Week five

[JEFF]

Starting with:

DEN -5, 4 Units

Like the broncos in this spot. COming off that embarassing loss, theyre going to be fired up and ready to go. SD, meanwhile, looks primed for a letdown.

-Broncos have gone 6-2 SU and ATS at Mile High each of last 2 years (2-0,1-1 this year), and just one of those losses came against an AFC West team. Of the 12 wins 10 have been by more than 6 points. Not a the reason for the play, just a note of their Mile High advantage.

Seau didnt practice again Friday, and may be very limited. I think the Chargers have feasted on some weak run defenses, and Denver is tough against the run. Pressure on Brees to really perform here, and unless Tomlinson has another huge game, I don't see them scoring enough points to pull off the upset. So I'm thinking DEN by 7-10 points in this one.

 

[JEFF]

Steelers +3.5, 3 units

Like them a lot better with Maddox in there, and I think he'll seize his chance to finally start. Steelers should open up the passing game, and NO will have trouble guarding the in man D.

PIT needs a win here, and can put behind them and awful start by doing so. Steelers have also been an excellent road team against out of Division team, and has covered 6 of last 7 in that scenario. Also, Haslett is a former Cowher coordinator, so I'm sure the old coach will do anything not to let his disciple beat him.

New Orleans will be hurt without their top big play threat. Stallworth had a TD in all four games, and he is out. I don't imagine Pathon or old-@ss Jake Reed are going to match his production.

Looking at the over here as well, but not enough yet to make a play.

((Edited to note that I got the 3.5 at betonsports, won on the hook but forgot to edit earlier and thought I had listed it at 3.5 not 3))

Washington +5.5, 2 units

Tennesse is a shell of its former self. George is not the same player anymore,and Mason is out. Skins off a bye week. Wuerffel scares me,but I think the ole' ballcoach will yank him if he screws up. Just don't see Tennesse being favored by more than a FG here.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

GL today jeff!!!

 

[jmizeus]

both look good jeff-gl! my take on the sd/den game! noticed over the years when a big match-up comes up the following week,that if u watch both teams closely and see who covers the week before-is a pretty go against the next week!

denver obviously looked ahead of baltimore and lost outright

san diego won outright over new england!

system works in denvers favor-gl!

not playing denver-but would if i had to-but do have them in a ml-parlay

 

[JEFF]

Jmizeus- I agree last week's results are the main reason for the DEN play. I just think it sets the stage for a resounding win. May tease Den +1 and CLE -.5, which looks darn good tome.


Adding DAL/NYG Under 35 2 units

Pitt/NO over 44 3 units

Browns -6.5 4 units

nfl ytd 24-23, -10.9 units

 

[GM]

Good luck this week Jeff!

(Actually, Good luck next week too, no reason to limit it to one week. And the week after that...and....)

 

[JEFF]

Adding

NYJ +3.5 2.5 units

COntrarian play. Huge consesnus and the line hasnt moved. Also NY 9-1 ATS before bye. Pennington provides a big spark today IMO.

 

[DIMEDADDY]

SWEET

SWEET

NICE WORK JEFF, GL IN YOUR LATE PLAYS

DIME:toast:

 

[JEFF]

Reasoning for the Cleveland play

Reasoning for the Cleveland play

If you go back and look at last season and the first few weeks of this one, these two teams have something in common: When they win, they cover, and when they lose, they lose ATS.

I don't have my records with me here, but if you check it out you'll see thats the case about 90 % of the time for both teams in that span.

Also, I think the Ravens shot their load on MNF. They still suck, and Cleveland still gets crazy when Modell's team comes to town. I'll say 24-10 Browns.

 

[EARVIN]

Jeff--

I posted this in another thread but to support your point:

Baltimore is 0-15 ats their last 15 under Coach Billick when they lose straight up. Trends aren't always much of an angle but this is the type of trend that I rely on sometimes. Certain teams cover when they win and dont cover when they lose and are involved in games where this occurs. ANd after a couple minutes of research I have just noticed that Cleveland has never failed to cover when they win the game straight up since they came back into the league in '99. 15-0 ats when they win. Baltimore should not be able to pull the big upset back to back weeks on a short week, now in their division. Good luck--

--EARVIN

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

nice day Jeff:toast: