Week one...FIU-North Texas

B

Box and one

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FIU -13.5 over North Texas ******
Big play..will be back next week with a breakdown..this line opened up at -12..it will go up....NT is hurting as usual....playing a conf game as the opener....as crazy as it sounds they are looking ahead to Houston the following week..its their opener in the new NT stadium..what a stadium...now they need some players..FIU should win the Sun with Troy....NT has Dunbar a super running back...FIU will stack the box with 8 players....last yr they beat NT in Denton 34-10. FIU has almost everyone back..NT has new Qb who played one game and broke his leg...Both DT's are green.FIU has the best player in the Sun in Hilton.Can't see NT staying with FIU....FIU wins this by 17-21 pts....love this play..going to Vegas at the end of August....just for this play..and a few more...back later
 
B

Box and one

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Iowa Donk...
Think getting McCarney was a good move....it took him 4 or 5 yrs to get Iowa St on track...he got the job at NT with a huge push from Hayden Fry who hired him at Iowa...MaCarney was an asst Def coach at Florida last yr....he is a defensive coach...give him a few yrs and he might be able to take NT out of the basement..he has some big problems with the talent this year....NT had 2 sacks all last yr from the DL and their top 2 def lineman graduated.I think there Db's had one or two ints...no pass rush what so ever...
NT moves into their new 70 million dollar stadium...after the FIU game vs Houston..that should help in recruiting next yr..
 
B

Box and one

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Leaving for Vegas on Wed..not sure if I have a computer out there....
Love FIU -13.5 over North Texas
NT has a new coach and staff.McCarney comes from Iowa St and I think in time he will be good for their program....but he comes in with a lot of holes...
New QB Thompson who hasn't played at all.He took one snap at Army last yr and broke his leg. I was right there in the stands and didn't see it..all I saw was him being carried off the field....very new and questionable..needs a few games to break in.
NT's top 2 OL are gone.Their top 2 WR's are gone.Carey was good but was thrown off the team.Stradford is the OU speedster who can get open...but he has no hands. the WR's are a big question mark..the defense played better lyr despite the 3-9 record...But NT's biggest problem this yr is..they have no DT's.Both graduated ...nobody has replaced them..they have some freshman trying but that is a big problem..Esp since NT doesn't have a pass rush from its DE's..LB's aren't to bad and secondary has some talent.But with no pass rush this defense will be really tested..
NT does have one of the best RB's in the country in Dunbar.He has over 1,200 yds and in his last 5 games ran over 200 yds 3 times.
Teams will put 8 guys in the box and stop him until NT can get a passing game going.NT's kicking game,PR are ok..
In conclusion..you have all new coaches,new systems,new Qb,half your OL and DL are new.No WR's that are tested...no pass rush....I think in time they will get their act together but...playing FIU on opening day is a tough task....then they have Houston at home in NT's new stadium,then Bama away,Indiana home, and Tulsa away..that is a brutal way to start the season.And FIU is the class of the Sun belt..back tomorrow to talk a little about them.
 
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Box and one

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FIU is the best team in the Sun conf..maybe Troy will challenge...They have a solid OL...one of the best Qb's in Carroll.He is a 5th senior who threw 16 td's for 2,600 yds...He has an accurate arm..as a frosh he almost set a record of 134 completions w/o an int...with protection he could have a big day vs the mean green...at Rb they have Perry who ran for 800 yds.They are loaded at Rb with 3 other guys that can run...they play 4 backs.Panthers best player is wr Ty Hilton.A 1st round pick he is one of the best players in the country..listed as the 10th best impact player...He was POYr in the Sun...He's 5'10,lightning quick,great hands and gets seperation even when double teamed.He is also a KR and has 5,600 all purpose yds..He scored 5 td's in the air,4 rushes and 2 kr's...he'll get 2 or 3 vs NT
FIU defense is solid also with a lot of starters back from lyr.In fact they return 15 starters from last yr...DL is good....LB are the weakest but they have so many athletic,quick players plus a few juco's..DB's are solid with depth...
Lyr FIU led NT 27-3 at halftime @ NT...the final score was 37-10...the FIU offense will be tough to contain.Good Qb,solid RB's and the top Wr...If NT brings up their safety to double team Ty,Perry and co will run all over them.With no pass rush Carroll will pick apart NT's db's.Do not think NT can put on any pass rush.
FIU will stack the box to stop Dunbar...they have no fear in NT's passing game...Dunbar will break a few and will score but that won't be enough to play catchup.
Also a side note..not that NT is looking ahead but they open up their new stadium next week vs Houston..So much talk about that..To open up your season vs a conf team wasn't in the cards.But NT wanted to open up vs a big name team so they changed the schedule a few yrs ago.

