week 9 plays

vanbasten

vanbasten

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 21, 2001
1,567
1
0
pennsylvania
week 8 3-3 (-2.8 units)
overall 36-25-1 (+29.85 units)

5* 2-0
3* 15-7-1
2* 12-10
1* 7-7
1/2* 0-1

week 1 6-2-1 (+8.80 units)
week 2 4-4 (+0.85 units)
week 3 6-4 (+9.20 units)
week 4 2-4 (-1.60 units)
week 5 5-2 (+6.50 units)
week 6 4-4 (-0.90 units)
week 7 6-2 (+9.80 units)
week 8 3-3 (-2.80 units)

early advantages look like this on sides and totals...

eagles - definite play, maybe 5*
houston +
dallas - definite play
ne +
detroit + (don't like it, oak has failed to cover and they are strong ats off a bye)
no +
nyj +
balt -
miami -
chi-

balt/jax O - definite play
hou/car O
det/oak O
dall/wash O
chi/sd O
sf/sl U
ny/ny U
minn/gb O
ne/den O
phil/atl O
cinn/az O

good luck to all:)
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 21, 2001
1,567
1
0
pennsylvania
played...

played...

eagles -4.5 5*

don't see this line going anywhere but up. 5 not a key number, but i want the half point, so i played it now. will try to follow up with why, when i have some time.

bej...thanks, gl to you.

good luck to all:)
 
N

Nolan Dalla

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 7, 2000
1,201
2
0
Washington, DC/Las Vegas, NV
balt/jax O - definite play
hou/car O
det/oak O
dall/wash O
chi/sd O
sf/sl U
ny/ny U
minn/gb O
ne/den O
phil/atl O
cinn/az O


Vanbasten:

I realize these are just leans for right now, but I'm curious as to why you like so many OVERS this week? Is there something about mid-season that makes you lean OVER or have you uncovered an OVER trend that we do not know about? It would take a lot of time to break down each of these games, but I'm more interested in why you have a general tendency to lean OVER on so many games?

PS -- I'm not being critical, especially since my UNDERS have been torched this season -- just wanting a different perspective.

Thanks,


Nolan Dalla
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 21, 2001
1,567
1
0
pennsylvania
Nolan...

Nolan...

earlier this season i use to call these initial post "leans". a couple of weeks ago, i thought it best to actually call them "advantages". these initial advantages are based on numbers i get early in the week (i pay for this info). after comparing them to the weeks posted lines, i come up with a ps advantage on sides and totals. usually 1 point to 3 points, sometimes more (the most this year was a 7 point side advantage when chicago played against seattle on 10/19 getting 11. my numbers had this game at 4, 4.5. i didn't play it because chi hurt me too much early season. they ended up covering, losing the game by 7). the first few weeks, i would do this calculation and a little bit of homework, and would post fewer "early leans" based on this. what was happening, (after more in depth analysis throughout the week), i found i was misleading myself, because not enough work was done by me before i made these "early lean posts", and i didn't want to mislead others. that's why i decided to post all my advantages, based on my numbers alone (no additional handicapping included).

now why so many overs? not sure, it's been skewed to more "overs" than "unders" most of this season (not the case over the past few years, as it usually balances out), and i've kept this in mind.

good luck to you.
 
Last edited:
N

Nolan Dalla

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 7, 2000
1,201
2
0
Washington, DC/Las Vegas, NV
Chris:

Thanks for the satisfactory explanation.

I can understand why you would put many of these game totals in the high 30s and low 40s, given the way teams are throwing the ball. Pass interference calls are also up 35 percent over last season (which was the highest in history), so the league is definitely shifting towards OVER plays. Defensive secondarys are also very weak overall (there aren't but 3-4 teams with decent pass defenses and many are flat out terrible). I also think the new surfaces that are made of that awful synthetic grass (now in Detroit, Chicago, Seattle, Philadelphia, and some other stadiums) helps offenses. You very well may be onto something.

Thanks again,


Nolan Dalla
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 21, 2001
1,567
1
0
pennsylvania
how i cap o/u...

how i cap o/u...

nolan...

i look at offensive and defensive stats and matchups, when looking at o/u. i also look at past games, and trends as well, only applying the ones that i feel have merit, and fade or ignore trends that don't.

weak secondaries come into play on totals for me, but moreso injuries from week to week in the secondary or defensive line might make an over a play for me if my numbers support it. a new or recent injury can be harder for a defense to adapt to, whereas weak secondaries can improve with practice.

"the way teams are throwing the ball", if you mean more attempts than past years, that depends on the team and the offense they run. teams that are installing a new offense - i wait to see results(or look at the under). i don't put too much stock in it, as i feel teams that run and pass equally, will have better success over the long haul, winning more games and scoring more points.

"the pass interference calls being up", you may be onto something there, but i'm not sure how we can cap that for each particular game. follow the ref crew and track their tendencies? give a point or two edge across the board? maybe the latter, but i haven't let it sway me over/under as of yet.

imo, i wouldn't put too much emphasis on these new surfaces. i've played on them, and am still playing on them, and they react more like grass than turf. old astroturf is much faster than this field turf. i like the field turf personally. it's true, drains well, and it is softer to land on, but it's not as fast, or quick as astroturf, which gives rb's and receivers the advantage when cutting.

good luck to you.
 
Last edited:
vanbasten

vanbasten

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 21, 2001
1,567
1
0
pennsylvania
thanks anders...hope all's well down under.

played...

jax/balt over 37 3*
houston/car over 37 2*

dallas -4 3*
houston +7 2*

depending on weather in chi, will play it over, but calling for 40% chance of rain. might play a unit on det + and saints +, but want to wait until tomorrow.

good luck to all:)
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 21, 2001
1,567
1
0
pennsylvania
adding...

adding...

chi/sd over 39 1*

looks like 60% chance of rain/showers. if it isn't raining by gametime might add a couple of units, but chances are will just stick with what i got.

huge consensus on philly and dallas today, but sticking to my guns there as well. have had many strong leans become "no plays" this season (ie. tenn and minny) that have won in spite of this, hope i don't get bit in the arse.

all plays...

philly -4.5 5*

dallas -4 3*
jax/balt O 37 3*

hou/car O 37 2*
hou +7 2*

chi/sd O 39 1*

good luck to all:)
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 21, 2001
1,567
1
0
pennsylvania
nole, imin4abuck,

made philly play on wednesday, b4 i could get a good read on consensus...does it scare me? not really, bothers me a little, but have passed on high consensus plays previously that have won handily (tenn last week).

i have philly with a +5 ps advantage. aside from that, i have alot to support it as well. sticking to my guns here. like eagles and mcnabb on road, like mcnabb in dome, like secondary sit. in atl, as well as other problems they are having. not having westbrook might have gotten philly backers another point, but staley and buckhalter are solid. eagles receivers are hungry, as everyone's stats are down. mcnabb's thumb and confidence are healthy, just see this as a breakout spot for philly O.

need philly special teams to play well and no turnovers, aside from that, mismatches all over the field.

good luck to you.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Bet on MyBookie
Top