My analysis of this week's games, based on factors such as bouncebacks, overlooks, letdowns, breakouts, shutdowns, etc.
Team - Last Week's Opponent - This Week's Opponent - Next Week's Opponent
Losses in Red
Wins in Green
Washington: TB - @ Buf - Bye
Buffalo: @ NYJ - Wash - @ KC
My take: Both teams are 3-3, and come limping in off spankings last week. No look-ahead factor for either team. 'Skins off a blowout loss to TB, first Washington game all year that was decided by more than 3 points. Bye up next for Washington, and a good system was posted here this week that favors taking road teams heading into byes. Bills have lacked any sort of punch for the better part of four weeks now. Also some injury concerns with Moulds hurting. Bills running game has been ineffective for quite a while. It's not quite desperation time yet, but they have to get it turned around SOON. Next week's game @ KC is looking like a much more difficult game to win than this one, so the Bills have to be thinking they have to take advantage of a winnable game while they have the opportunity. While both teams looked bad last week, Buffalo's got to be a bit more embarassed, losing so badly to a winless Jets squad. Tough to find any definitive psychological edges, but I'd have a slight lean to Washington in this spot I think.
Philadelphia: @ Dal - @ NYG - NYJ
NY Giants: @ NE - Phil - @ Minn
My take: The future is now for both of these clubs. I think it's about time we find out which of these teams (if either), is serious about competing this year. Both teams are 2-3 and the loser of this game will be in the division cellar by themselves, and will start to see the season slipping away. Giants offence is in a funk, scoring just 16 pts in the past two games. This doesn't look like the best spot for them to break out. This is Philly's 3rd game in a row against division foes, splitting the first two, with a 2-pt home win vs Wash, and then a 2-pt road loss @ surging Dallas. Slightly more urgency on the NY side of the ball perhaps, this being a home game for them. After this the Giants are on the road for four of the next five games (assuming you count the game @ NYJ as a "road" game). NYG also facing a much stiffer test next week @ Minn. I wouldn't be really comfortable laying points with either side in this game, but might consider a play on the Under.
Dallas: Phil - @ Det - @ TB
Detroit: Bye - Dal - @ Chi
My take: To me, this looks like an excellent spot for the Cowboys to trip and fall. For one, the 'Boys are off an important divisional win vs rival Philly. A close, tense game. They should be believing in themselves, that they are serious contenders. They've also got a big game on the horizon next week @ Tampa Bay. This game could easily get overlooked as they dream of taking on the Superbowl champs. The Lions have actually been reasonably competitive on the scoreboard, despite their 1-4 record. Not a great team, but a team that I think will improve as Mooch gets more time to work with them. They've had a week off to work on things and should fly in under the radar here. And they are finally getting back on their home field after almost a month away. Just like the above two games, this game is a low -3, which seems to indicate the books are shying away from action on the home dog. On top of all that, I've got two strong systems...one which says bet ON a home dog after 4+ straight losses...another which says bet AGAINST a road favorite after 4+ straight wins. Detroit is a play.
San Diego: Bye - @ Clev - Mia
Cleveland: Oak - SD - @ NE
My take: The Chargers must forget what their home stadium looks like. 3rd straight road game (with a bye mixed in), playing all over the country (@ Oak, @ Jax, @ Clev). Again, few tangible situational factors to take into consideration here. These teams aren't traditional rivals, but don't have any sort of look-ahead or look-back factors either. Neither team is exceptionally talented, especially on offence. One thing that does separate these teams though - defence. In five of their six games this year, the Browns have held their opponents to under 21 pts scored. By contrast, the Chargers have yet to hold any opponent to under 24 pts scored. On that alone I would be tempted to take a shot and lay the points with the Browns. But this isn't a team I trust a whole lot; I don't find them to be very consistent. They're capable of knocking off a good team, then laying an egg against a bad club. Also a worse home team than road team. The Chargers have to break thru at some point you'd think and get that first W. But they really haven't been competitive enough anywhere yet to warrant risking money on them. I'll lean to the Browns for now, as much as I hate to lay 5 pts with a mediocre club.
