Week 7 Card (Oct 8th -11th)
- Thread starter Irish
- Start date
Nice start to the week on Wake and the Houston plays (nice comeback by the Cougs 
) GL on the rest of your plays. Wanted to play the Cards tonight early on @-6 but couldn't pull the trigger on this Jeckyl/Hyde group. Still may play them at a half unit @-6.5 :shrug:
With you tomorrow on NC, Okla, PennSt, and ECar. Opposite on the Arz/Stanf contest. BOL on your card Irish. Make it a productive one :00hour
) GL on the rest of your plays. Wanted to play the Cards tonight early on @-6 but couldn't pull the trigger on this Jeckyl/Hyde group. Still may play them at a half unit @-6.5 :shrug: With you tomorrow on NC, Okla, PennSt, and ECar. Opposite on the Arz/Stanf contest. BOL on your card Irish. Make it a productive one :00hour
Thanks all, War it's chalktastic! haha
Okie St (+13.5) over Mizz
Missouri is averaging 568.8 yards this season - third in the country -- led by a passing attack that's putting up 375.6 yards per game. The Tigers are second in the nation in scoring (53.4 points), and they've had 17 touchdown drives that have taken less than two minutes. Oklahoma State has been dominant on the ground, averaging the fourth-most rushing yards in the Bowl Subdivision (315.2), and led by sophomore Kendall Hunter (147.6 ypg). Oklahoma State's defense ranks 51st in the nation (338.6 ypg), while Missouri's (376.6) is 84th. Missouri has won five of six in the series, with the last meeting coming in 2005. In the teams' last six games, five have been decided by a touchdown or less - three in overtime. So what can we say, well we know Mizzou is just right out of a video game good on offense. But they did give up 42 points to Ill even though they hammered Nebraska but Nebraska is rubbish. Great spot for Okie to come into the game because the tigers play Texas next weekend. But who the hell has Okie state played A&M? Troy? Houston? Mizz St? Not exactly teams we plan on seeing in the sugarbowl any time soon. Okie St has been lighting it up on these scout teams ans they have been showing one thing I like and that is being able to make the offense effcient. Not a well oiled maching because Okie st is not going to keep the tigers off the field but they score home runs and on drives. They have the same explosive dynamic that makes Mizzou great and that is Robinson can lead a ten play drive for points or he can hit a home run off the bat. The cowboys have about 10 TD's of two or less plays. So this is going to be a game that will come down to who has the ball last. I think Okie has not been tested, but they should have enough to play with this team as Illinois did in week one. I do not expect the Okie St defense to shut down the Tigers as I do not think the Mizzou defense will contain the cowboys. I think this will be a game of who hurts themselves on offense. Who comes in and has the drops, who is not ready to play, and who is overly confident. If both teams come in and avoid those questions this will be another one of those games that will be really fun to watch. I think Mizzou was this good last year and Okie gave them a decent game and I expect this Okie team is better and can offer more of a challange because it seems like the Okie st coach game plans this game well.
Small play
Ariz St (+26) over USC
I am not sure, and have not heard anything about the subject but I think Carpenter might give it a go. He is a tough kid off two hard loses, this is the last big game of his career IMO. The back-up QB for Ariz st was a player recruited by USC and if he has talent now would be a nice story to write himself. If he cannot go then the sundevils are in big trouble but I still think this might have backdoor written on it if the trojans get ahead and don't have a reason to keep their starters in the game. Remember the trojans are banged up and if they have a 30 point lead why would Carroll keep those starters in there and risk anything. HOWEVER Arizona State also has other problems. The Sun Devils have just 75 rushing yards in the last two games combined. The sundevils might not even have the offense to even jump into the backdoor. I think USC is a very good play here, at home, looking to run it up because they need voters to go their way and really nothing on the doorstep to take focus. They have injuries but nothing tragic so they in all probability will drop the hand of god on the throats of sundevil hopefuls. But this is a lot of chalk, the trojans know they can hammer this team and might be a little unfocused. Arizona will struggle but this is the whole ball of wax for the sundevils so erickson should go in with a nothing to lose attitude and pull out some trickery.
