'trends' since 98
'trends' since 98
Wrote these for a mate whose an NFL illiterate!....May as well post them here.
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh UNDER 47
League: 0-16 under! Home 3- fav off a bye! (Pittsburgh).
Av. Score 31.8!!...A full 9.3 points lower than the av. Total.
Logic: St. Louis have scored 34, 36 and 37 in their last 3 games?.But against 3 of the worst defenses in the league, and all at home. They have only played on the road twice this season, scoring 23 @ Seattle and 13 the only time they have played on grass. (@ NYG)
Pittsburgh have the second best defense in the league?allowing only 4.5 yards per play and 36.8% of 3rd downs converted. Seems a perfect time for a St. Louis scoring let down.
Pittsburgh have not scored more than 20 points in the last 5 weeks, averaging only 15.4. This doesn?t figure to improve against an under-rated Rams defense?They have the 8th best overall defense and allow only 32.9% of 3rd downs converted.
I think this total is very inflated, even without the bye stat?which is impossible to ignore!
Denver @ Baltimore UNDER 39.5
League: 2-9 UNDER** (Av. Total 31.2) away 3- dog off a 7+ SU loss as away 3+ dog. (Denver)
1-8 UNDER (Av. 29.6!) if the total is <40. (0-9 under this number!)
** 1-10 under this number?the 2 ?overs? being both by 2 points!!
League: 1-9 UNDER (Av. 36.1?inc. 3 OT?s!) home 3- fav off a 7+ SU loss as any away fav. (Balt)
Logic: Denver will start their 3rd string QB in this game (Kanell) after both Plummer and Buerlein were injured. It?s a very tough job for a rookie QB to start in the NFL, and will almost certainly lead to a very conservative game plan. They run the ball 50% of the time as it is, and that figures to increase dramatically this week.
This is good news for Baltimore who defend the run well (allowing only 3.5 yards per rush), but have problems against the pass.
Baltimore simply have no passing game! They pass for only 126 yards per game and rely on running the ball, resulting in long, time consuming drives.
I see this game playing out much like Baltimore/Kansas City did in the Ravens last home game which finished 10-17.
Cleveland @ New England UNDER 38
League: 2-10 UNDER (av. 32.9) home 3+ fav off away SU win in OT. (NE)
Logic: Cleveland have only topped 20 once this year, and gain only 4.5 yards per play. New England have allowed more than 20 only once (30 to a red-hot Tennesee) @ an average of 15.8, and allow 3rd down conversion at 32.3% (4th best in the league).
Cleveland have the best pass defense in the league, allowing only 159 yards per game, and also have a very good 3rd down conversion defense @ 33.7%. They have allow 17.3 points per game?but two big defensive lapses (33 and 26) came v. Baltimore (5.6 yards per rush) and San Diego last week (5.4ypr), the two most productive running teams in the league. New England only gain 3.8ypr.
Also both teams have very good red-zone defense, both allowing less TD?s than FG?s.
