WEEK 9 INFO

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NFL Week 9's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 9's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 9's biggest betting mismatches


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-13, 51.5)

New Orleans rush offense vs. Carolina's rush defense

The Saints? vastly improved rushing game has played a major role in the club's perfect start. New Orleans is fourth in the NFL in rushing offense after ranking 28th in this category a year ago. With three capable runners in the backfield, the Saints have plenty of ground options. The squad's 14 rushing touchdowns lead the league.

The inconsistent Panthers are 24th in the NFL in rushing defense. The loss of defensive tackle Ma'ake Kemoeatu to an Achilles injury in the preseason has been a factor in the club's inability to stuff the run up front this season.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-3, 44.5)

Arizona's rush defense vs. Matt Forte

While the Cardinals did struggle to stop Carolina's rushing attack last week, Arizona is still eighth in the NFL in rushing defense. New defensive coordinator Billy Davis has brought some swagger to the unit in 2009. The improved defense has helped Arizona to a perfect 3-0 record on the road.

The arrival of Jay Cutler figured to open up some better running opportunities for second-year back Matt Forte. The Bears (26th in NFL in rushing offense) are still trying to get Forte on track in 2009. He is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season. Forte's combined average per attempt in close defeats to the Packers and Falcons was less than two yards per rush.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, 44.5)

Baltimore's pass offense vs. Cincinnati's pass defense

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has been able to bring some balance to the Baltimore offense in 2009. The club is 10th in the league in passing offense with Flacco completing 66 percent of his throws.

The Bengals were able to hold Flacco to under 200 yards in Week 5 at Baltimore but Cincinnati is vulnerable through the air with the NFL's 30th-ranked passing defense. The recent loss of sacks leader Antwan Odom (eight sacks) to an Achilles injury has limited the team's ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10, 43.5)

Green Bay's pass defense vs. Josh Freeman

While the numbers may seem a little hollow to Packers fans based on their two performances against Brett Favre this season, Green Bay will enter Sunday's matchup with the ninth-ranked passing defense in the league. The defense has already feasted on bottom-feeders St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland this season (won each game by average score of 31-7).

First-round draft choice Josh Freeman will be thrown into the fire for his first NFL start for the league's only remaining winless team. The rookie signal-caller will try to bring some life to the NFL's 23rd-ranked passing offense but top receiver Antonio Bryant is questionable for the contest due to a knee injury.

San Diego Chargers at New York Giants (-4.5, 48)

New York's third-down offense vs. San Diego's third-down defense

The Giants offense is seventh in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage in 2009. The club's strong offensive balance has enabled New York to stay on the field a little longer than most squads in the league.

San Diego is 28th in the league in third-down conversion percentage defense. The number is a little more alarming based on the fact that the Chargers have already played the woeful Raiders offense twice this season. With a cross-country trip to face a good team that has lost three straight games, San Diego's defense could be in for a long day at Giants Stadium.
 

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NFL Week 9 Betting Numbers

NFL Week 9 Betting Numbers

NFL Week 9 Betting Numbers


The number of teams with a perfect record so far in the NFL season has been whittled down to two (three if you include the Tampa Bay Bucs, but they?re hardly bragging about theirs).

The Indianapolis Colts are one of the teams strutting a perfect mark, while over in the NFC the New Orleans Saints have yet to taste defeat.

The Saints maintained perfection last Monday night by downing fellow NFC Southerners Atlanta; they won straight up, 35-27, but weren?t able to cover the spread, which hovered between 11 and 12.5 heading into the game. ?Over? bettors were smiling though as they cashed their tickets on the Total of 56.

That took the Saints record to 6-1 against the spread heading into this weekend?s game vs. the Carolina Panthers. Online sportsbook SPORTSBETTING.com has New Orleans listed as a 13-point favorite in this divisional tilt, with the Over/Under at 52.

While it certainly doesn?t appear history will repeat itself in this matchup, the Panthers have been damn impressive when traveling to face the Saints?really impressive.

The Saints have not done much marching in their last stretch of home games against Carolina, stumbling to seven-straight losses (0-7 straight up) and eight-straight losses against the spread (0-8 ATS).

Clearly these are two different teams than over the past number of years, but those are compelling numbers. I won?t be putting any money on the Panthers on the moneyline, but getting 13-points does look appealing.

Can the Panthers make it nine straight pointspread covers on the road vs. the Saints? The sports betting public doesn?t think so, as almost 70% of the early action has been laying the points and betting on the home side (according to SPORTSBETTING.com)

Also worth noting is that New Orleans is only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when favored by 8.5-points or more.

Over/Under Trends:

Looking at the Over/Under numbers for this one: with Drew Brees behind center, New Orleans owns the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, putting up an average of 39-points a game.

- In their last nine games against divisional opponents, they have a mark of 7 Overs and 2 Unders.

- The Saints have been a profitable ?Over? play the last couple of seasons on home field, sporting a mark of 14 Overs and 3 Unders in their most recent 17 home starts.

As you might expect, the ?Over? is a popular bet heading into this matchup, with 76% of all the Total betting volume targeted to the ?Over?.

Dallas vs. Philadelphia

Sunday night will see a battle for top spot in the NFC East when the Dallas Cowboys travel to Philly to play the Eagles, who are favored by 3-points with a Total of 48.

The Eagles have dominated in the Cowboys? last 10 visits to Lincoln Financial, with an 8-2 mark SU and 6-3-1 ATS. Dallas hasn?t only had problem on the road against the Eagles either, with a record of 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games overall.

These two have connected to cash ?Over? tickets on a regular basis when meeting in the City of Brotherly Love. In the last eight games between Dallas and Philly at Lincoln Financial Field, there have been 7 Overs, no Unders and 1 push.

Early betting action on this one is tilted to the home team and the ?Over? (68% and 73% respectively).

With half of the NFL season completed, the races for playoff berths will begin turning up the heat on all the games. .

Enjoy all the betting action.
 
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