Week 8 NCAA

[Master Capper]

2009 Season Tally

68-64 +0.9 units (plays rated 1-3 stars)

Favorites 17-19

Dogs 24-24

Overs 12-11

Unders 15-10


2008 Season Tally College Football

138-93-6 +52.5 units (plays rated 1-3 stars)


Favorites 30-29-2

Dogs 49-33

Overs 30-14-2

Unders 29-17-2

Two winning weeks in a row going 15-9 last week, so perhaps the tide has turned.


Early Plays

all 2 units unless noted

Michigan +4.5


Kansas +6.5

 

[Master Capper]

Kansas St-3 (IMO Hansen will struggle on the road)

 

[Master Capper]

Stanford -6.5

I think that this line might bump up a couple of points, so grabbing it now.

 

[Master Capper]

Spang,


I dont see a thread started by you yet, so if your bumping around in here answer me thee questions:

A. Is Ball State good enough to be favored over anyone on the road? Their QB's are terrible, even against a rotten defense like BG last week.

B. Kent have any shot in Athens this weekend?

 

[spang]

Spang,


I dont see a thread started by you yet, so if your bumping around in here answer me thee questions:

A. Is Ball State good enough to be favored over anyone on the road? Their QB's are terrible, even against a rotten defense like BG last week.

B. Kent have any shot in Athens this weekend?

We think a lot alike on those two games.

I came very close to punching a ticket on Eastern at +3' and writing it up but didnt. This is a nice drop in class for EMU and I expected to see this as a pick. Hell , I will play them but pretty small ( prob half a unit)

I am also keeping an eye on Kent, I hate those assholes but even I have to admit that they have improved. They really should have beat Baylor down in Waco but commited too many penalties and made a couple of crucial mistakes. I look for OU to stub their toes soon so I think that ten is a very attractive number to be picking up. I just can't quite get over their tendancy to make a lot of errors. Might play them but it will be another small one.

Hope you have a good week !

 

[Irish]

GL this weekend MC

I am leaning the other way in the Mich game because I think the lions are a cornered team. They need a big statement win because of the iowa loss. The ohio state loss opens the door for them and they should come out with a lot to prove.

GL this weekend.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Master Capper]

Irish,

You could be right, I am going to reevluate that play. I really do not see PSU slowing down the Michigan offense since they could not stop Iowa.

 

[AL FARR]

Miami Fl. -6 over Clemson

Let down city. Last week was a must win for the
present staff. I know a lot of the staff and the O
corr. has been on hot seat. This team loves the
coach and played and worked their asses off last week. No way they can preform @ that level again.
I hate it for them. 5* play for me. Lots of extra work
last week will show up this week.

 

[Master Capper]

thanks AL, Im hitting it:mj06:

 

[LDB]

Stanford -6.5

I think that this line might bump up a couple of points, so grabbing it now.

leaning that way myself... good luck master

 

[Master Capper]

Another interesting tidbit on the Ball State and Eastern michigan game is that Ball States head coach Stan Parrish is currently on a 35 game losing streak as a head coach. He is 0-7 this year at Ball State and previously ended his coaching career at Kansas State by going 0-26-1.

 

[Irish]

MC
PSU was without two of the top LB's both should play this week and I think they really played with no heart up until that game. Did you see the hit put on by Lee last week? That was about 3 weeks of anger taken out in the first play. WOW

GL

Cheers
Irish

 

[Master Capper]

2009 SEASON TRENDS
NCAA (through October 17)
Home teams are 156-171-6 (27-24-2 last week)
Favorites are 159-176-7 (31-20-3 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 75-88-4 (11-10-2 last week)
Favorites of 20 or more are 25-34-1 (3-2-1 last week)
Home Favorites are 93-110-6 (16-9-2 last week)
Road Favorites are 61-63 (15-11 last week)
Teams in 2nd straight road games are 47-48-1 (7-7 last week)

 

[Master Capper]

