Opening line report: NFL popularity contest moves early odds
If NFL betting were a popularity contest, the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers would likely challenge for the top spot each season.
No further proof is needed than their Week 7 matchup in Pittsburgh. With Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and friends fresh off another last-minute victory traveling to face a Steelers club trying to round into championship form after a sluggish start, gamblers already have started the prognostications with their pocketbooks.
At the Las Vegas Hilton, bettors started wearing out the light bulbs on the betting board as soon as the Steelers were posted as 4-point favorites. By mid-morning Monday, they already had moved the line to -6, then back down to the starting line of -4.
These extreme swings in the early action hardly caught oddsmakers off-guard, said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Hilton?s race and sportsbook.
?This game is all about the popularity of these two teams,? Kornegay said. ?The Steelers have a huge following every year, and the Vikings are one of the most popular teams as we speak.
?The Steelers still have a higher power rating, that?s why you see mostly -4s out there. People look at the Vikings at 6-0, but a couple of those have been last-minute victories, which don?t do a lot for the power ratings. We expect to see a lot of action, but I can?t see the line moving too much, because these teams are not a mismatch popularity-wise.?
Nor are they a mismatch on the field. Although Favre and the Vikings (6-0, 4-2 ATS) have the league?s second-ranked scoring offense at 31.5 points per game, they are facing a Steelers team that is fifth in total offense (404 yards per game and has the No. 4 overall defense (275 yards per game).
The Super Bowl champs (4-2, 1-5 ATS) have shrugged off a slow start by winning three straight, although the last two were relatively unimpressive efforts against the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns. Even so, Kornegay likes what he has seen from both teams.
?The Steelers just keep winning games,? he said. ?Ben Roethlisberger continues to carry the team. He?s not real flashy, but the plays he makes are just tremendous.?
Kornegay also noted that many oddsmakers underestimated the potential value of Favre, the 40-year-old quarterback who is making another comeback after missing most of the preseason. His value to the line was once perceived as a half to a full point, Kornegay said it?s now between 3.5 or four points. He proved it again Sunday, by driving Minnesota for a late field goal and a 33-31 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
?He is one of the biggest surprises of the year. No one thought he would be playing this well,? Kornegay said. ?This has to be one of his career years, to tell you the truth. He is playing way above our expectations.?
However, the Vikings have competition for the title of best team in the NFC, let alone the NFL. This distinction might belong to the high-powered New Orleans Saints (5-0, 5-0 ATS), who defeated the previously-unbeaten New York Giants 48-27 Sunday.
Drew Brees and the league?s top-ranked offense, averaging 38.4 points and 430 yards per contest, travel to face a difficult opponent in the gritty Miami Dolphins (2-3, 2-3 ATS).
As they displayed in two Monday Night Football contests ? one a narrow loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the other a narrow win over the New York Jets ? the Dolphins can frustrate their more-talented opponents with a ball-control offense that eats up time on the clock and prevents high-powered teams from pulling away.
Miami has the NFL?s third-best rushing defense (76.4 ypg) while boasting the top rushing offense (177.2 ypg). It?s a combination that?s often difficult to beat and the Saints (-6) will have to do so on the road in a hostile environment.
?This will be an awkward matchup for the Saints,? Kornegay said. ?They are coming off a huge victory, and everyone will be claiming they are the best team in the NFL. This is hard to deal with. Remember, these are guys who are mostly in their 20s. They tend to let their guard down when they hear that.?
In the meantime, the Saints? latest victims, the Giants (5-1, 4-1-1 ATS) will try to rebound when they host the Arizona Cardinals (+7), who are coming off their most well-rounded effort of the season in a 27-3 road win over the Seattle Seahawks. Although New York still has the No. 2 overall defense in the NFL, its points-per-game average soared from 14 to 20 (17th in the NFL) by giving up 48 points to the Saints.
Kurt Warner and the Cardinals, who have struggled to gain traction in their first post-Super Bowl season, are sure to give the Giants? defense another test. Warner threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle. Kornegay said the Week 6 performances by both teams will help balance the handle on this game.
?We?d be very concerned if the Giants beat the Saints,? he said. ?Instead, they got shellacked, and there?s some doubt as to how good the Giants really are. The Cardinals have been on a rollercoaster, but they played their best game by far this weekend.?
The books would also love some two-way action when the Colts (5-0, 4-1) visit the St. Louis Rams. Good luck with that. Kornegay said the line already has been bet from Colts -11.5 to -13.
?The Colts were a little under the radar as far as being one of the elite teams, but they look like one of the elite teams from what we?ve seen,? Kornegay said. ?Their offense looks just as good as the Saints?. (Peyton) Manning looks incredible ? he?s hitting everything.?
Other Week 7 NFL opening lines include: Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+7); San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3, -120); San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+5); New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14.5); New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+6.5); Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5); Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5); Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+6.5); Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (no line: Bills? quarterback injury status).
