week 9

[EXTRAPOLATER]

2025 NFL: 71-87-2 +355.10 (latest, wk8: 13-24 -339.50)
--straight: 22-18-2 [sides: 19-17-1 (fave:14-14-1, dog:5-3) totals: 1-0-1 (ov:x-y, un:1-0-1) tt 1-0-0 (over:1-0) player props: 1-1]
--teasers: 37-34 [6, 6.5 & 7pts: 14-20, T3/10: 17-11, T4/13: 6-3]
--parlays: 12-35
===*===

Patriots -5 -110 220/200
Lions -8.5 -104 208/200
Cowboys -3 +110 100/110
=528(5)

T2/6 ravens -1.5 / Lions -2.5 -130 130/100
T3/10 ravens@Dolphins ov41 / colts@Steelers ov40 / Packers -3.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 ravens@Dolphins ov41 / broncos@Texans un50 / chargers pk -130 65/50
T3/10 ravens@Dolphins ov41 / Rams -4 / chiefs +9 -130 65/50
=325(4)

P2 Texans -125 / chiefs -125 <+224> 50/112
=50(1)

===

Not much for words, presently. Long day at the hospital and still tripping on whatever anesthetic they put me under with. Gotta get me some of that. Goes well with a nice sativa.

Fwiw, here's copy and paste of same craziness I posted last week; my notes for first look.

Info is W-L/AVG. points for-against (strength of schedule) opponent passer rating.
Again, at the end, it the Totally Unreliable Spread Handicaps (TUSH) based on predictive power ratings from 3 rather prominent sources. This time I including zero home-field advantage, as opposed to the flat 3's given last week.

NFL week 9 (W-L/avPF-PA(sos;1=hardest,32=easiest)opr + if sig improve L3, - if sig decline L3)TUSH no home adjusts!

thurs 8:15 ravens(2-5/24.8-30(1)103.7)@Dolphins(2-6/21.7-26.9(21)109.4+)balt-6/-6.7/-2
sun 1pm:
bears(4-3/24-26.4(23)98.6)@Bengals(3-5/21.7-31.6(18)102.5)chi-2.9/-3.1/-1.5
49ers(5-3/20-20.5(10)102.0)@Giants(2-6/21.6-26.9(7)93.1-)sf-4.9/NYG-1/sf-3.2
falcons(3-4/17.1-22(20)85.8- ) -@- Patriots (6-2/26.6-18.2(32)97.0+)NE-5/-4/-2.8
colts(7-1/33.7-19.2(30)86.9)@Steelers(4-3/25-25(24)97.8)ind-5.8/-5.2/-2.9
panthers(4-4/19.2-24(28)88.4)@Packers(5-1-1/27.6-21.4(12)94.3-)GB-10/-9.7/-8.7
vikings(3-4/22.1-23.1(29)104.0--)@Lions(5-2/30.7-21.5(2)90.5)DET-8.5/-6.8/-6.5
broncos(6-2/25.8-18.9(25)81.0+)@Texans(3-4/21.8-14.7(5)70.7+)HOU-1.5/den-1.8/HOU-0.6
chargers(5-3/23.5-21.6(15)78.5)@Titans(1-7/13.7-28.7(3)104.7--)lac-10.5/-11.6/-11.3
---
4:05 jaguar(4-3/20.8-22.1(9)85.7--)s@Raiders(2-5/14.7-25.7(16)98.1-)jax-6.4/-4.1/-3.4
4:05 saints(1-7/16-26.1(19)102.1+)@Rams(5-2/25-16.7(4)84.6)LAR-15/-12.9/-12.2
4:25 chiefs(5-3/26.7-16.4(11)88.6)@Bills(5-2/29.5-20.8(31)89.4)kc-1.8/-4/-2.6
8:20 seahawks(5-2/27.5-19.4(17)84.5-)@Commanders(3-5/23.4-24.7(22)104.9-)sea-2.7/-1.3/-5.3
mon 8:15 cardinals(2-5/21.8-22(27)85.8)@Cowboys(3-4-1/30.7-31.2(13)112.0+)DAL-0.4/-2.4/-1.6
--byes:Browns,Jets,Eagles,Buccaneers
===

Good Luck

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[MadJack]

Long day at the hospital and still tripping on whatever anesthetic they put me under with

Colonoscopy?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Colonoscopy?