Mich St (-3) over N'Western
This line going down makes me think there are shinanigans abound. The Wildcats hadn't really played anyone until beating Iowa last week, but even that left the Hawkeyes with a three-game losing streak. I know N'Western is looking good but their best weapon Sutton (The senior running back carried the ball 24 times for 77 yards, and also caught six passes for 72 yards. He's averaging 124.0 scrimmage yards per game) is banged up and I think the spartans should be able to run all over them. Ringer should have a very big game but this line looks cattiwampus. I expected after it opened for it to go to like 5 but I was incorrect. This game was an overtime loss for Mich St last year in a barnburner. That should get the coaching staff ready to play considering they have a defensive minded head coach. This defensive coach needs to get all over Sutton, the wildcats use a lot of spread misdirection and the LB's need to read and react to fill the ends and avoid him bouncing it outside. On a different side, I think Mich state is more of a power running game and I think N'Western will have to overload the box as everyteam is starting to do against Ringer. Can I please see Brian Hoyer put together a complete game? The kid has flashes where he looks like he has total control of the ball, offense and game. And then it looks like he has never thrown a football, showing no touch or accuracy. He is a guy that needs to step up, with the type of running game he has there is no excuse for him. Playaction should buy him time and the coach is not asking for him to light up the skies. Just hit the outs off the three or five step drops. The deep middle is normally always open for the TE because the run sucks the LB's and safeties down to help stop. Playaction down the field to the TE should get this N'Western defense burnt for a big play, but I have to wonder if Hoyer could make the trow. Still I think he does enough, while Ringer is the work horse to give the wildcats a little too much to handle.
Kansas (-14) over Colorado
Colorado runs the ball and Kansas is more of a passing team. Kansas almost was shocked by Iowa St and should have their head on straight coming into this contest. The o-line should not have a problem giving Reesing enough time to pick apart a poor Colorado secondary. That being said I think Colorado will be able to push the Kansas defense off the ball and give them some running room. Hawkins signed a nice new contract so he is gonna give a little extra in the game plan. I think a few O-linemen for Colorado are banged up and that should hurt them but not as much as the differences in game plans. I think Kansas gets ahead and if they do that then Colorado cannot grid the ball like they want to and they do not have the track stars to get into a shoot out. But has Kansas showed they have the offensive fire power to blow teams out. I have not seen it so this amount of chalk is a little scary. I still think the scare last week will hurt Colorado more than anything else. Kansas saw they can be beat, they have not really been focused against these bad teams and now they should be and that could prove the difference maker as the game goes on Kansas continues to play with focus and make it to hard for the Buff to stay in the game.
Baylor (-4) over Iowa St
Hang over for Iowa St, they let one go last week and I am sure it still hurts. Baylor is young but they are a good football team. The are lead by Griffin who is a very fun player to watch and could be a player the cyclones cannot handle. Griffin will run and throw on this defense that was light up in the second half against Kansas and are still wondering how they blew that big lead. The bears are a tough home team. Iowa st has now dropped three in a row and two of those games were roadies against poor teams. I think Baylor is a better team than Iowa and UNLV, the spread offense should be problem, they are not the greatest against the pass and considering Griffin knows if it ain't there then tuck and run. Look at Griffin, he has played Wake and Okie and has no picks on the season. These are games where Baylor has to throw because they are behind and Griffin understands that instead of forcing it into coverage he can pull it and gain the yards. I like his decision making and the bears should be on top of the clones down in texas. This is a big game in the Big 12 for these teams standings and Baylor should want to win this one and win it by executing offensively. They have played tougher teams and should be ready for a good but not great Iowa St teams that just have one test under their belt.
Florida (-4) over LSU
I might middle this if the tigers get 7. I like the home field, but I am not sold on the gators after they really did not kill Ark until late in the game. They might have been looking ahead to this but considering it was coming off a loss I thought they would have more focus. Harvin is if-y and that hurts but I am not sure LSU is as good as advertised. I now they beat Auburn but honestly that team have not impressed me either. I am not sure LSU wanted to publically say they wanted to knock out Tim Tebow. He has been less than Hiesman so I think that might wake him up a bit. It should also get the O-line to play a bit stronger. LSU has won 4 of the last 6 but last year it came down to a 14 point comeback for LSU to win. I think that means the gators should be hungry for this win, especially with an SEC loss on the record already. I think this will be a very good game and normally in the SEC with two tough teams I like taking the points but I think florida has the better offense. Yes LSU has a great rushing game but I think they might have a little liability at QB. They have had questions at that position and I think that will come back to hurt them in the swamp. Tebow has got to get all the troops up and ready for this game, both teams have speed, talent and power. Both teams have solid coaching staffs and both teams will be ready for this game. That is why I think it might be a solid middle option. I think florida wins this but not by a whole lot. I doubt I will middle because I like them to cover and they might try to pour it on as Urban has done in the past. Still this will be a game to see if anyone in the SEC can play with a focused Bama squad.