Baltimore: @ Ariz - @ Cin - Den
Cincinnati: Bye - Balt - Sea
My take: Second-straight roadie for the Ravens. They won the first, so that usually means they are a go-against in the second. Also a potential look-ahead situation as the Ravens have a home date with Denver up next. Rested Cinci club that I think is a bit better than people give them credit for. Unfortunately I think the linemaker sees this too. With the exception of Week 1, Cinci has been within 7 pts of every opponent. I was hoping for Balt to be favored by more than a FG, but not yet. I may wait on this one and hope to get a +3 by game day. An outright Cinci win would not be overly shocking to me. In this division I really do believe any of the teams can beat any other at any given time.
Man, this card's been pretty boring up until this point. That should change here...
Denver: Pitt - @ Minn - @ Balt
Minnesota: Bye - Den - NYG
My take: I'm excited about this game. I've got something called the F.G.A.T.I.T., or First Game After The Injury Theory. The theory says to play ON a team in the first game after they lose their star. Now, it's debateable as to whether Jake Plummer is truly a "star", but he is their field leader. Teams tend to pull together when a key figure misses his first game. Take Atlanta's Week 1 victory @ Dallas without Michael Vick. Since then the Falcons have absolutely stunk, but they got the job done for one week. For that matter, look at how Minny did when Daunte went down...didn't skip a beat & smoked the 49ers. Over time, a team missing it's star player can't keep up the momentum. But for one game, they come through more often than not. Then you add in the fact Daunte Culpepper is likely back...a situation where the team eases up and feels comfortable, expecting things will be easier. Add to that Denver's got the #1 rush defence in the league. Minny has been getting away with Moe Williams and whoever else against some suspect run defences. They can't and won't be able to do that here. Absolutely, I see this as an excellent spot for the Vikings to drop their first game, in frustrating Randy-Moss-tantrum fashion. To top it all off, the news of Plummer out/Culpepper in will send the line upwards. Waiting til gametime when +4 or even +4? should be readily available. The Broncos are a play.
(edit necessary) Well, I'm sort of embarassed...but after writing all that, I now realize Jake Plummer did not even start last week vs Pitt. I was under the impression he started the game and Buerlein took over early on. That does change things a bit, as this isn't technically the first game after the injury now. Crap. I am going to stick with the Denver pick though regardless. I don't believe the Vikes have been tested by a really good team at all this season. The Culpepper coming back stuff still applies, as does the Den rush D. I still like the play, just a little less than before.
Back with the rest of the games in an hour or two. Too much typing, I need a drink. :drinky: Root beer, of course.
Team - Last Week's Opponent - This Week's Opponent - Next Week's Opponent
Losses in Red
Wins in Green
Washington: TB - @ Buf - Bye
Buffalo: @ NYJ - Wash - @ KC
My take: Both teams are 3-3, and come limping in off spankings last week. No look-ahead factor for either team. 'Skins off a blowout loss to TB, first Washington game all year that was decided by more than 3 points. Bye up next for Washington, and a good system was posted here this week that favors taking road teams heading into byes. Bills have lacked any sort of punch for the better part of four weeks now. Also some injury concerns with Moulds hurting. Bills running game has been ineffective for quite a while. It's not quite desperation time yet, but they have to get it turned around SOON. Next week's game @ KC is looking like a much more difficult game to win than this one, so the Bills have to be thinking they have to take advantage of a winnable game while they have the opportunity. While both teams looked bad last week, Buffalo's got to be a bit more embarassed, losing so badly to a winless Jets squad. Tough to find any definitive psychological edges, but I'd have a slight lean to Washington in this spot I think.
Philadelphia: @ Dal - @ NYG - NYJ
NY Giants: @ NE - Phil - @ Minn
My take: The future is now for both of these clubs. I think it's about time we find out which of these teams (if either), is serious about competing this year. Both teams are 2-3 and the loser of this game will be in the division cellar by themselves, and will start to see the season slipping away. Giants offence is in a funk, scoring just 16 pts in the past two games. This doesn't look like the best spot for them to break out. This is Philly's 3rd game in a row against division foes, splitting the first two, with a 2-pt home win vs Wash, and then a 2-pt road loss @ surging Dallas. Slightly more urgency on the NY side of the ball perhaps, this being a home game for them. After this the Giants are on the road for four of the next five games (assuming you count the game @ NYJ as a "road" game). NYG also facing a much stiffer test next week @ Minn. I wouldn't be really comfortable laying points with either side in this game, but might consider a play on the Under.
