Week 9 System Plays

[GM]

The plays went a combined 14-11 last week. I didn't count any plays on the Mia/SD game because of the switch to the neutral site. All plays on this game were dependent on there being a "home" or "road" team.

The breakdown of last week:

System #3: 1-0 (no play on NO, they were not the dog)
System #4: 1-0
System #7: 0-1
System #8: 2-0
System #9: (no plays)
System #12: (no plays)
System #15: 0-1 (no play on SD)
System #16: 1-0
System #18: 2-2
System #19: 0-1 (previously unbeaten system!)
System #19a: 0-2
System #24: 1-0
System #27: 1-0
System #31: (no play on Pitt, they were not the dog)
System #33: 1-0
System #35: 1-0
System #36: 2-2
System #37: 1-2

There are a lot fewer plays this week. No particular reason for that, it just happened that way. San Fran comes up 3 times; NYJ, Detroit and Arizona twice each. Denver also comes up twice, but New England comes up once on another system.

Here are this week's system plays:

System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).

Play on: Arizona

System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).

Play on: Miami (if favored by 3 or less)

System #12 - Play on a Monday Night home team that was on the road last week if their opponent was at home last week (84-46-2, 64.6% since '80).

Play on: Denver

System #13 - Play on a Monday Night home team whose opponent won it's last game SU @ home (60-34-2, 63.8% since '85).

Play on: Denver

System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62% since 1983).

Play on: NY Jets (if it meets the criteria)

System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 53-85-5, 61.6% Unders --- O/U 27-45-3, 62.5% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**

Play the Under on the games involving: NY Giants, Carolina, St Louis

System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (73-44 ATS, 62.4% since '92). **updated**

Play on: Detroit, Atlanta

System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (47-30 ATS, 61.0% since '92). **updated**

Play on: San Francisco

System #24 - Play on the home underdog when both teams have winning records, or both teams have losing records (~70% since ???)

Play on: NY Jets, Detroit, Arizona

System #34 - Play on a home dog, if they lost SU as a road favorite last week (13-4-1, 76.5% since '98). **updated**

Play on: San Francisco

System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.

Play on: San Francisco

System #37 - Play on a road team that has a bye the following week (17-8-1, 68% since '02). **updated**

Play on: New Orleans, New England

 

[MrChristo]

Great stuff as always, GM.

One question though? Do the Jets and Giants really count since they aren't exactly 'home' and 'away'?

Good luck this week.

 

[GM]

Hey Mr. C,

Ya, I thought of that too. But as far as systems records go, I think it has to be counted. One thing to remember...it's the Jets' season-ticket holders who get tickets for the game. So the crowd should still be more Jets than Giants fans.

Whether you play it or not is another matter. I only play a few of these myself and almost never just because it's a "system", without anything else to back it up.

 

[Billy Barooooooo]

GM do you factor in Bye weeks.

Green Bay has scored 93 in its last 3 games.

Thanks Again for taking the time to post this information.

BB

 

[Billy Barooooooo]

GM,
Also noticed these plays favor the home dog. Of the 6 Home dogs 5 factor into your systems plays.

Jets
Detroit
Arizona
Atlanta
San Francisco

Road Favs ATS : 21 - 9 - 0 Road Favorites hitting at 70%
Pretty Sure this is correct. If not feel free to correct me.
Like you plays look for the home dogs to come out barking this week.

BB

 

[MrChristo]

Ahaaa...

Ahaaa...

...Yep.
I was more worried about familiarity with the surroundings/turf etc.
Wasn't even thinking about the crowd noise! :withstupi

 

[Umakethecall]

GOOD LUCK

GOOD LUCK

 

[GM]

Hey Billy -

I spotted that too, but purposely omitted it. I've got to admit, I am a little unclear on these "over 90 pts" plays, and that's why there is no record listed for them.

I've seen this system listed on many different boards, but everyone's got a different interpretation of it. Some people say you must score over 90 pts and all three games must be wins. Others say you must have a minimum of 30 pts scored in each and every game, or it's not a play. Or all of the above.

In the case of GB, they scored 35, 34, 24...and then had a bye after that to boot. And the last 2 of those games were both losses. All of that added together seemed to be a bit too much for it to really count for the system. I think the system is designed to pick out teams that are really on a roll or are really overvalued. But GB's got no momentum at all at the moment when you really look at it. This is pretty much the first time I've arbitrarily omitted a play. I suppose the way the system is written you could make an argument that it should qualify.

As for whether or not byes factor in...I try to use the system as it is written literally. Some systems say "the team's previous game", while others say "last week's game". If it says the latter, I wouldn't count it if "last week" was a bye.

Re: Road fav record ATS - I have it at 22-8 for the year. Depends what closing line you use, but that's close I think.

 

[JohnHiRoller]

Hey guys great conversation, I have the following for 02 and 03 ytd.
02: Road Favs: 33
Road Dogs: 88
Home Dogs: 51
Home Favs: 75

03: Road Favs: 24 ( Unbelievable )
Road dogs: 37 ( in line with last year )
Home dogs: 9 ( I am getting killed here )
Home Favs: 40

The net of all this is the road favs are covering at a incredible rate, while the home dogs are getting killed. My asssumption is that the teams lacking will eventually come back to the mean. Now if I can stretch my bank roll long enough for it to catch up. Great work guys and thank you for allowing me to join in.


JHR.

 

[GM]

Really good day for the plays today, 10-3-1. This always happens when I hardly play any of them. Unfortunately I hardly got any plays in at all, just whatever I already had in by Friday night. At the moment it doesn't really matter to me though.

My 93-year old grandfather had a heart attack Saturday and I was with him in the hospital all day yesterday and through the night, til 11 o'clock this morning. He's ok for now I think, but of course still in hospital. He's a fighter. This was his third heart attack - BUT - his previous two were in 1975 and 1980! Total lifestyle change, and 23 years later, he's still here, and still fighting.

Up until this year, he was still climbing the stairs of his 24-storey condo, all the way from the ground floor to the top every single day. An absolutely unbelieveble person, so I am hoping he will be ok.

If you ever needed someone to be an inspiration to you, my grandfather would be the man. Wish the old man luck for me.

Cheers.

 

[Got5onIt]

GL to you and your grandfather GM. Hope he's doing well.

 

[Allnet]

Outstanding system day. I didn't post any pixs, got very busy on an out of town electrical project at one of my kid's places. There weren't too many games that I really liked so didn't seem to matter. Just before noon, feet got to itching , pulled out a print out of the plays, made a phone call, bingo a big winning day. Just wanted to say thanks for your work. Some of those games were on some ugly teams. Det, Ariz,SF, and NO. Ugly is beautiful this morning.

 

[GM]

Glad it helped Allnet.

 

[Lester Diamond]

Gm God bless you and your grandfather. I can't tell you how much I miss mine!!