Week 8.

[MrChristo]

Nearly half way there, and still swimming against a pretty strong current! :cursin:

21-19-1 (+2.50)

Washington @ NYG over 42 (1.97)

As I thought they might, Washington finally got to break the shackles last week.
Despite a low scoring average, here's the break down...
v. Chicago (3rd total D)...scored 9 (with Ramsey)
@ Dallas (7th total D)....scored 14 (ended with Brunell)
v. Seattle (10th total D)...scored 20
@ Denver (22nd total D...but 5th in run D)...scored 19
@ KC (27th total D)...scored 21 with 2 fumbles in red zone.
San Fran (32nd total D) ..scored 52!

So, anyone see a pattern here?
Now....(drum roll..)...they play the Giants, who are 31st in total D.

Now, I really do think Washington will win this game (I actually think they are about the best team in football right now...but more of that later), but NYG have averged over 34 ppg @ home so far (against some ordinary defenses it has to be said), and Eli is starting to look very comfortable indeed.
Anyway, the point is that Washington will score, and New York will score enough to send this one way over 42.

 

[MrChristo]

NO -2 (1.93)

League: 48-39-5 (av. win 3.3) home fav of 3 or less off a 10+ SU loss as an away dog of 7 or less. [NO]
19-4-3 (22-4 this no...av. win 8.4) if opp is off a home ats loss.
7-0-3 (10-0 this no...av. win 6.6) if opp is off a 10+ ats loss.

Bit of a simple case of home v. away here.
Miami are 0-3 away, with losses of 10, 6 and 14.
NO are 1-1 @ 'home', but the loss (v. Atlanta) was very misleading.
32 1st downs to 21
456 yards to 266
33.26 possession to 26.34...
...add to that Atlanta had a fumble return for a TD, a blocked FG returned for a TD and a 1 play 21 yard run TD off a turnover...and still only won by 3!!



*** League: 6-14-3 (Av. loss 11.5) away 7+ dogs off any ats loss as away dogs of 3 or less. [That goes for Green Bay, Buffalo & Baltimore...I'll go against 2 of them] ***

Cinci -8.5 (1.93)

The above 'trend' narrows down to: League: 1-7-1 (Av. loss 17.2) if the opp is off any ats loss. [GB] (inc. Jets @ Atlanta today)

I made the mistake of taking Cinci as a big home fav against a team who can run the ball well (Houston @ 4.5 ypc), but GB are running at just 3.1...and now with Green and Davenport both OUT, I just can't see how they will move the ball.
Cinci pass D has been very good, allowing just 5.74 y/pass.
The GB pass D tho has been less than spectacular, allowing 7.0 y/pass @ over 60%...bad news against Cinci who throw for 7.5 y/pass @ over 70%!..and will be looking to atone for a poor performance against their main division rival.

Pittsburgh -10 (2.04) (Quite happy to take the 10 at a good price)

The above 'trend' narrows down to: League: 2-10-3 (Av. loss 12.6) if the total is <40;
4-11-2 (Av. loss 12.2) if opp was last away...and;
1-7-2 (Av. loss 13.9) combining those 2.

Nothing too astounding in this one. Baltimore average 11.5 ppg and are 0-3 on the road against teams nowhere near the quality of the Steelers.
Of course their defense has kept them in a few games so far, but Pittsburgh will be able to exploit their average run D (allow 3.9 ypc), and now with Reed and Lewis both doubtful it'll be a big ask to reign in Pittsburgh's (under-rated!) NFL best 8.58 y/passing.
The Steelers are 10-3 ats inside the div in the last 3 years, and have beaten Baltimore @ home in the last 2 years by 13 and 19.

San Diego -6 (1.96)

Before I start, I think this spread is a little high. I'd have it at -4...and while this lack of 'value' is annoying, I'm still pretty sure SD will get it done.

League: 16-5-1 (av. win 11.4) any 3+ fav off an ats win but SU loss, if opp is off an upset SU win. [SD]

League: 31-36-2 (Av. loss 5.0) away dog of <7 off a 10+ SU and ats win as an away dog. [KC]
10-23-1 (Av. loss 6.0) if opp if off an ats win.

SD were stupidly unlucky to lose @ Philli, and are much better than their 3-4 record indicates.
And, after a promising start (but against, 2 fairly offensively inept teams), the KC defense seems to have reverted back to it's former self! They are 27th in total D and 30th in pass D, and have allowed 20+ in each of their last 4 @ 27 ppg.
The Chargers' on the other hand allow just 3.3 ypc and after a shaky start are playing some good pass D, keeping their last 4 opponents well below their season av's.
SD won this meeting at home last season 24-17, but were up 24-3 with 5 minutes to play.
They also had Flutie and Rivers @ QB (ie. no Brees), and also no Tomlinson!
SD have to start winning, where better place to start than against a division rival.

