week 8

EXTRAPOLATER · Wednesday at 3:32 AM

===*===
2025 NFL: 58-63-2 +694.60 (latest, wk7: 18-7 +1070.36)
--straight: 20-14-2 [sides: 17-14-1 (fave:12-12-1, dog:5-2) totals: 1-0-1 (ov:x-y, un:1-0-1) tt 1-0-0 (over:1-0) player props: 1-0]
--teasers: 29-25 [6, 6.5 & 7pts: 10-15, T3/10: 13-7, T4/13: 6-3]
--parlays: 9-24
===*===

Last week was rather enjoyable as I couldn't miss a teaser if my life depended on it. Well, hit 8 of 9 anyways, missing only 1 leg of 25. Parlays were also solid as some late defensive stops saved me all over. Hit Mahomes yards prop--counted in straights--but nowhere to be found on other 6 player props I uncovered as I was buried on 5 of 6, fortunately just killing 2 smaller parlays. Panthers -105 moneyline counted as fave, as I figure it's only true dog if you're getting points OR have a moneyline at +100 or better; sorta arbitrary. Stats need oversight.

Changed my tunes and now sitting here undecided whether or not to share some messy notes. Speaking of stats need oversight, the following info is not proprietary information so I'll post it--messy, as mentioned. Was first look at week and includes each team's record, points scored for & against, strength of schedule ranking, opponent passer rating, and 3 rather questionable predictive power ranking spreads. I added in the 3 points for home field to the ppr spreads which we could argue about another time; e.g. on TNF the first predictor actually ranks the Vikings better while the other 2 both favored the Chargers, as shown by the latter 2 being above the +3 given. If I use those going forward then I should refer to them as Totally Unreliable Spread Handicaps, or TUSH 1,2, and 3.

==========(record;for-against(sos)OPR +if improving last 3, -if worse last 3)TUSH1/2/3*
*giving flat +3 for home field

thurs 8:15 vikings(3-3;145-125(26)101.0-)@Chargers(4-3;151-163(19)79.8- ) LAC-0.8/-5.2/-4.8
-Wentz 7-0 TNF?!(cbs pod); Joe Alt prob.return
---
sun 1pm:
jets(0-7;129-183(25)106.5)Bengals(3-4;136-214(8)101.6-)Cin-5.8/-3.9/-4.4
-Chance Rain
49ers(5-2;145-138(12)101.2)@Texans(2-4;127-88(4)68.3+)Hou-6.6/-5/-6.1
bears(4-2;152-155(22)96.3+)@Ravens(1-5;144-194(1)108.4-)Balt-4.1/-6.5/-5.9
-Slight Chance Rain Showers
dolphins(1-6;140-205(28)113.9+)@Falcons(3-3;110-120(9)75.1)Atl-9.3/-6.1/-8.6
-Slight Chance Rain Showers(RETRACTABLE ROOF);Penix bone bruise;BIJAN ROBINSON props
bills(4-2;167-137(31)92.2)@Panthers-QBout?ADalton backup(4-3;145-152(30)87.1-)buff-3.8/-3.8/-4.9
-Slight Chance Rain Showers
giants(2-5;153-177(10)87.6)@Eagles(5-2;170-165(2)80.1)Phil-11.0/-5.7/-10.8
-Slight Chance Rain Showers
browns(2-5;113-152(18)94.3+)@Patriots(5-2;181-133(32)102.0)NE-9.3/-8.8/-7.5
-Slight Chance Rain Showers
---
4:05 buccaneers(5-2;174-175(3)98.3)@Saints(1-6;125-186(21)104.7+)tb-7.7/-5.6/-4.1
4:25 titans(1-6;96-192(11)101.3-)@Colts(6-1;232-140(29)88.4)Ind-16.4/-16.1/-13.2
4:25 cowboys(3-3-1;222-206(15)110.6+)@Broncos(5-2;163-127(27)82.8)Den-4.8/-3.4/-3.5
-Slight Chance Rain Showers
---
8:20 packers(4-1-1;158-125(14)93.2-)@Steelers(4-2;150-140(24)92.0)gb-1/-0.6/pk
-Slight Chance Rain Showers
---
mon 8:15 commanders-QBout?(3-4;180-170(20)105.0)@Chiefs(4-3;186-124(13)91.0-)KC-8.8/-8.5/-8.8
---byes:Raiders,Jaguars,Lions,Rams,Cardinals,Seahawks
==========

I've got a gaggle of plays in already but I'm going to submit this as it is ugly as sin and temptation to edit may overwhelm; first choice is that scoring for and against, which would be much easier to consider if on a per game basis; next, I should have kept my hands off the TUSH and left them neutral but, again, home field should be worth something in almost every case--travel alone, for visitor--not to mention I figured this mess would be mine alone.

