20-29-1 (-11.20)
Just successfully completed 5 straight losing weeks since....We all know consistancy is the key!!...Has to make me the best fade on this board!
I've been unlucky, and a good week is just around the corner! :142lmao: (Degenerate gambler quote of the year?
)
Anyway.........
Denver -5.5
Away fav. Monday Night fav. Still like it alot.
Denver find themselves in the same situation as Min last week; road favs 2 weeks straight....And as discussed last week this seems to create a 'false' low line.
League now: 17-6-4 (Av. win 8.1) away 3+ fav off any ats win as any away fav...since '98.
15-4-2 (Av. win 12.8) if total > 42.5 since '89
Like last week, it tells me that teams not only can cover 2 weeks in a row...they do!
The game?...How will Cinci score? Denver no. 1 in total defense...allowing only 3.6 ypc and 5.39 ypp!!
Cinci a league worst 4.89 ypp!!!...Simply can't see Cinci getting any ball movement here.
Then Cinci allowing 4.6 ypc @ a league worst 160.4 ypg on the ground!!!...Rueben Droughns has a (nother!!) HUGE game here...controls the game, and Denver win by 2 TD's! (Well, one at least)
SD @ Carolina under 42
This one is more of a 'trend' pick.
League: 1-8 under (Av. 31.2) home 3- fav off 10+ ats loss as away 7+ dog since '98.....The 1 over was 23-20 in OT with the total @ 41.
1-10-1 under (av. 35.3) since '89 if total > 40.5
Carolina 2-9 under off 2+ straight losses
Carolia 4-12 under home total 38-42.
Caldwell, SD's leading receiver (and only real deep threat) out.
Carolina really struggling to score.
Seems a high number to me....Will take my chances on the under.
Likely thoughts:
Cleveland +7 (hopefully 7.5!)
Yeah, great...Philli flying...but how do you give a road fav a TD when they allow 5.0 ypr??
Cleveland ground game not so bad with Green and Suggs...Really should be able to keep the McNabb and owens off the field long enough to at least keep this one close.
NYG -6.5
I did my best to keep everyone off the Lions last week. There is simply NO way you could take Detroit without Williams. None. He IS their offense.
Every chance he is back this week, but wil it matter? Lions DEAD LAST in offense. ZERO running game..the occasional long strike for a TD.
Giants solid running game...Good passing game...Solid D....top 11 passing D.
Only question here is NYG -6.5 or under 41?....Det won't score more than 17....can NY cover or is the under the play?
NYG: 3-14 under last 17 off a bye!!..Still like the -6.5!
Atlanta +4
2 points: KC run D crap! (4.4 ypr)....Can see Vick having a big running game.....KC pass offence HUGELY over-rated! In the bottom half for yards @ only 6.34 ypp....I still think the 'public' see this team as an explosive, point scoring team....It just isn't!
KC relies on their running game, and Atlanta allowing a league low 74.5 ypp on the ground at a league low 3.0 ypr!!!
The way to beat the Falcons is through the air...Can KC?...The stats say no...Their record says no.....ahem, I say no!! :idea:
Indi -9
More 'trends':
League: 7-0 SU (6-1 this no...Av. win 21.7!!!) home 7+ fav, total >44.5 off a BYE! (Since '89)
Teams off a bye who are supposed to score big, DO score big.
League: 8-16-1 (Av. loss 13.3) away 7+ dog, off 7+ ats win as home 3- dog. [Jax]
0-4 (Av. loss 26.5!!!) if total >44.5
Jax beat a bad team last week and has brought the line down for this week.
Indi 49% on 3rd downs to 35.5 for Jax.
Run O and D very similar.
Indi 8.21 ypp, Jax 6.43
Indi 6.89 yppa, Jax 6.83!!
Indi throw it often and effectively in this one!
One more 'trend' of the week.....And, being the board's worst 'capper I may aswell play it..... :sadwave:
League: 16-9-1 (Av. WIN 0.1) home 7- dog off 3- ats loss as away 7- dog. [MIAMI]
9-2-1 (Av. WIN 3.1) if total < 40...(10-2 this no!!)
Now, Miami should have beaten the Jets @ home (INT return for TD)....TOTALLY outplayed NE!...Then should have beaten Buff (INT returned for TD!! )
IF....IF Miami can hold onto the ball, there's no reason why they can't get within 6 of a team who luckily beat TB @ home, and are very over-rated, imo.
Will wait...Hopefully get a 6.5 :clap: (or better!! :scared )
Just successfully completed 5 straight losing weeks since....We all know consistancy is the key!!...Has to make me the best fade on this board!
I've been unlucky, and a good week is just around the corner! :142lmao: (Degenerate gambler quote of the year?
)Anyway.........
Denver -5.5
Away fav. Monday Night fav. Still like it alot.
Denver find themselves in the same situation as Min last week; road favs 2 weeks straight....And as discussed last week this seems to create a 'false' low line.
League now: 17-6-4 (Av. win 8.1) away 3+ fav off any ats win as any away fav...since '98.
15-4-2 (Av. win 12.8) if total > 42.5 since '89
Like last week, it tells me that teams not only can cover 2 weeks in a row...they do!
The game?...How will Cinci score? Denver no. 1 in total defense...allowing only 3.6 ypc and 5.39 ypp!!
Cinci a league worst 4.89 ypp!!!...Simply can't see Cinci getting any ball movement here.
Then Cinci allowing 4.6 ypc @ a league worst 160.4 ypg on the ground!!!...Rueben Droughns has a (nother!!) HUGE game here...controls the game, and Denver win by 2 TD's! (Well, one at least
)SD @ Carolina under 42
This one is more of a 'trend' pick.
League: 1-8 under (Av. 31.2) home 3- fav off 10+ ats loss as away 7+ dog since '98.....The 1 over was 23-20 in OT with the total @ 41.
1-10-1 under (av. 35.3) since '89 if total > 40.5
Carolina 2-9 under off 2+ straight losses
Carolia 4-12 under home total 38-42.
Caldwell, SD's leading receiver (and only real deep threat) out.
Carolina really struggling to score.
Seems a high number to me....Will take my chances on the under.
Likely thoughts:
Cleveland +7 (hopefully 7.5!)
Yeah, great...Philli flying...but how do you give a road fav a TD when they allow 5.0 ypr??
Cleveland ground game not so bad with Green and Suggs...Really should be able to keep the McNabb and owens off the field long enough to at least keep this one close.
NYG -6.5
I did my best to keep everyone off the Lions last week. There is simply NO way you could take Detroit without Williams. None. He IS their offense.
Every chance he is back this week, but wil it matter? Lions DEAD LAST in offense. ZERO running game..the occasional long strike for a TD.
Giants solid running game...Good passing game...Solid D....top 11 passing D.
Only question here is NYG -6.5 or under 41?....Det won't score more than 17....can NY cover or is the under the play?
NYG: 3-14 under last 17 off a bye!!..Still like the -6.5!
Atlanta +4
2 points: KC run D crap! (4.4 ypr)....Can see Vick having a big running game.....KC pass offence HUGELY over-rated! In the bottom half for yards @ only 6.34 ypp....I still think the 'public' see this team as an explosive, point scoring team....It just isn't!
KC relies on their running game, and Atlanta allowing a league low 74.5 ypp on the ground at a league low 3.0 ypr!!!
The way to beat the Falcons is through the air...Can KC?...The stats say no...Their record says no.....ahem, I say no!! :idea:
Indi -9
More 'trends':
League: 7-0 SU (6-1 this no...Av. win 21.7!!!) home 7+ fav, total >44.5 off a BYE! (Since '89)
Teams off a bye who are supposed to score big, DO score big.
League: 8-16-1 (Av. loss 13.3) away 7+ dog, off 7+ ats win as home 3- dog. [Jax]
0-4 (Av. loss 26.5!!!) if total >44.5
Jax beat a bad team last week and has brought the line down for this week.
Indi 49% on 3rd downs to 35.5 for Jax.
Run O and D very similar.
Indi 8.21 ypp, Jax 6.43
Indi 6.89 yppa, Jax 6.83!!
Indi throw it often and effectively in this one!
One more 'trend' of the week.....And, being the board's worst 'capper I may aswell play it..... :sadwave:
League: 16-9-1 (Av. WIN 0.1) home 7- dog off 3- ats loss as away 7- dog. [MIAMI]
9-2-1 (Av. WIN 3.1) if total < 40...(10-2 this no!!)
Now, Miami should have beaten the Jets @ home (INT return for TD)....TOTALLY outplayed NE!...Then should have beaten Buff (INT returned for TD!!
)IF....IF Miami can hold onto the ball, there's no reason why they can't get within 6 of a team who luckily beat TB @ home, and are very over-rated, imo.
Will wait...Hopefully get a 6.5 :clap: (or better!! :scared )