 

[MrChristo]

League: 15-4 over (av. total 45.2...av. score 54.5) home 7+ fav off a BYE when the total is >42. [NE & Carolina]

Specifically, the home, rested team scores big...av. 34.4 ppg!

Carolina v. Minni over 44 (1.93)

Given that Caroina already av. 24.7 ppg (26.3 @ home) and allow 22.7 pgg, it's not much of a stretch to see this one as a shoot-out.
Much like Washington, Minni have had a tough opening few weeks...
v. Tampa (3rd in points allowed)...scored 13
@ Cinci (5th)...scored 8
v. NO (29th)...scored 33
@ Atlanta (18th)..scored 10
@ Chicago (2nd)...scored 3
v. Green Bay (17th)...scored 23
...now play Carolina, who are 23rd in points allowed.

So, there's no reason why the Vikings' can't top 20 here, which won't leave their crappy defense many to let in

Buffalo @ New England over 44 (2.00)

Again, all 6 NE games so far have reached at least 43, and the totals have yet to adjust to their under-performing (injury depleted) defense, who have allowed 27.3 ppg!
They are actually 2nd worst for pass D (behind SF!), allowing 7.81 y/pass.
To make up for it they've had to pass 38.7 times a game, and throw at 7.64 y/pass (2nd best behind Pittsburgh).
Oakland scored 38 last week with a similar (slightly worse) passing game, and with Buffalo allowing 5.1 ypc, NE will have no problems keeping the chains moving.

Philli @ Denver under 43

League: 2-11 under (av. total 41.5...av. score 36.9) home fav of 7 or less off a SU loss of 3 or less as away dog of 3 or less, if opp is off any ats loss. [Denver]

Philli's offense is way too one-dimentional to move the ball against a solid Denver defense, who allow just 6.06 y/pass.
Despite 2 blow-outs against 2 horrible defensive teams (SF and KC)...and of course a gift 7 last week, they have had trouble putting up points.
I think the total has been a bit inflated because of Denver's scoring in the last couple of weeks, but again it's been against 2 poor defensive teams.
They hold teams to 16.5 ppg @ home, and are running over 55% of the time @ home, which would explain why 3 of 4 of their home games have gone under this number

Good Luck all

 

[ajoytoy]

great info as always Mr. C...gl on em

 

[chuckdman]

Love the info and write-ups as always. :clap:

Don't know how someone can put on $$ on a team like New Orleans though. They seem to get the shaft each and every game. I would think at one point they just crack and start making even more mistakes.

Good luck this week bro! :mj14:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

What's the story C ???.......you're on 3 'overs'!!!!!

 

[trolln4walii]

Nice info Mr C. Don't do alot of totals but that Wash/NYG game jumped out at me too. Like the way the Skins turned on the "O" last week (even if it was the 9ers) and the Giants are a scoring machine with Eli. Expect this one to go up soon. Like the call on the Saints too. Still juggling that one. GL on all your plays :mj14:

 

[bombercoops]

Was gonna chip in on the 'over' situation also pawa! Did ya have a few 151's while capping mate? lol! Will be on most of the same sides in teasers mate and looking forward to the sweat as always. GL with em' mate.

 

[MrChristo]

lol! You blokes definately crossed my mind when I was clicking the 'accept' button!

So...why not go overboard....(groan)....

Oaktown @ Tennessee over 45.5 (2.00)

Both teams have horrible defenses as it is (both allow over 7 y/pass @ over 60%), and now Oakland's has got a whole lot worse.
The Titans' have allowed 20+ in all but one game (v. Baltimore), @ 25.3 ppg, so Oakland should be able to put up some big numbers, like Cinci did last week.
In 2 away games so far, Oakland have allowed 23 and 30.
The total is a bit low because of McNair's status, but Volek has been there for a long time, and is more than adequate replacement (if in fact McNair isn't right).
Last meeting, last season (@ Oakland) ended 40-35...with, as it happens, Volek @ QB.
He went 40/60 for 492 and 4 TD's!!
Both teams should have plenty of success against inferior defenses, so 46 should be well within reach.

Thanks for the feedback guys, appreciate it.

Good luck to us all.

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

Nice writeups as usual MrC. GL with all the plays and I hope you cash in on all of em