EXTRAPOLATER · Wednesday at 4:58 AM

---
Chargers -3 -108 108/100
---
Bengals -6 -115 230/200
Falcons -7 -110 110/100
Eagles -7 +100 100/100
...
cowboys +151 100/151
---
=648(5)

T2/6 Bengals -0.5 / Patriots -1 -130 65/50
T2.6 49ers@Texans un48 / bills@Panthers un52.5 -110 55/50
T3/10 49ers@Texans un52 / Colts -4.5 / cowboys +13.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 bears +17 / bills@Panthers un56.5 / Chiefs -0.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 bears +17 / Colts -4.5 / packers@Steelers un55 -130 65/50
T2/6 Falcons -1 / bills -1.5 -130 65/50
T3/6 Falcons -1 / Eagles -1 / Patriots -1 +160 50/80 (this one is +100 w/3 monelines)
T2/6 bills -1.5 / Eagles -1 -130 65/50
T2/6 bills -1.5 / Patriots -1 -130 65/50
T3/10 bills@Panthers un56.5 / browns@Patriots un50.5 / Colts -4.5 -130 65/50
T3/6 bills -1.5 / Colts -8 / Chiefs -4.5 +160 50/80
T3/6.5 Patriots -0.5 / cowboys +10 / Chiefs -4 +140 50/70
=725(12)

P3 Bengals ov24.5 -108 / Eagles ov24.5 -123 / browns un16.5 -112 <+561> 30/168.28
P2 1Q bills -0.5 -110 / 1H Falcons -5.5 -105 <+272> 40/109.09
P2 1H bills -4.5 +105 / 1H Patriots -4.5 +100 <+310> 40/124
P3 bears ov20.5 -133 / Colts ov29.5 -133 / Broncos un26.5 +115 <+560> 30/167.95
P2 buccaneers -4.5 +107 / packers -3 -110 <+295> 40/118.07
P2 1H Colts -9.5 -105 / 1H cowboys -1.5 +155 <+398> 40/159.14
=220(6)

===*===

by risk:
[325]bills incl 1Q,1H
[315]Colts incl 1H,tt
[300]Patriots incl 1H,ttu (opposition team total under)
[295]Bengals
[285]cowboys incl 1H,ttu
[265]Falcons incl 1H
[245]Eagles incl tt
[185]bills@Panthers un
[165]Chiefs
[160]bears incl tt
[120]49ers@Texans un
[108]Chargers
[65]browns@Patriots un
[65]packers@Steelers un
[40]buccaneers
[40]packers

--[LAC] google claims that Herbert has faced more blitzes this season than any other QB, meaning he should be well-versed in being pressured--dude did top 400 yards last week so he is not the issue but, ffsakes, where is that allegedly vaunted defense?...Wentz might be a bit of help in that regard, though he does have ultra-capable receivers and some bewildering 7-0 record as a starter on Thursday Night Football, according to CBS

--[CIN] Tyrod Taylor coming in for the 2nd half did not give the Jets any mojo at all, so him taking over here is little threat; Jets D has been an illusion the past 2 weeks and should take the Red Pill Sunday

--[ATL] Penix suffering from a bone bruise but him or replacement X should have no problem handing off to Bijan Robinson, who had a rare bad game last week; Falcons much safer play at home and disinterested Dolphins should be harpooned quite easily

--[PHI] bad spot for the Giants, here, as Eagles offense made a statement last week vs Vikings, and they must be licking at their chops to take revenge on a club that shit the bed in the 4th quarter last week and is probably still trying to recover; I'm expecting Eagles D not to feel sympathy for Dart and friends, here, and to be looking to remind the kid that he is still a rookie

--[dal] looks more of a coin-toss, to me, as the unstoppable force of the Cowboys meets the immovable object of the Broncos D; I'm not sold on this Broncos offense and they sure seem to be having some head-case moments early and often in games

Not much more to add, for sides, as my risk list looks pretty square; 7 of 8 biggest risks are some massive spreads; some teams just look hopeless, presently, and I'm looking for a way to hate-bet on them. That Bears-Ravens game should be fascinating if Lamar returns; it will have my attention in the early window if we get such. Bills and Chiefs on collision course the following week but not expecting look-ahead woes for Brother Bill due to bye week repairs of recent adversity.

Not majorly confident on totals, and I can't remember my excuse for that Packers-Steelers under roll, save that Packers offense has been rather underwhelming. Panthers D will need to show up for survival against Bills, and I figure that the Bills must have spent the bye week conducting seances and other voodoo in order to fix their struggling defense, not to mention the return of a couple key bodies in that regard. Browns and Patriots should deliver on the D; no-shit Sherlock with the listed 40.5.

Hands of fate called for unsportsmanlike conduct, but let's see 'em square the circle on this bird flip. Not quite right.

Good Luck

EXTRAPOLATER · Thursday at 3:30 PM

I had to take a cold shower after last week's player props debacle, but I'm back in the ring to take another swing for National Tight End's day.

