WEEK 8 all games anyalysis traps abound every where beware ........

Scrapman

Rollingdembones
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By Traps i mean schedule Traps NOT the Ones you think Vegas creates or heard other speak of Vegas traps
NOTE these are my systems with 14 years of data RESULTS before and after results how teams fare after a s/u dog win then favored etc...

This one system i made up is bad news for all teams in NFL Teams that bounce back with a win off a loss of 10 pts or more are bad bets ...... The Vikings hold top spot in this system


9 - 23 ATS update now 9 -24 week 1 they lost by 10 points finally get win @ london over steelers come home - 2 1/2 vs Panthers got ears handed to them 35-10 loss


SO when you see teams do this say lose 25- 10 Lose 35-7 lose 17-10 then win 13-10 that next game is to be faded no matter where they play or who.




49ers - 17 vs Jaguars ........hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm OK they are playing in London so I dont lay DD's anywhere in NFL especially on da Road

YOU go Jags or nothing I cannot fathom 49ers wanting to super shellack this Team and i think Jags might win one for The gipper Coach dad just passed even tho was expected he was 85 yrs old still when Your Pop goes your sad any given sunday

huge Bad Trend for San Fran get this one listed in Marc Lawrence play Book 1-5 ATS before Bye Week

Chiefs-7 vs Browns ...ooooooooo baby this line stinks here Browns were a +10 pup at badly wounded Packers right ? why only +7 @ KC ???? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm OK looked at Cheifs schedule no look aheads there They Play @ Bills next BUT browns yup looking ahead to Home game vs Ravens thier rival and the Champs expect the normal here Browns rool over like a bad puppy save it For Ravens and put a waxing on them in the DOG pound

then again still this line is goofy this is B 2 B roads for browns vs one stiff defense who can shut you down never liked weeden any way

I just Noticed something Odds makers are either giving browns respect or just aint got a handle on this Bad team yet. only + 6 1/2 @ ravens lost by 8 +3 vs Lions got waxed 31-13 + 9 1/2 @ GB got waxed 31 -13 only + 7 1/2 @ KC this week

Patriots - 6 1/2 Vs Dolphins Patriots home after a a loss vs Div team hmmmmm hold on let me pull out my specail systems book ewwwww Pats after a JETS loss are 2-3 in div games with 1 s/u loss

after a 0-7 pt line result following a loss vs Div they go 12-11 not great but still good.

Dolphins after a Bills loss in div games 2- 1 ATS. But after a points spread loss in 7 1/2 - 17 1/2 range

bad news they are 1-5 in Div games 4 times as a Dog w/ one s/u favored loss


Roll home with Pats

Saints - 12 1/2 vs Bills Saints rested BAD team trend on Bills after a Dolphins win wooooooooo ieeeeee

when playing NON div foes the bills are 1-7 ATS with 1 s/u fav. loss

on good note wow; Bills after a win in the 7 1/2 - 17 1/2 spread range 12-3 vs non div foes w/ 3 s/u fav losses

Lets flip over To Saints post bye weeks they are 5-4 ATS with 2 s/u fav. losses

current streak from 09- 12 they are 4-0 perfect all conference foes NYG twice Seat and rival TB

after a 0-7 pt spread loss they drop the hammer 44- 39 ATS 53 % winners after a 1-9 point margin loss they are 21 - 19 ATS

Bills defense will get drilled here after that 4 quater war @ Dolphins almost losing game at end 21-20 but hit that FG to win it 23-21 Dammmmm where was that wide right cry LOL



Still i learned long ago Bad teams find ways to lose games Good teams find ways to win

Saints just Lay the wood expect no lay down here after that loss @ Pats

Lions -3 vs Cowboys hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm Cowboys have owned this conf rival for long time

but this new lions team is one high scoring offense at home also and Reggie bush carrying the mail sure helps

Cowboys after 0-7 point spread wins are 22 - 28 when playing non div foes

after an eagles win tho vs non div foes they win 5-3 ATS w/ 2 s/u favored losses

after a 10 - 19 point margin of victory vs non div foes they are 13- 12 ATS


Lions now after 0 -7 pt spread losses ewwwwww vs non div foes are putrid going 25- 32 56% losers w/ 7 s/u favored losses ewwwwwwwwwwwww

after a 1-9 point margin Loss 33- 43 over all ewwwwwwwww 22- 29 vs non div w/ 5 s/u fav. losses

Me thinks odds makers goofed here favoring a team because they are home vs a team that is winning games

bad trend from marc lawrence play book Lions are 2-12 ATS off a s/u favored loss NOT sure about accuracy or how many years he has that trend too many typos in this magazine

well last year they went 100% losses 5 times in 2011 1 - 3 Caught Denver flat after Tebow huge emotional win @ Miami as a Chalk of 3 hammered them;
so lets give accuracy to this bad lions trend and Take Cowboys +3 points.

Eagles - 6 5 vs Giants he he he he he he lock it up folks i dont care who QB's this Eagles team

another s/u favored loss coming home LMAO :142smilie

Not bothering here take the live dog vs one loose defense ranked at bottom of league

and way too son for rivals to meet up again 3 weeks ago Eagles won @ NYG yep 10/6
not bothering with my systems i know my homies NYG + 6 1/2 or no bet guys

TRAP game Steelers - 3 @ raiders ........... yeah sure just squeaked win cover vs biggest Rival ever the Champs Steelers - 2 won by 3 Raiders rested hm bad after bye weeks vs non div 4 - 5 ats w/ 1 s/u favored loss but 2 s/u dog wins when playing NON div foes

RAIDERS edge

after a 7 1/2 - 17 /12 point spread loss 8-9 ATS vs Non div foes w/ 2 s/u favored losses but as a DOG 3 s/u wins RAIDERS edge

after a 10 -19 point margin LOSS 6- 12 ats vs non div but 3 times as a DOG won the game s/u
after a Cheifs loss ewwwww 3-5 ATS w/ 2 s/u favored losses not sure as a dog but im feeling a let down for steelers here my gut and haed know better cause I lost years ago taking steelers home chalk vs raiders and watched them get waxed.

steelers after a 0-7 point spread win are 44- 43 in NON div but 7 times lost when favored

after a Ravens win 6-2 vs non div foes w/ 1 s/u fav loss

bad trend for pitts 1-6 ats in 1st of b 2 b road games they are away @ Patsies next week

1-7 ATS as NON div road chalks laying 3 points or more

topper 100% losers vs AFC west 0-5 ATS yup last year week 3 @ raiders - 3.5 points s/u loss 34-31

- 12.5 MNF vs KC Lost $ 16-13 win - 7 vs Chargers S/U loss 34-24

RAIDERS plus 3 points on my pool lock it up


Bengals - 6 1/2 vs Jets hmmmmmmmm hmmmmmm Cincy favored after a s/u dog win in one of those 4 quarter high scoring wars hmmmmmmmmm

wow Bengals vs NON div foes are sparkling switching roles vs non div foes they are $ 9-3 ATS but all 3 losses were s/u as a chalk

after a 0-7 point spread win 24-20 vs Non div foes

after a 1-9 point margin win - 18-12 ATS vs non div. foes but 5 times when favored lost the game s/u

Now jets ok after a s/u win when losing by 10 pts pr more game before jets are 10- 13 vs non div foes but 5 times as a DOG win the game s/u they are currently doing this again this year L 13 - 38 @ Titans win s/u @ Falcons 30-28 Lose to steelers 19-6 Win vs PAts 30-27

OMG they stay above water after a Patriots win 3-2 vs Non div foes 1 s/u win as a dog 1 /su loss when favored
after a 0-7 pt spread win 29- 27 vs non div 5 times won games s/u as a dog
after a 1- 9 point margin win 24- 22 vs non div foes hmmmmmmmmm

Cincy has two roads coming up @ phins on thurs. then @ ravens and Phins are one of thier worst Conf rival they only beat them once in past 12 years and failed to cover as a 6 1/2 point home fav. 0-4 ats vs Phins 1- 3 s/u just dont see jets hanging here after that win vs Patriots with that rule call against Pats but give Jets credit for warning officials about it before hand.

light tap on Bengals till i dig further in game stats and vs the spread handicapping

Cardinals - 2 1/2 vs Falcons hmmmmmmm feel falcons here s/u win

Vikings + 6 1/2 vs Packers hmmmmmmmm knowing that teams after whipping up huge DD wins vs losers like Browns Jags etc... go limp next game but can freeman adjust after one game in Vikes system

leaning home dog hard

Broncos - 14 vs Redskins fuggedabouttit RG 3 your going down expect a bad loss like they gave Eagles 52-20


mon night we keep that seperate but i'll favor Seattle to take out div Rival Rams for now Rams a mess right now no QB and losing players on offense plus defense

laters i gotta run will tighten up all games later with video as requested if i'm not daed on feet by then scrapping an ac some wire today to get ready to cash in tomorrow plus go deliver pizza for 1 1/2 hrs tonite closing.


These are just what i see happening in these games but the ones where my systems show strong edge take them


:0corn
 

StevieD

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I am a bit dizzy and will not attempt driving for another couple of hours but some good stuff there.
 

smurphy

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I like to pretend a frantic James Woods is narrating Scrapman posts.
 

cruisin

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(Did not read) so, what were the picks?

System plays weren't identified as system plays (at least I couldn't tell), so with all the reading (oof!) not quite sure. Awesome info, but lots of it. :0074:toast:
 

Hashish

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Any cliff notes of use for those of us who don't feel like giving ourselves a headache by trying to read that?
 

Scrapman

Rollingdembones
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nahhhhhhhh hasish no cliff notes making new post for today with short write ups with my LOCK OD DA WEEK WEEK WEEK echo echo
 
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