If NFL betting were a popularity contest, the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers would likely challenge for the top spot each season.
No further proof is needed than their Week 7 matchup in Pittsburgh. With Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and friends fresh off another last-minute victory traveling to face a Steelers club trying to round into championship form after a sluggish start, gamblers already have started the prognostications with their pocketbooks.
At the Las Vegas Hilton, bettors started wearing out the light bulbs on the betting board as soon as the Steelers were posted as 4-point favorites. By mid-morning Monday, they already had moved the line to -6, then back down to the starting line of -4.
These extreme swings in the early action hardly caught oddsmakers off-guard, said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Hilton?s race and sportsbook.
?This game is all about the popularity of these two teams,? Kornegay said. ?The Steelers have a huge following every year, and the Vikings are one of the most popular teams as we speak.
?The Steelers still have a higher power rating, that?s why you see mostly -4s out there. People look at the Vikings at 6-0, but a couple of those have been last-minute victories, which don?t do a lot for the power ratings. We expect to see a lot of action, but I can?t see the line moving too much, because these teams are not a mismatch popularity-wise.?
Nor are they a mismatch on the field. Although Favre and the Vikings (6-0, 4-2 ATS) have the league?s second-ranked scoring offense at 31.5 points per game, they are facing a Steelers team that is fifth in total offense (404 yards per game and has the No. 4 overall defense (275 yards per game).
The Super Bowl champs (4-2, 1-5 ATS) have shrugged off a slow start by winning three straight, although the last two were relatively unimpressive efforts against the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns. Even so, Kornegay likes what he has seen from both teams.
?The Steelers just keep winning games,? he said. ?Ben Roethlisberger continues to carry the team. He?s not real flashy, but the plays he makes are just tremendous.?
Kornegay also noted that many oddsmakers underestimated the potential value of Favre, the 40-year-old quarterback who is making another comeback after missing most of the preseason. His value to the line was once perceived as a half to a full point, Kornegay said it?s now between 3.5 or four points. He proved it again Sunday, by driving Minnesota for a late field goal and a 33-31 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
?He is one of the biggest surprises of the year. No one thought he would be playing this well,? Kornegay said. ?This has to be one of his career years, to tell you the truth. He is playing way above our expectations.?
However, the Vikings have competition for the title of best team in the NFC, let alone the NFL. This distinction might belong to the high-powered New Orleans Saints (5-0, 5-0 ATS), who defeated the previously-unbeaten New York Giants 48-27 Sunday.
Drew Brees and the league?s top-ranked offense, averaging 38.4 points and 430 yards per contest, travel to face a difficult opponent in the gritty Miami Dolphins (2-3, 2-3 ATS).
As they displayed in two Monday Night Football contests ? one a narrow loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the other a narrow win over the New York Jets ? the Dolphins can frustrate their more-talented opponents with a ball-control offense that eats up time on the clock and prevents high-powered teams from pulling away.
Miami has the NFL?s third-best rushing defense (76.4 ypg) while boasting the top rushing offense (177.2 ypg). It?s a combination that?s often difficult to beat and the Saints (-6) will have to do so on the road in a hostile environment.
?This will be an awkward matchup for the Saints,? Kornegay said. ?They are coming off a huge victory, and everyone will be claiming they are the best team in the NFL. This is hard to deal with. Remember, these are guys who are mostly in their 20s. They tend to let their guard down when they hear that.?
In the meantime, the Saints? latest victims, the Giants (5-1, 4-1-1 ATS) will try to rebound when they host the Arizona Cardinals (+7), who are coming off their most well-rounded effort of the season in a 27-3 road win over the Seattle Seahawks. Although New York still has the No. 2 overall defense in the NFL, its points-per-game average soared from 14 to 20 (17th in the NFL) by giving up 48 points to the Saints.
Kurt Warner and the Cardinals, who have struggled to gain traction in their first post-Super Bowl season, are sure to give the Giants? defense another test. Warner threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle. Kornegay said the Week 6 performances by both teams will help balance the handle on this game.
?We?d be very concerned if the Giants beat the Saints,? he said. ?Instead, they got shellacked, and there?s some doubt as to how good the Giants really are. The Cardinals have been on a rollercoaster, but they played their best game by far this weekend.?
The books would also love some two-way action when the Colts (5-0, 4-1) visit the St. Louis Rams. Good luck with that. Kornegay said the line already has been bet from Colts -11.5 to -13.
?The Colts were a little under the radar as far as being one of the elite teams, but they look like one of the elite teams from what we?ve seen,? Kornegay said. ?Their offense looks just as good as the Saints?. (Peyton) Manning looks incredible ? he?s hitting everything.?
Other Week 7 NFL opening lines include: Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+7); San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3, -120); San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+5); New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14.5); New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+6.5); Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5); Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5); Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+6.5); Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (no line: Bills? quarterback injury status).