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
All trends are Against the Spread unless noted:
Some pointspreads have been estimated and may not be accurate by game time
NCAA: Tulsa is 4-8 L12 as road favorites ? UTEP is 8-4 L12 as home underdogs
Florida State is 10-16 on the road since ?04 ? UNC is 1-14-1 S/U vs. FSU since ?83
Rutgers is 3-6 as road favorites since ?05 ? Army is 7-18 as home underdogs since ?03
UAB is 9-14 on the road since ?06 ? Marshall is 6-13-1 L20 as favorites
Akron is 10-16-1 L27 on the road ? Syracuse is 5-10-1 at home since ?07
Maryland is 6-13 L19 road games ? Duke is 7-17 L24 home games
Georgia Tech is 6-12 vs. Virginia since ?91 ? Virginia is 15-5 L20 as home underdogs
Clemson is 13-3 L16 as underdogs ? Miami, FL is 8-15 L23 games at home
Illinois is 9-5 L13 road games ? Purdue is 6-3 L9 vs. Illinois
Central Michigan is 0-4-2 as road favorites ? Bowling Green is 4-15 L19 home games
Indiana is 15-32-3 on the road since ?00 ? Northwestern is 3-11 L14 as favorites
Minnesota is 6-13 vs. Ohio St since ?86 ? Ohio St is 20-13 as double-digit favorites since ?05
South Florida is 7-2 L9 as underdogs ? Pittsburgh is 6-10 L16 as favorites
Connecticut is 6-13 as road dogs since ?04 ? West Virginia is 6-12-1 L19 as home favorites
Vanderbilt is 8-4-1 L13 as underdogs ? South Carolina is 14-8-2 L24 as favorites
Iowa State is 18-7 as double-digit dogs since ?04 ? Nebraska is 15-9 L26 as DD favorites
Ball State is 19-5 L24 road games ? Eastern Michigan is 3-13 L16 home games
Northern Illinois is 1-9 L10 road games ? Miami, OH is 5-12 L17 lined home games
Oklahoma State is 10-4 L14 as favorites ? Baylor is 3-11 L14 as home underdogs
Kent State is 14-20-1 on road since ?04 ? Ohio is 12-6 L18 home games
Buffalo is 9-1-1 L11 on the road ? Western Michigan is 3-8 L11 as home favorites
Louisiana Tech is 1-10 L11 road games ? Utah State is 6-0 L6 home games
Boston College is 10-6 vs. Notre Dame since ?87 ? Notre Dame is 5-11 L16 as home favorites
Tennessee is 8-15 vs. Alabama since ?86 ? Alabama is 10-21 as home favorites since ?04
Oregon 5-0 S/U and ATS L5 vs. Washington ? Washington is 23-16 as home dogs since ?81
Texas A&M is 7-21 vs. Texas Tech since ?81 ? Texas Tech is 74-50-2 at home since ?85
Penn State is 3-7 L10 vs. Michigan ? Michigan is 8-5 L13 as home underdogs
Oklahoma is 5-1 L6 as road favorites ? Kansas is 28-45-1 as home dogs since ?80
Texas is 5-8 L13 on the road ? Missouri is 35-26-1 as home underdogs since ?81
Wake Forest is 4-9-1 L14 as road favorites ? Navy is 10-24-2 as home dogs since ?89
San Diego State is 7-14 L21 road games ? Colorado State is 8-0 L8 lined home games
Air Force is 9-3 L12 vs. Utah ? Utah is 10-5 L15 home games
Idaho is 9-1 L10 as underdogs ? Nevada is 17-6-1 L24 at home
UCLA is 20-9-1 L30 as underdogs ? Arizona is 8-2 L10 at home
Washington State is 6-2 L8 vs. California ? California is 8-0 L8 as home favorites
Temple is 10-5 L15 road games ? Toledo is 28-12 L40 home games
Arkansas is 11-4 L15 vs. Mississippi ? Mississippi is 7-10-1 L18 as home favorites
Louisville is 8-3 L11 vs. Cincinnati ? Cincinnati is 1-5 L6 as home favorites
Tulane is 7-12-1 L20 vs. Southern Miss ? Southern Miss is 3-11 L14 as double-digit fav orites
Central Florida is 1-8-1 L10 as road favorites ? Rice is 17-11 L28 as home underdogs
Colorado is 6-14 L20 on the road ? Kansas State is 1-5 L6 lined home games
TCU is 16-21-3 on the road since ?03 ? BYU is 0-6 L6 home games
Florida is 1-5 L6 vs. Mississippi State ? Mississippi State is 5-1 L6 as home underdogs
SMU is 6-2 L8 vs. Houston ? Houston is 10-22-1 as double-digit favorites since ?92
Fresno State is 3-9 L12 as road favorites ? New Mexico State is 2-5 L7 as home underdogs
Auburn is 1-7 L8 on the road ? LSU is 2-12-1 L15 home games
UNLV is 3-7 L10 vs. New Mexico ? New Mexico is 10-16-1 L27 home games
Oregon State is 6-3 L9 vs. USC ? USC is 3-9 L12 following the Notre Dame game
Arizona State is 2-8-1 L11 as underdogs ? Stanford is 5-1 L6 as fav orites
Boise State is 0-4 L4 vs. Hawaii ? Hawaii is 16-10 as home underdogs since ?99
Florida Atlantic is 4-0 L4 vs. Louisiana ? Louisiana is 5-2 L7 home games
Florida International is 6-3 L9 as road underdogs ? Arkansas St is 2-5 L7 as home favorites
North Texas is 18-25 L43 on the road ? Troy is 13-7 L20 as home favorites
UL-Monroe is 9-4 L13 road games ? Kentucky is 40-50-1 as favorites since ?80
Western Kentucky is 3-2 L5 road games ? Middle Tennessee State is 10-5-1 L16 as favorites

 

[Master Capper]

One game that has me really stumped is the TCU @ BYU game. I have watched both play and TCU has looked very strong, but it worries me that the game is at BYU. Anyone have an opinion on the game? My power numbers only slightly favor TCU, and my total numbers project this game to be a total score in the 60's.

 

[Master Capper]

Cuse-9.5

 

[Master Capper]

Wake +3 (CS)

Washington +10

 

[Master Capper]

Rushing dogs this week:

FSU

Washington

UAB

Buffalo

Maryland

Temple

Arkansas

BC

Mich

AForce

Auburn

UCLA

Clemson

 

[Master Capper]

Anyone know why the Duke line is falling like a rock? The line is down to 3.5 at one of my books. Also, Jayhawks are up to a 9 point dog against the Sooners at home.

 

[AR182]

mc....

a lot of touts are coming out with their picks for the weekend & i think that's why the lines are so volatile....

thanks for the good stuff in your thread...


good luck....