Dallas: Phil - @ Det - @ TB
Detroit: Bye - Dal - @ Chi
My take: To me, this looks like an excellent spot for the Cowboys to trip and fall. For one, the 'Boys are off an important divisional win vs rival Philly. A close, tense game. They should be believing in themselves, that they are serious contenders. They've also got a big game on the horizon next week @ Tampa Bay. This game could easily get overlooked as they dream of taking on the Superbowl champs. The Lions have actually been reasonably competitive on the scoreboard, despite their 1-4 record. Not a great team, but a team that I think will improve as Mooch gets more time to work with them. They've had a week off to work on things and should fly in under the radar here. And they are finally getting back on their home field after almost a month away. Just like the above two games, this game is a low -3, which seems to indicate the books are shying away from action on the home dog. On top of all that, I've got two strong systems...one which says bet ON a home dog after 4+ straight losses...another which says bet AGAINST a road favorite after 4+ straight wins. Detroit is a play.
San Diego: Bye - @ Clev - Mia
Cleveland: Oak - SD - @ NE
My take: The Chargers must forget what their home stadium looks like. 3rd straight road game (with a bye mixed in), playing all over the country (@ Oak, @ Jax, @ Clev). Again, few tangible situational factors to take into consideration here. These teams aren't traditional rivals, but don't have any sort of look-ahead or look-back factors either. Neither team is exceptionally talented, especially on offence. One thing that does separate these teams though - defence. In five of their six games this year, the Browns have held their opponents to under 21 pts scored. By contrast, the Chargers have yet to hold any opponent to under 24 pts scored. On that alone I would be tempted to take a shot and lay the points with the Browns. But this isn't a team I trust a whole lot; I don't find them to be very consistent. They're capable of knocking off a good team, then laying an egg against a bad club. Also a worse home team than road team. The Chargers have to break thru at some point you'd think and get that first W. But they really haven't been competitive enough anywhere yet to warrant risking money on them. I'll lean to the Browns for now, as much as I hate to lay 5 pts with a mediocre club.
Baltimore: @ Ariz - @ Cin - Den
Cincinnati: Bye - Balt - Sea
My take: Second-straight roadie for the Ravens. They won the first, so that usually means they are a go-against in the second. Also a potential look-ahead situation as the Ravens have a home date with Denver up next. Rested Cinci club that I think is a bit better than people give them credit for. Unfortunately I think the linemaker sees this too. With the exception of Week 1, Cinci has been within 7 pts of every opponent. I was hoping for Balt to be favored by more than a FG, but not yet. I may wait on this one and hope to get a +3 by game day. An outright Cinci win would not be overly shocking to me. In this division I really do believe any of the teams can beat any other at any given time.
Man, this card's been pretty boring up until this point. That should change here...
Denver: Pitt - @ Minn - @ Balt
Minnesota: Bye - Den - NYG
My take: I'm excited about this game. I've got something called the F.G.A.T.I.T., or First Game After The Injury Theory. The theory says to play ON a team in the first game after they lose their star. Now, it's debateable as to whether Jake Plummer is truly a "star", but he is their field leader. Teams tend to pull together when a key figure misses his first game. Take Atlanta's Week 1 victory @ Dallas without Michael Vick. Since then the Falcons have absolutely stunk, but they got the job done for one week. For that matter, look at how Minny did when Daunte went down...didn't skip a beat & smoked the 49ers. Over time, a team missing it's star player can't keep up the momentum. But for one game, they come through more often than not. Then you add in the fact Daunte Culpepper is likely back...a situation where the team eases up and feels comfortable, expecting things will be easier. Add to that Denver's got the #1 rush defence in the league. Minny has been getting away with Moe Williams and whoever else against some suspect run defences. They can't and won't be able to do that here. Absolutely, I see this as an excellent spot for the Vikings to drop their first game, in frustrating Randy-Moss-tantrum fashion. To top it all off, the news of Plummer out/Culpepper in will send the line upwards. Waiting til gametime when +4 or even +4? should be readily available. The Broncos are a play.
(edit necessary) Well, I'm sort of embarassed...but after writing all that, I now realize Jake Plummer did not even start last week vs Pitt. I was under the impression he started the game and Buerlein took over early on. That does change things a bit, as this isn't technically the first game after the injury now. Crap. I am going to stick with the Denver pick though regardless. I don't believe the Vikes have been tested by a really good team at all this season. The Culpepper coming back stuff still applies, as does the Den rush D. I still like the play, just a little less than before.
Back with the rest of the games in an hour or two. Too much typing, I need a drink. :drinky: Root beer, of course.
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