P2 Bills Dalton Kincaid anytime TD +225 /
/ Eagles Dallas Goedert anytime TD +200 <+875> 20/175
P2 Colts Tyler Warren anytime TD +100 /
/ Cowboys Jake Ferguson anytime TD +175 <+450> 24/108
P4 Falcons Kyle Pitts ov44.5 rec yards -115 /
/ Colts Tyler Warren ov57.5 rec yards -115 /
/ Packers Tucker Kraft ov49.5 rec yards -110 /
/ Chiefs Travis Kelce ov42.5 rec yards -115 <+1147> 16/183.60

Justin Herbert might have found a new toy with his TightE as well; O.G. could be a great outlet if he's under pressure for tonight's one night stand. I'll pound sand with that Vidal confidence again, one more time, as the Vikings run defense is not good based on those complex metrics which are over my head.

P3 Chargers Oronde Gadsden II ov40.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Bengals Jamar Chase ov88.5 rec.yards -115 /
/ Panthers Rico Dowdle ov62.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 <+553> 20/110.69
P3 Chargers Chargers Kimani Vidal ov50.5 rushing yards -118 /
/ Bengals Chase Brown ov54.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Colts Jonathan Taylor ov121.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 <+545> 20/109.15

Good Luck

EXTRAPOLATER · Saturday at 4:48 AM

I hope that wasn't distasteful. Nevermind discretionary valor.

Latest news of note I've heard:
--key players on both sides of the ball ruled out for Titans; DT Simmons & WR Ridley
--Atl's Penix sounds doubtful, so Kirk Cousins may be back for another swing
--Eagles will be missing key WR AJ Brown, but may have returning D-men; if Barkley isn't shot then ground game against porous Giants run D may help chew up some possessions and keep the score down, although I confess to my having way too much confidence in the Eagles D to wake up sooner
--Andy Dalton starting at QB for Panthers, at home to Bills who are coming off bye
--Bears already struggling defense will be missing key bodies in pass coverage; Lamar Jackson probable to return; Ravens off bye and desperate, against an uncertain team that has won 4 straight, making this an intriguing early-window experience
===

T3/10 Bengals +3 / Colts -4.5 / Chiefs -3 -130 65/50
T3/10 49ers@Texans un52 / browns@Patriots un50.5 / Chiefs -3 -130 65/50
T3/6 Falcons -1.5 / Patriots -1 / Chiefs -6.5 +160 75/120
T3/10 giants@Eagles un54 / Colts -4.5 / cowboys +13.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 cowboys@Broncos un61 / packers@Steelers un55 / Chiefs -3 -130 65/50
---
P3 Patriots Kayshon Boutte ov30.5 receiving yards -118 /
/ Falcons Bijan Robinson ov36.5 receiving yards -118 /
/ Cowboys Javonte Williams ov61.5 rush yards -115 <+538> 20/107.62
P3 Cowboys George Pickens ov57.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Steelers DK Metcalf ov56.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Chiefs Tyquan Thornton ov8.5 receiving yards -110 <+567> 20/113.45
===

Only new action, beyond those player props, are the unders at Philly and Denver. It's hard for me to envision a Broncos game hitting 60 points, despite the crazy outcome last week. Eagles and Giants should both focus on running which should milk the clock, and key weapon A.J. Brown's absence will severely limit the Eagles explosive plays.

I might add some final touch-ups but already set up for some good chaos. I think I need more straight action and I might be in for some book revenge here. Just seems to be a bunch of minus-TD plays this week against absolute trash-heaps, so I'll rock with a little reckless overconfidence, especially after week 7's apparent gimme's. Last week before going under the knife so my reckless abandon has taken hold. Nothing serious; just a brain transplant, if I'm lucky. Looking forward to the sleep, at least.

Good Luck

EXTRAPOLATER · Saturday at 5:47 AM

I had to edit a Tyquan typo, which got me thinking about the play. Looked again and still at the same number. Additional weapons back for Chiefs, but 8.5 yards for Thornton is one catch, which has been absent in only 1 of the Chiefs first 7 games. Not necessarily Santa Claus, but beautiful.

Also interested in the TightE's to score--might have been the beer--but Eagles Goedert still at 2-to-1 for an anytime TD and of his 5, he's scored 2 over the past 3, not to mention that AJ Brown's absence increases this probability a fair bit. Cowboys Ferguson facing a tough Broncos D but, in the red zone, I figure that this huge man can outwork the defenders to haul one in; he's scored 6 on the season which includes 5 TD's over his past 3 games. Colts should be able to do as they please and TE Warren has reached the end zone for a tuddie in each of the past 3 games, and the Titans resistance should be apologetic at best.

Chiefs Tyquan Thornton ov8.5 receiving yards -110 110/100
P2 Eagles Dallas Goedert anytime TD +200 /
/ Cowboys Jake Ferguson anytime TD +175 <+725> 40/290
Colts Tyler Warren anytime TD +100 50/50

Can't touch the bottom.

Good Luck

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