It's a bad matchup for NT vs FIU...Last yr NT gave up 41,49,and 49 pts in last 4 games..one was vs KSU though...I see a 37-14 game...somewhere like that...going to Vegas to repeat last yrs NT-Clemson game..the line was -22 or -23....it went up to -25 or -26 by game time...I got my play in about 2 weeks before just like this game..Clemson won 35-10....and covered..what a nice flight home...GL..back next week..
 
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Box and one

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Out here in Vegas..wow..its hot 104,106 and today 112....but everyone says its a "dry heat"...112 is 112..no matter what.....FIU line is still -13.5 at Hilton and "M"...its -14 everywhere else..think it will go up.....love South Carolins -19.5 over ECU...when I get back will explain...I'm missing the stormmmmm...hurricane or 112...I'll take the 112...everywhere has AC...
 
joefrog91

joefrog91

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I wasn't going to play this game, but you've sold me. :toast:

Too bad I have to wait until Wed to lay it down though. Using a new local suggested to me by a co-worker. He will start taking calls this Wed and I'm not using online this year. Hope the line doesn't go up before then.
 
joefrog91

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Rah, Rah, TCU!
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Yeah, I stumbled across that site one day. Tried to respond to you there, but said I had to add you as a friend.
 
C

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I know you know them well Box, but NTX was 4-0 ATS as a dog between 10 and 14 1/2 points last year. FIU almost looks to easy, so maybe it will be. Not playing either side so will sure be pulling for you. I wish I was out there with you, enjoy yourself...:toast:
 
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B

Box and one

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Cruncher..I know the trends and numbers...but I can find just as many the other way...their new coach McCarney as a "new head coach is 3-17 ats as a conf rd dog of 13 or more pts..NT is 5-2 ats in last 7 rd games...but 9-19 in last 28,8-19 ats in September.
I look at trends but like most of us you can use them in so many different ways..One huge trend in this game is the over-under....big time trend in the under on both teams....biggest trend for me....I'm 3-0 flying out to Vegas making one huge play...that's in the last 7 years...lol
Wrote a lot of boring stuff on this game..this is my final thoughts...NT after their scrimmage announced last week the starting lineup... On the OL" not one single player is left in the same spot he played in last yr".Center went to RT,RT-LT,LG-RG,etc...these guys have had one week and a scrimmage taking snaps." NT's only weapon is Dunbar and these 5 guys are going to have to open holes for him.
And one more thing,both guards are freshman.One is a true fr and the other a red shirt one...how many D-1 schools in the country start 2 frosh at Gds...and these guys have Houston,Bama,and Tulsa next...and to top that off last yr the FIU defense held Dunbar to 30 yds,a season low...they put 8 guys in the box and stopped him cold...FIU has 15 starters back from last yrs team that beat NT 34-10 in Denton...Hilton is one of the best WR-PR in the nation....NT cannot pass rush...will not be able to stop Carroll or Perry in the backfield....FIU wins this by 3 tds or more...
Be back with a few more games...very few words...though..GL
 
B

Box and one

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Waited a long time for this play..a lot of handicappers in Power Sweep,etc are all predicting North Texas to cover.....when you read them I start to get nervous...FIU has never been favored by over 13 pts,etc,etc....but I'm sticking to my guns...will come back after the game to give myself a small kudo or cry and apologize....
FIU -13.5 over North Texas ******
The game is on ESPN 3..what is that and where is it? Good luck to everyone.....
 
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