Week One Plays

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Carl Spackler

Guest
YTD: 1-1, -.2 Units

Utah -5 over BYU (2 Units) - BYU put together some dud offensive performances against good defenses last year, and this year's Utah defense is deep at all three levels. Anything less than a TD provides some very strong value.

South Dakota State +12.5 over Minnesota (2 Units) - Nice opportunity for a premiere FCS program. I expect SDS to stay close throughout the game.

Be back with some Friday games as well.
 
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hawkeye

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Forum Member
Jun 29, 2000
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gl this year Spack--this BYU/Ute game has been close the last 5-6 years--big expectations for Utah this year. BYU blew a big lead last year.
 
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Carl Spackler

Guest
Rutgers over 35 TT (3 Units) - UMass had one of the worst defenses in the nation last year by finishing lin the bottom 10 in FBS in most statistical categories. Most importantly, they didn't just give up a bunch of yards but also made sure to give up a shit ton of points on a weekly basis. This is Rutgers' opportunity to shine and Ash has to do everything in his power to stay employed.

MTSU/Michigan over 53.5 (5 Units) - Don't understand this number at all as I thought it would be much closer to 60. Two parts to Michigan's team that screams higher totals this year. First, the tempo is going to be much faster and the big play ability due to that tempo is much higher. Second, they are breaking in some new bodies on defense, especially in the back end. Hill can cover one CB spot, but they are thin otherwise, while the LB corp will take a few lumps as well.

Kent State +14.5 (1H) over Arizona State (2 Units) - Kent returns their entire offense (granted, it's a shitty offense) but they at least kept things reasonable other than the trip to Happy Valley last year. They might get worn down in the second half due to the fact that there are mid-July temperatures in the desert right now, but I like them to stay close to a team that lost a lot of their playmaking ability.

South Florida and Nevada are interesting dogs as well...probably pissed away my chance for the best number on the Bulls but I will keep an eye out.
 
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Carl Spackler

Guest
Oregon/Auburn Under 56 (2 Units) - I get nervous playing unders in games that are coin tosses, but I have been waiting for this number and had to jump on it.
 
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Carl Spackler

Guest
Interesting Friday...glad I was not able to grab a good number on South Florida as Charlie Strong made a good case to be the first coach canned. Purdue's meltdown was impressive as well. They will struggle to become bowl eligible with their schedule.

On to Saturday:

East Carolina +17.5 over North Carolina State (1 Unit) - This is a play on the number, so I will keep it at just a unit. I feel like NCSU should struggle a little bit with a lot of key personnel changes...ECU can keep it respectable.

Northwestern +6 over Stanford (2 Units) - Even my disdain for Pat Fitzgerald can't stop me from playing this one. Stanford has fallen off a cliff over the past few years even when they had some NFL talent. NW breaks in a new QB, but he might be the most talented one that Fitz has had.

Boise State/Florida State (1H) under 28 (2 Units) - If the game gets to 56, I will play that too. However, I like this first half total to stay under with the time/location change in addition to what should be an athletic FSU defense.

Toledo ML over Kentucky +320 (1/2 Unit) - Toledo is a popular bet, which probably means they will get buried today. However, Kentucky lost so much production that this is a great opportunity for the Rockets.
 
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Carl Spackler

Guest
Results: 6-4, +10 Units
YTD: 7-5, +9.8 Units

The Northwestern game ranks up there in the worst of the bad beats category...would have hated to have Oregon +4 as well.
 
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lowell

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Jul 6, 2003
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Great work to start the season. Glad I followed you on several of your plays. Thanks
 
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