Week 7 Power Ratings

[Valuist]

No great teams but a lot of mediocre ones:

1. Miami 96.5--The state of Fla is best in the pros as well as NCAA
Tampa Bay 96.5
Oakland 96.5-even after the loss
4. Philadelphia 96
5. Denver 95
San Fran 95
7. Green Bay 94.5
8. New Orleans 94-they'd be higher if they hadn't lost to Det
9. Pittsburgh 93- dominated a terrible team
San Diego 93
11. New England 92.5-last year was a fraud
12. Kansas City 91- they'd be higher if they played any defense
13. Indianapolis 90.5-a fraud waiting to be taken down
14. Jacksonville 90-might be time to jump off the bandwagon
15. Atlanta 89.5
16. Buffalo 89-haven't forced a TO in 4 games
St. Louis 89-strength of schedule makes record deceptive
Arizona 89
19. Carolina 88.5-3 close losses in a row; meltdown next?
Chicago 88.5-see comment on New England
Cleveland 88.5
Seattle 88.5-this might be a pt or so too high
23. Baltimore 88-would be higher if not for bad start
Washington 88-no consistency
25. Tennessee 87.5-I'm not convinced
NY Giants 87.5-Did they really make the SB 2 seasons ago?
27. Dallas 86-Don't let the record fool you.
28. Minnesota 85-Lucky they get Det twice
29. NY Jets 84.5
30. Detroit 83.5-Lucky to get another shot at Minny
31. Houston 81.5-signs of life on offensive side
32. Cincinnati 80-abhorrant

 

[baby johnson]

very accurate, cept I'd put baltimore up to about 91.5 due to their great defense, up and coming offense,head coach and attitude. I'd also drop pitt due to their qb,and off coordinator, they also don't seem as focused as balt. I'd lower them to 88. just my opinions, great work

ahjoah

 

[Valuist]

You could be right about both teams; Baltimore has played much better recently but did not look good at all the first couple games and those still must be taken into account. As for Pitt, their number is a product of a) a large number to start the year with and b) showing signs that they may have corrected some of the problems. The opposing QBs have a rating of only around 75 now so their pass D has improved. Maddox seems to have a better grasp of the offense than Kordell did.

 

[GM]

Hard to argue with much here....though there are a couple I am not sure about (I am sure everybody would have a couple they are not sure about...you'll never get full agreement).

I would put Pitt lower, GB lower (I still don't believe they are legit), and the way they are playing right now, Clev a bit lower maybe. Balt...DO they still have great D? I keep hearing this...not sure I believe it. Maybe "good" D, but great seems like a bit of a stretch. Certainly not great with R. Lewis. 18 rookies on this team I think I heard?

Also curious if you use this as a tool to set your own lines. I just looked over a few of these and did some calculations.... Higher team's rating minus Lower team's rating....add 4 points to the home side, and I was coming up with roughly what the line would be on a number of these games. Could be slightly off...but it appears to be close. Do you do something like this Valuist?

 

[GM]

typo: That should say "Certainly not great without R. Lewis".

 

[MrChristo]

28. Minnesota 85-Lucky they get Det twice

30. Detroit 83.5-Lucky to get another shot at Minny

LOL!!!

 

[Valuist]

GM-

Yes I do make my own lines although I usually allow 3 pts for home field. Actually I usually use the Gold Sheet home field ratings in conjunction w/my power ratings. It gives me a good feel for how I think the line will move. The game that is off the most is the Buff/Mia game but even w/Lucas starting, I wouldn't drop the line by maybe more than 2 pts. 4.5 seems way too low. I also thought Pitt opening at -3.5 was too low and now its -4.5 at some places. TB +3.5 will likely go to +3 so if you like the Bucs bet them now at +3.5.

 

[GM]

Pitt line too low?

Pitt line too low?

I don't know if the Pitt line is too low or not. My initial instinct was to grab the Colts. Have they solved their pass defence problems? They've held a couple teams to lower scores (Clev, Cinci), but I don't think these are teams that have the weapons to take advantage of Pitt's weaknesses.

Pitt has given up 30+ points to each of New England, Oakland and New Orleans. Common thread...all three have very good to excellent QB's and passing games. As is the case with Indy. Hmmmm.

 

[MrChristo]

The flip side, of course, is that Pits should be able to control the ground game against an Indi team allowing 4.5 yards per rush.
I've played Pits -4, but to be honest the old Monday Night over might be the better play!

 

[Valuist]

GM-

I'd avoid the Colts. This is a fraudulent 4-1 team. They've beaten the 2 worst teams in the league, gave up 21 to Cincy and over 170 rush yards. They're coming off a non-covering win over Baltimore so they didn't play to LV expectations. They've given up over 100 rush yds in every game but have rushed for less than 90 yds in each of their last 3 games. Pitt is value up to -6.