Week 9.. BOOKIE CLOSER

[Lester Diamond]

Week 9 early strong play.
This is my first post at this website. I'm normally strictly a professional poker player,and College football and College hoops handicapper but this game looks to strong to resist.
49ers +2.5
Reasons are these. Rams playing second straight road game from eastern half of the country to the west coast this week. Throw in the fact you got a dome team built for speed playing a pissed off 49er team on grass.

More to Follow

 

[Lester Diamond]

This is surely going to be a contrarian play.. Which makes me like it even more. Joe public is going to on the rams. they will be impressed with their win against shittsburgh. The fact is the rams coach is one of the leagues worst in game decision makers.
the line will move more in my favor thanks to public settement on the rams.. This game is a no brainer for me. Does not mean it it wins, but Iwill be investing in it.


The 49ers also come big in 3 trends that I follow, also posted by GM in here.

The 49ers come up in three systems that I follow closely, that a guy documents on another site..

#1Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (47-30 ATS, 61.0% since '92)

#2Play on a home dog, if they lost SU as a road favorite last week (13-4-1, 76.5% since '98).

And the biggest one

Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games. This trend has been a moneymaker for the last 20 yrs.

 

[GM]

Good luck this week. Who's kicking for the Niners this week?

 

[Crazy Fingers]

I believe the Niners signed Todd Pederson. Still not sure why they ousted Chandler in the first place. They should have just signed someone to do kickoffs. :shrug:

 

[statedogg]

Like the rams

Like the rams

I gotta say I like the Rams in this one. Faulk is coming back and the Rams are rolling right now. Martz is a poor in game coach, but Erickson is a poor anytime coach. Garcia is questionable, T.O. not much of a team player, and Pochman kicking for the first time. Gotta like the Rams. Yeah the number seems like a trap. The obvious lines in the NFL have been cashing every week....TEN, and Carolina last week. Maybe you are right, but the Rams look like a suited Big Slick in the hole to me...
GL
Statedogg

 

[hogman14]

The only thing that scares me is the 49ers secondary....absolutely porous. I mean, Mike Rumph is still recieving an NFL paycheck. The betting line aside, 49ers are an overrated team, and always are to Vegas. Some bettors still feel they are the westcoast powerhouse they once were, I think. Regardless, the Rams are due for a letdown, and play like shit on grass, generally speaking. Good call, Lester, concerning Mike Fartz, guy should have been canned after losing the SB....San Fran needs this going into the bye week. They post a 6-1 record by the numbers before the break, and it's safe to say the public jumped the shark after that Arizona disaster. On the other hand, St. Louis is just picking up more and more steam with the public. They're attempting to cover their 2nd straight road game, and everyone is picking them for the super bowl this year again.

Looks like slightly more than a 3:1 public take on the Rams. The public is also POUNDING the posted total of 45.5

Garcia listed as questionable.

Should be able to get on 49ers +3 (at least) by game time. Wait for the squares to keep pushing it up.

Good luck fellas

 

[johnnyonthespot]

I agree that this looks like a good spot to take the Niners but I just can't bring myself to do it. This is a very schizophrenic team right now and, because he's such a tough SOB, nobody knows how hurt Garcia really is. And yes, Martz does make some, ahem, interesting game decisions, but right now St. Louis is looking as good as they have since 2001. The impressive thing is not that they beat Pittsburgh outdoors, but that they did it with the rain beating down all game long.

I always say that I need to jump on games like this that seem counterintuitive but are backed by solid trends but I always end up on the other side or on the sidelines. I'll take the sidelines approach to this one.

GL2U

 

[bej0101]

rams win this easily..a much different team with bolger at the healm

 

[baltimore buc]

"Joe public is going to on the rams. they will be impressed with their win against shittsburgh."

i though the same thing last week when I played pgh. '

 

[Mjolnir]

lost alot of money on schizophrenic teams, too hard to trust them. dont know if i trust any of these teams.:shrug:

 

[ELVIS]

gl, bro, but i will not lose $$ again betting on the niners. they are not the only team in the bay sucking this year.

 

[SmashMouth]

Good Luck and welcome.. I agree with the 49ers.

 

[Lester Diamond]

Saints +8 550 to win 500

Saints moneyline
risk 150 to win 450

 

[Lester Diamond]

Garcia out.. Waiting for the line to move in our favor. Should get a 4 by tomorrow.

 

[SmashMouth]

Several outs have hung 4's already. Wait until Joe Public gets on this and runs tomorrow and Saturday. Maybe I can get +5?? This will be huge play for me and maybe a moneyline play too.
Rattay at this point may be an upgrade as Garcia has been playing banged up.

Glad I pulled the trigger on the Saints at +8 and the moneyline earlier as that line is now dropping.

 

[Lester Diamond]

Where are you seeing the 4's at SM?? My book took the game off the board. I do agree with what you said about the line going up. In fact I said the same thing on another board.
You're on The Saints also? That worries me.

 

[Lester Diamond]

Got the 49ers at 5 (best Line)
1100 to win 1000

 

[MR.MANHATTAN]

now u tell me..

now u tell me..

i have 3 tix waiting on the RAMS.....boise st,rockets,south fla.,RAMS

boise ,s.fla,RAMS...........boise,south fla,fla, RAMS......toatal 750$ total...i'm freerolling to start....so should i hedge? o yea i have rams -2 1/2, rams -3/...can get 49ers at +4 1/2 .or maybe 5 in the morn...any opinions?

 

[MR.MANHATTAN]

u can 4 1/2

u can 4 1/2

right now........5 by the morning in vegas.......

 

[Lester Diamond]

49ers Money line starting to look fat