No. Had one of those 17 or 18 years ago; that was a nothing-burger.
I actually said no to anesthetic for that. Why can't I spell ana...

Gave me a needle and a face-breather see-ya, this time round.
Tried to imagine what a capital punishee might feel like.
Woke up though.

Go Blue Jays!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

0-3 -195 so far, with a leg to stand on with that Ravens -1.5. Really needed the points on that grab. Could have used one lonely touchdown in that last quarter. Onward.

===
colts -3 -109 109/100
chargers Oronde Gadsden II anytime TD +150 40/60
Raiders +3 -117 117/100
chiefs -125 150/120
seahawks -3 -102 204/200
=620(5)

Got some teaser and parlay madness I'm just not quite right finalizing. Need to do some silly math.

Speaking of silly math, I have some complaints about Opponent Passer Rating to gripe about, if I get the energy, and appropriate angle. I'm looking for some advanced metric of Adjusted Opponent Passer Rating, allegedly available but maybe not quite what I'm looking for. There are several examples--this season--of excellent OPRs from teams that have faced a slew of horrible QBs, as well as a few much worse OPRs from teams who have faced a much better slate of QBs. If I had a strength of schedule that was specifically for QBs faced then that would suffice. I could go game-by-game and attempt a rather complicated calculation, but there must be a source, out there, that has already done such work. Might help as the eye test failed me last week. Let the rabbits wear glasses.

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--I can't eat the crickets; hide from them after 7 minutes

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hindsight and under Roger Maris. If I can't hit totals, when I am getting an extra 10 points, in either direction, then something really wrong is going on here.

===
T3/10 bears@Bengals ov41 / colts@Steelers ov40 / vikings@Lions ov37.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 49ers@Giants un59 / panthers@Packers un55 / broncos@Texans un50 -130 65/50
T3/7 49ers@Giants un56 / Lions -2.5 / chargers -3 +120 50/60
T3/10 Patriots +4 / Packers -3.5 / Rams -4 -130 65/50
T3/10 colts@Steelers ov40 / Packers -3.5 / Cowboys +9 -130 65/50
T3/10 colts +7 / broncos@Texans un50 / chargers pk -130 65/50
T3/7 Packers -6.5 / chargers -3 / Rams -7 +120 50/60
=425(7)

Close to last week's risk level but irrational exuberance on my overstay is foreseen. I was raised on parlays--with a 150-cent line--but I converted. Apologetic math.

Procrastination von Klaus Meine brunette.

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[EXTRAPOLATER]

===
P2 bears -141 / Patriots -6 +105 <+250> 50/125.19
P2 bears Colston Loveland anytime TD +310
/ Patriots Kayshon Boutte anytime TD +220 <+1212> 20/242.40
P2 bears -3 +111 / colts -3 -109 <+304> 50/152.29
P3 colts Tyler Warren ov54.5 receiving yards -110
/ Raiders Brock Bowers ov49.5 receiving yards -115
/ Cowboys Jake Ferguson ov38.5 receiving yards -117 <+562> 20/112.39
P2 Lions Jahmyr Gibbs ov98.5 rushing + receiving yards -115
/ chargers Oronde Gadsden II ov48.5 receiving yards -117 <+247> 50/123.37
P2 Lions -8.5 -106 / Raiders +131 <+349> 50/174.46
P2 chiefs -125 / seahawks -3 +101 <+261> 50/130.90
=290(7)

Steppin' up if satiated.
I was in Calgary the last time the Blue Jays won the Series.
(surreal to be in a City with two (or even !*%$# one) Stanley Cup appearances, '86 & '89)

No changes are permanent.

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