Cheers
Irish
Okie St (+13.5) over Mizz
Missouri is averaging 568.8 yards this season - third in the country -- led by a passing attack that's putting up 375.6 yards per game. The Tigers are second in the nation in scoring (53.4 points), and they've had 17 touchdown drives that have taken less than two minutes. Oklahoma State has been dominant on the ground, averaging the fourth-most rushing yards in the Bowl Subdivision (315.2), and led by sophomore Kendall Hunter (147.6 ypg). Oklahoma State's defense ranks 51st in the nation (338.6 ypg), while Missouri's (376.6) is 84th. Missouri has won five of six in the series, with the last meeting coming in 2005. In the teams' last six games, five have been decided by a touchdown or less - three in overtime. So what can we say, well we know Mizzou is just right out of a video game good on offense. But they did give up 42 points to Ill even though they hammered Nebraska but Nebraska is rubbish. Great spot for Okie to come into the game because the tigers play Texas next weekend. But who the hell has Okie state played A&M? Troy? Houston? Mizz St? Not exactly teams we plan on seeing in the sugarbowl any time soon. Okie St has been lighting it up on these scout teams ans they have been showing one thing I like and that is being able to make the offense effcient. Not a well oiled maching because Okie st is not going to keep the tigers off the field but they score home runs and on drives. They have the same explosive dynamic that makes Mizzou great and that is Robinson can lead a ten play drive for points or he can hit a home run off the bat. The cowboys have about 10 TD's of two or less plays. So this is going to be a game that will come down to who has the ball last. I think Okie has not been tested, but they should have enough to play with this team as Illinois did in week one. I do not expect the Okie St defense to shut down the Tigers as I do not think the Mizzou defense will contain the cowboys. I think this will be a game of who hurts themselves on offense. Who comes in and has the drops, who is not ready to play, and who is overly confident. If both teams come in and avoid those questions this will be another one of those games that will be really fun to watch. I think Mizzou was this good last year and Okie gave them a decent game and I expect this Okie team is better and can offer more of a challange because it seems like the Okie st coach game plans this game well.
Small play
Ariz St (+26) over USC
I am not sure, and have not heard anything about the subject but I think Carpenter might give it a go. He is a tough kid off two hard loses, this is the last big game of his career IMO. The back-up QB for Ariz st was a player recruited by USC and if he has talent now would be a nice story to write himself. If he cannot go then the sundevils are in big trouble but I still think this might have backdoor written on it if the trojans get ahead and don't have a reason to keep their starters in the game. Remember the trojans are banged up and if they have a 30 point lead why would Carroll keep those starters in there and risk anything. HOWEVER Arizona State also has other problems. The Sun Devils have just 75 rushing yards in the last two games combined. The sundevils might not even have the offense to even jump into the backdoor. I think USC is a very good play here, at home, looking to run it up because they need voters to go their way and really nothing on the doorstep to take focus. They have injuries but nothing tragic so they in all probability will drop the hand of god on the throats of sundevil hopefuls. But this is a lot of chalk, the trojans know they can hammer this team and might be a little unfocused. Arizona will struggle but this is the whole ball of wax for the sundevils so erickson should go in with a nothing to lose attitude and pull out some trickery.
Mich St (-3) over N'Western
This line going down makes me think there are shinanigans abound. The Wildcats hadn't really played anyone until beating Iowa last week, but even that left the Hawkeyes with a three-game losing streak. I know N'Western is looking good but their best weapon Sutton (The senior running back carried the ball 24 times for 77 yards, and also caught six passes for 72 yards. He's averaging 124.0 scrimmage yards per game) is banged up and I think the spartans should be able to run all over them. Ringer should have a very big game but this line looks cattiwampus. I expected after it opened for it to go to like 5 but I was incorrect. This game was an overtime loss for Mich St last year in a barnburner. That should get the coaching staff ready to play considering they have a defensive minded head coach. This defensive coach needs to get all over Sutton, the wildcats use a lot of spread misdirection and the LB's need to read and react to fill the ends and avoid him bouncing it outside. On a different side, I think Mich state is more of a power running game and I think N'Western will have to overload the box as everyteam is starting to do against Ringer. Can I please see Brian Hoyer put together a complete game? The kid has flashes where he looks like he has total control of the ball, offense and game. And then it looks like he has never thrown a football, showing no touch or accuracy. He is a guy that needs to step up, with the type of running game he has there is no excuse for him. Playaction should buy him time and the coach is not asking for him to light up the skies. Just hit the outs off the three or five step drops. The deep middle is normally always open for the TE because the run sucks the LB's and safeties down to help stop. Playaction down the field to the TE should get this N'Western defense burnt for a big play, but I have to wonder if Hoyer could make the trow. Still I think he does enough, while Ringer is the work horse to give the wildcats a little too much to handle.
Kansas (-14) over Colorado
Colorado runs the ball and Kansas is more of a passing team. Kansas almost was shocked by Iowa St and should have their head on straight coming into this contest. The o-line should not have a problem giving Reesing enough time to pick apart a poor Colorado secondary. That being said I think Colorado will be able to push the Kansas defense off the ball and give them some running room. Hawkins signed a nice new contract so he is gonna give a little extra in the game plan. I think a few O-linemen for Colorado are banged up and that should hurt them but not as much as the differences in game plans. I think Kansas gets ahead and if they do that then Colorado cannot grid the ball like they want to and they do not have the track stars to get into a shoot out. But has Kansas showed they have the offensive fire power to blow teams out. I have not seen it so this amount of chalk is a little scary. I still think the scare last week will hurt Colorado more than anything else. Kansas saw they can be beat, they have not really been focused against these bad teams and now they should be and that could prove the difference maker as the game goes on Kansas continues to play with focus and make it to hard for the Buff to stay in the game.
Baylor (-4) over Iowa St
Hang over for Iowa St, they let one go last week and I am sure it still hurts. Baylor is young but they are a good football team. The are lead by Griffin who is a very fun player to watch and could be a player the cyclones cannot handle. Griffin will run and throw on this defense that was light up in the second half against Kansas and are still wondering how they blew that big lead. The bears are a tough home team. Iowa st has now dropped three in a row and two of those games were roadies against poor teams. I think Baylor is a better team than Iowa and UNLV, the spread offense should be problem, they are not the greatest against the pass and considering Griffin knows if it ain't there then tuck and run. Look at Griffin, he has played Wake and Okie and has no picks on the season. These are games where Baylor has to throw because they are behind and Griffin understands that instead of forcing it into coverage he can pull it and gain the yards. I like his decision making and the bears should be on top of the clones down in texas. This is a big game in the Big 12 for these teams standings and Baylor should want to win this one and win it by executing offensively. They have played tougher teams and should be ready for a good but not great Iowa St teams that just have one test under their belt.
Florida (-4) over LSU
I might middle this if the tigers get 7. I like the home field, but I am not sold on the gators after they really did not kill Ark until late in the game. They might have been looking ahead to this but considering it was coming off a loss I thought they would have more focus. Harvin is if-y and that hurts but I am not sure LSU is as good as advertised. I now they beat Auburn but honestly that team have not impressed me either. I am not sure LSU wanted to publically say they wanted to knock out Tim Tebow. He has been less than Hiesman so I think that might wake him up a bit. It should also get the O-line to play a bit stronger. LSU has won 4 of the last 6 but last year it came down to a 14 point comeback for LSU to win. I think that means the gators should be hungry for this win, especially with an SEC loss on the record already. I think this will be a very good game and normally in the SEC with two tough teams I like taking the points but I think florida has the better offense. Yes LSU has a great rushing game but I think they might have a little liability at QB. They have had questions at that position and I think that will come back to hurt them in the swamp. Tebow has got to get all the troops up and ready for this game, both teams have speed, talent and power. Both teams have solid coaching staffs and both teams will be ready for this game. That is why I think it might be a solid middle option. I think florida wins this but not by a whole lot. I doubt I will middle because I like them to cover and they might try to pour it on as Urban has done in the past. Still this will be a game to see if anyone in the SEC can play with a focused Bama squad.
Cheers
Irish
Small Plays
Cuse (+24) over WVU.... too much chalk IMO for WVU to cover Cuse should score a few. WVU is not dagerous, they always lay a bit too much chalk IMO. Cuse should battle and stay within 21.
Cincy (-7) over Rutgers... like the bearcats at home but worried because they have the third string QB spotting a TD. Rutgers might be ready to cut bait. WVU did a good job against the defensively, Cincy should be tougher.
La Tech (+7.5) over Hawaii... La Tech is not scared, Hawaii lost to SJS at home and its hangover time after the Fresno win. La Tech can play with the hawaii teams of the past and should win this game.
Aub (-17) over Ark.... Ark shouldn't score. Tigers off a loss at home firing the OC, they have something to prove and Ark is BAD. Still small play because I am not sure Aub gets to 17 with how bad the offense looks.
BO SOX (ML) over TB.. tonight they do it for the manager.
OUCH=== 11-15-1
Cheers
Irish
Cuse (+24) over WVU.... too much chalk IMO for WVU to cover Cuse should score a few. WVU is not dagerous, they always lay a bit too much chalk IMO. Cuse should battle and stay within 21.
Cincy (-7) over Rutgers... like the bearcats at home but worried because they have the third string QB spotting a TD. Rutgers might be ready to cut bait. WVU did a good job against the defensively, Cincy should be tougher.
La Tech (+7.5) over Hawaii... La Tech is not scared, Hawaii lost to SJS at home and its hangover time after the Fresno win. La Tech can play with the hawaii teams of the past and should win this game.
Aub (-17) over Ark.... Ark shouldn't score. Tigers off a loss at home firing the OC, they have something to prove and Ark is BAD. Still small play because I am not sure Aub gets to 17 with how bad the offense looks.
BO SOX (ML) over TB.. tonight they do it for the manager.
OUCH=== 11-15-1
Cheers
Irish
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