentage at 72.4 last season, had his streak of 133 passes without an interception shattered by throwing four picks against the Midshipmen. Wake is a battle tested team beat FSU and Miss, while Clemson has been tested once and blown out, they they lose to a well playing terp team. This also marks the first rod game of the season for Clemson and going into Wake during a black out might be a tough place to start. Considering both teams are coming off a loss both teams will be hungry but if that is the case Wake is the better team. The Clemson tigers are a bit overrated, this year and last year they have had talent but have not come through in big games and I have to think that the coaching staff is getting a little tight. That means a big dose of Spiller and Davis. Can Wake play defense well enough to stop those players. That will be the key for them in this game considering Harper has not played nearly up to potential. The Clemson defense has not been as smart against teams allowing less talented teams to mix them up and beat them runing and passing. Clemson with two loses might be feeling a little burned and need a shot in the arm, but they only have one loss in the ACC. Wake has zero ACC loses and did not even know how to play with Navy. It looked like that demon deacon team was out coached in every aspect and that should be a great reason for Wake to be ready to play in every aspect tonight. Being at home you know Wake will be hungry, the question is can they use the offense to get Clemson behind. If they do that like Bama then Clemson cannot run as much as they want and the offense will be struggling. Wake needs to use the blue print they have seen in the Clemson loses, load the box and shut down the run. Harper will be called upon to win this game and his confidence is not where it needs to be to lead this team.

Cheers
Irish

 

[gardenweasel]

on wake...love the way this sets up....

g.l.

 

[Irish]

Houston (-18.5) over UAB
This game should be a barn burner. The Cougars are 110th nationally at stopping the run and are terrible at stopping teams from converting. The have been able to win games on offense. They have the #2 passingl attack in the country and is averaging 37 points a game. OFFENSE is key for houston....The Blazers are 115th in the nation in pass defense (283.2 yards per game) and 113th in total defense (461.3). Can houston pass and run is the question and they answered that a little bit posting 200 plus yards against ECU on the ground. Having that ability to run and pass will make it impossible for the blazers to stop houston and they will score on a lot of drives. UAB will be a little down after Memphis came back to win against them in a game where the blazers and Tigers traded points all game. Memphis is not nearly as efficent as houston and the blazers will again be hard pressed to find answers for houston on defense. How do I think UAB will have no answer, well because last season Houston beat this team 48-10. UAB ranks 4th in C-USA in rushing, averaging 174.0 ypg and 5.4 yards per carry with 10 TD's rushing. The passing game has struggled, however, averaging 212.5 yards with 7 TDs and 6 picks. A ton of that rushing yardage comes from the QB who has a little Pat White in him but is not nearly the type of player that can take over a game. So what we have here is a cougar team that is not good on defense at stopping the run and a blazer team that needs to run inorder to continue drives. Then we have a UAB team that is completely terrible on defense against the run and especially the pass against a team that is very good through the air and is establishing a running game. AND We have the home field advantage in this conference showdown. What I see is UAB holding their own using the run to start the game and as it goes on the cougars are just too effective against the lack of blazer defense for UAB to continue running. Then once they have to pass to keep up they start to make the mistakes that have hurt them in the past. The receivers drops, the interceptions and the poor throws should stop them and avoid pressure being put on the bad houston 3rd down defense. Then the cougars can continue to move on offense and turn this into a 20 point plus win as the 4th quarter turns into a game where UAB just has cannot come back and they just do not continue the fight.

MLB play.... Dodgers (ML) over Philly

Might have a play on the over/under later but that number looks a little high because I am not sure even though both lack defense is the blazers score.

Cheers
Irish

 

[bert07]

Wake (-2.5) over Clemson
Clemson holds a 56-16-1 advantage in the all-time series. Bowden is 7-2 in his career against Wake Forest. Wake played so badly last week there is only one way to go. Skinner, who led the Football Bowl Subdivision in completion percentage at 72.4 last season, had his streak of 133 passes without an interception shattered by throwing four picks against the Midshipmen. Wake is a battle tested team beat FSU and Miss, while Clemson has been tested once and blown out, they they lose to a well playing terp team. This also marks the first rod game of the season for Clemson and going into Wake during a black out might be a tough place to start. Considering both teams are coming off a loss both teams will be hungry but if that is the case Wake is the better team. The Clemson tigers are a bit overrated, this year and last year they have had talent but have not come through in big games and I have to think that the coaching staff is getting a little tight. That means a big dose of Spiller and Davis. Can Wake play defense well enough to stop those players. That will be the key for them in this game considering Harper has not played nearly up to potential. The Clemson defense has not been as smart against teams allowing less talented teams to mix them up and beat them runing and passing. Clemson with two loses might be feeling a little burned and need a shot in the arm, but they only have one loss in the ACC. Wake has zero ACC loses and did not even know how to play with Navy. It looked like that demon deacon team was out coached in every aspect and that should be a great reason for Wake to be ready to play in every aspect tonight. Being at home you know Wake will be hungry, the question is can they use the offense to get Clemson behind. If they do that like Bama then Clemson cannot run as much as they want and the offense will be struggling. Wake needs to use the blue print they have seen in the Clemson loses, load the box and shut down the run. Harper will be called upon to win this game and his confidence is not where it needs to be to lead this team.

Cheers
Irish

great write up
really helps me see this game in a different light
thanks

 

[Irish]

Houston/UAB UNDER 68
Waiting to get this as high as it would go. I do not think UAB stays in this oine as the cougars run away.

Re-hit
Wake *ML) over Clemson
Had to do it now that I was already on -2.5, it seems smart if I like it to make it a big play becausse I expected them to win anyway. Seems someone knows something I am not seeing and the kicker being hurt does not sway me here.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Louisville (-7) over Memphis
The Cardinals had 508 yards of total offense against UConn, the Tigers defense could not stop UAB. Louisville is among the worst in the nation in red zone efficiency. Louisvilles defense will be tested tonight, Memphis has the 16th ranked offense in the nation. This is the first road game for Louisville and that scares me a bit but I just cannot see the Tigers stopping the cards. Arkelon Hall has been a good enough QB but he still is not the most accurate QB and he has been known to make bad decisions when throwing the ball into tight coverage. Now the Tigers are 3-3 but that is a little overrated, they lost the first three and won the next three against some pretty poor teams. This team lost to Rice and Marchall so I think the true question is how will louisville handle themselves in this game. I like that Cantwell has had time to rest his ankle and he gets a big wr back in action. With the addition of the WR and the size of Churchchester they should move the ball on passes and then they should be effective running. I like the L'Ville defense to really outmatch the tigers and shut them down a ton. Louisville has shown a speedy and powerful front seven but have really shown gaps in the secondary. They need to correct that because the spread tiger offense will look to throw it deep if given the chance. I just do not think Memphis is a very good team and against teams that are decent they have no chance. I am not saying Louisville is decent, but they looked ok against UConn and I really liked them when they played KState. They have the ability but they also have a way of just not coming into play to start games. Cantwell should be solid hitting his WR's but looking his target off might give him the ability to go deep, he stares his guys down and safeties don't allow deep plays to happen. Play action and the screen should kill this undersize no blitzing Tiger defense.

Cheers
Irish