Gotta say I was shocked by your Bengals play last night. Seemed totally against your style! I just assumed you were fading yourself based on your history this year in prime time games! GL this weekend. You'll get it back!
LOL, no, I don't fade myself.
I know Miami was the standard "fade the public" game, but that was just getting way too much hype for me last night. I have seen a lot of these exact plays lose this year, where it becomes so popular to fade the obvious, that the other side becomes the obvious :scared - see a bunch of games last week for that. The best fade strategies come when the people cannot take it anymore - like the Rams game MOnday night. They saw all the faves win easily, and they just wanted to get a piece of an easy win themselves. You didn't even see the "sharp" or "fade the public" people backing the Rams.
At any rate, I keep saying, you cannot use this tool/angle alone and except to be profitable. You need to pick you spot with the RLMs and good situations. Last night was a coin flip, and the game proved it - that one easily could have gone either way. I'm not dropping anyone huge praise for "calling" that one last night. I never get too excited about my wins unless I am clearly on the right side and/or I really beat the opening number. The people who say the only rigth side is the winning side, are just not accurate, in my opinion. You need to get high EV plays and you will win in the long run. Again, to liken it to poker, you may have her called with 79o pre and ran out a straight to crack Aces, but you still made the WRONG play and will lose money with plays like that. (That is generally speaking, nothing to do with the game last night.)
I def contradict this theory, by playing too many games and "flipping a coin" too often - but there is an entertainment value for me too that offsets the lack of edge - sort of :00hour
At any rate, it was a good night in college and NBA, so I hope you tailed... GL buddy!
:toast:
